wxmeddler Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Cold air is gonna hang on.. 50/36/15/0.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 56/42/18/0.08. Gonna stick my my guns on the temps per parcel trajectories. I'm more confident in the high than the low, but I hope for low 40s at 6z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 55/39/17/0.07" Had 40, then 38, then 39 for the low. The warm front will be right on GRR's doorstep by 6z...if it doesn't quite get there the low will be something like 37, if it passes by 6z (less likely) it could well be something like 42 or 43. The high will be late tomorrow evening...I can't believe the consensus high is only 50. There could be a nice mid-level dry slot that keeps rainfall amounts low tomorrow...but wasn't confident enough to go the 0.00" route as radar is indicating there may still be some showers around at 6z tonight...with another chance for a few showers tomorrow evening as the cold front approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Went with 55/37/18/0.15" for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 53/40/20/.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Assuming precip gets to 0.31"+ by 6z (which it should, considering it was at 0.29" at 1z and still raining) and temps don't rise above 41F by 6z (it'll be close but I hope they don't because 39 is my day 2 low forecast) I'll be inside the top 100 and above the national consensus. I thought I was screwed earlier today when the colder low didn't work and the precip underperformed early on, nice to actually see things break well for me (even though I misjudged the low) for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 53/37/16/.08 Wish I went higher on the high but I feel good about the rest. I agree, I'm shocked the consensus high was so low. 50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Another solid batch of precip moving in...I had .55 today ...they are up to .31" as of 3z...but still some work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Another solid batch of precip moving in...I had .55 today ...they are probably up to about .35 or so...still some work to do. Evidently they saw 0.00" last hour so 0.31" so far...around 0.40" seems reasonable. I had 0.40" at first but then jumped down to 0.33" last second...still was a decent call on precip overall...we'll see if it can get any closer to your 0.55". For tomorrow's high I can see 53 or 54 (I have 55) but I can't believe so many went 50 or lower...there's a slim chance that happens...every model is 50+ and I'd certainly take the over with a deepening low to the west and strong WAA most of the day, especially in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Evidently they saw 0.00" last hour so 0.31" so far...around 0.40" seems reasonable. I had 0.40" at first but then jumped down to 0.33" last second...still was a decent call on precip overall...we'll see if it can get any closer to your 0.55". For tomorrow's high I can see 53 or 54 (I have 55) but I can't believe so many went 50 or lower...there's a slim chance that happens...every model is 50+ and I'd certainly take the over with a deepening low to the west and strong WAA most of the day, especially in the evening. Agreed. I'm a little surprised with the 0.00" last hour, but oh well, a few more hours to go yet. I think best case for me is like .44", but we'll see. I agree that it will likely be around .40" for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 51/38/20/0.09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 0.42. Looks to be done too. Ugh. Had a sneaky feeling i was low with .27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Was 26th after yesterday. Need a high of 53 and .09" precip for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Currently dead last at UML for forecasters who haven't missed a forecast.......wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Currently dead last at UML for forecasters who haven't missed a forecast.......wtf?Maybe as the temps, winds and possibly precip come up towards your forecast later you'll come out of the basement? Right now someone who really low balled temps or winds may be showing as doing well today but that won't hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Maybe as the temps, winds and possibly precip come up towards your forecast later you'll come out of the basement? Right now someone who really low balled temps or winds may be showing as doing well today but that won't hold. Ya I just noticed that those who have moved up really low balled the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 That was unfortunate. (for me with .02) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 This is shaping up to be a good day today for me. If the wind and high cooperate, I could have the best score in the nation for the day, and improve my standing by 1000 places or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Now we just need the temperature to creep up a few more degrees and today will go from a disaster to a success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I was 67th after yesterday, by far my best day 1 out of any city. That was a quick little dousing and I hope they don't get too much more rain. If the high and wind cooperate (the RAP shows 925mb winds cranking up to 40-45 knots later out of the south, so I'd really hope we could add 4 degrees to the high and see 15-20 knot sustained winds, I have 17 knots) I would creep into at least the top 20. This is going to be the closest city to me in the whole tournament so I really need to nail it in GRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 went 53/25/17/0 for tomorrow, and for today forecast I thought the warm front was going to come through earlier with the dry slot happening sooner, but overall for this city I am not doing to well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 54/27/24/0. I've lost interest in this city already. Nat Con doing too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 53/26/21/0 Front should be just passing if not a bit through GRR by 6z tonight so we should lose a couple of degrees off of the mid-50's high we'll see later this evening. Went 0" precip for a number of reasons. There are some meager showers along the front right now that aren't producing any measurable rain...don't see a big reason to expect things to intensify much as they approach GRR, and even if they do there's a chance the front is through by 6z. The lake effect setup doesn't support any measurable precip/snow in GRR either. It takes until later in the day for 850mb temps to become cold enough for lake effect processes, and at this point the winds will be shifting to a more unfavorable W to WNW direction...I'm not an expert but I believe GRR does well in SW or WSW flow events. In addition, the airmass will be really dry and lake induced equilibrium levels will be nothing impressive. With winds remaining up and off the lake through tomorrow evening didn't go too cold on the low. Winds may become more NW later tomorrow night and may begin to slacken enough for some radiational cooling to occur, but banked on that happening after 6z. Went decently high on winds as models show about 30 knots at the top of the shallow mixed layer in a CAA regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This is my drop city for the most part right now, so now it's just a matter of making bullish decisions till I get ~-2 to -3 SD. 54/26/19/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 54/25/25/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Tomorrow night's low is tricky with the arctic air settling in. Despite this, we should still have a nice fetch off the lake, which should help to modify and moisten the airmass somewhat. If they do manage to get stuck under a band, they could hold up in the upper 20's before 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 51/25/20/0.00 With that last jump to 53 todays forecast is looking good........but tomorrow's I am not so confident about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm 4th in the country right now. Was about to go 53 on the high for tomorrow, then dropped to 49 last second because of some models having it down to 46 by 6z.... Went 49/27/19/0 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 51/26/23/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 54/25/25/0 I think this is strongly wind-direction dependent. If the wind direction has indeed switched to WSW or SW by 06z, the lake will probably allow it to cool to 50F or so. But if it's more SSWerly still, which is what I'm counting on, it could be even higher than my 54F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.