Mallow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 What's up with all the mistakes this year. Wxchallenge again wrong with precip. Still wrong, showing up as 0.12" instead of 0.14". Someone should email them about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Still wrong, showing up as 0.12" instead of 0.14". Someone should email them about that. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 No WxChallenge this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Don't forget to forecast tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Flat: http://www.heywhatsthat.com/main-0904.html?view=EPBOOVH2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Flat: http://www.heywhatsthat.com/main-0904.html?view=EPBOOVH2 No kidding huh? Thanks for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Also useful: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Flat: http://www.heywhatsthat.com/main-0904.html?view=EPBOOVH2 LOL, yep, thats MI for you. Take out the trees, and we are good to go for tornado viewing - except for the fact that tornadoes are myths/photoshop in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 45/32/17/0.27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 44/31/12/0.14 It got to 41 today, it should get somewhere near 44 if not 45 for the high and 6z high. Solid OV keeps it from dipping below 30 tonight and winds are fairly subduded from the ESE. Precip is today's stretch forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Very tough high forecast tomorrow. Could be anything from 37F to 49F. Went with 46/31/17/0.18... based on days I found in the past that seemed analogous to me, the MOS often busts low on the late 06z temperature for whatever reason in these situations (I would have expected the opposite). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 We'll see how this goes... 41/29/17/0.33" The track of the low pressure doesn't seem to suggest a strong surge northward of the warm front into MI and the NAM/Euro both appear to not get the front to GRR by 6z Wednesday so I went low with the high. With clouds/precip around if the front actually doesn't make it to GRR by 6z Wednesday it wouldn't shock me to see upper 30's, but wanted to cut my losses somewhat in case I'm wrong. The dew point is holding steady around 23 at GRR right now and with an air temp of 33 the wet bulb is somewhere around 29-30 right now off the top of my head. A modest ESE flow shouldn't really advect much moisture into SW MI ahead of the precip this evening and with a few breaks in the clouds and relatively light winds GRR may fall another degree or two...when precip moves in after 6z they should wet bulb into the upper 20's...maybe even a degree or two colder than what I have. There will be a sharp inversion much of the day tomorrow but the NAM appeared to be showing 25 knot winds at the top of the very shallow mixed layer so went a bit high on the winds. As for precip the models show nice lift on the nose of a bit of a LLJ tomorrow evening and advect some decently high mid-level theta-e air into SW MI so if GRR remains north of the warm front through 6z they could get a fair amount of precip tomorrow evening...possibly more than I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Very tough high forecast tomorrow. Could be anything from 37F to 49F. Went with 46/31/17/0.18... based on days I found in the past that seemed analogous to me, the MOS often busts low on the late 06z temperature for whatever reason in these situations (I would have expected the opposite). My verification agreed with a range of 43-46/32-34 (but 31 was possible)/around 17/.24-.48, but the low numbers from .16 to .22 also looked good. Was a real conundrum in terms of precip based on my mos verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 If they get any precipitation tonight (and that seems likely given the returns on radar upstream) KGRR might be able to wet bulb in the 28-30 degree range. The warm front is going to be knocking on the doorstep by 06z tomorrow, so which side KGRR ends up on will probably be the difference between upper 30's and something in the low-mid 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 45/31/17/0.25" Looks like they are already down to 30 so hopefully those clouds hurry up and move in. The warm front looked impressive so I went a little on the high side with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 30/21 at 4z. I'm not sure they'll recover much by 6z as they are partly cloudy right now with easterly winds. Temps fell a good 2-3+ degrees over much of northern IL/southern WI as the precip moved in so with wet bulbs around 27 I'd imagine we should see a drop into the upper 20's after 6z when the precip moves in. The warm frontal timing tomorrow evening and precip amounts concern me but I'm liking my cold low thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Clouds moved in and boom 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Clouds moved in and boom 33F.Yeah...I need to pray for a nice wet bulb cooling when the precip moves in. I figured a 1-2 degree bump when the clouds moved in but don't like the 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks like it will be 32, unless it sneaked in a 31 somewhere in the 12z hour. Precip only .01 so far, not good for those that went high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Went with 43/31/15/.19 for today. Hoping for that sneaky 31 in between hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Up to 0.1" now with plenty of additional rain on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I'm pretty much boned now in terms of precip now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Precipitation is training. I guess I should have went with the higher amounts. Still got .27, but even that looks low now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Precipitation is training. I guess I should have went with the higher amounts. Still got .27, but even that looks low now. Whoops forgot to check where the ASOS was. It's southeast of downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Very tough high forecast tomorrow. Could be anything from 37F to 49F. Went with 46/31/17/0.18... based on days I found in the past that seemed analogous to me, the MOS often busts low on the late 06z temperature for whatever reason in these situations (I would have expected the opposite). Looks like I picked the wrong side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks like I picked the wrong side. HYSPLIT suggests air parcels from NW Ohio will make it into KGRR by 6z. Temps anywhere from 42-46. Hopefully that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Kalamazoo is at 43 with southeasterly winds so I'm not giving up hope of getting low 40s yet. However, it is sure looking like 40-41 at best which is not good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The fun question is what will the temperature at 6z tonight be...because that has a good shot at being the low for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The fun question is what will the temperature at 6z tonight be...because that has a good shot at being the low for tomorrow. Oh it definitely will be the low given the strong WAA expected tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 54/39/18/0.12 Bumped the low down at the last minute after seeing that we are still stuck at 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.