Mallow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Well I had the right idea, wrong dew point. I thought it would pretty much reach the dew point by 06z, and it did (1 degree off)... the dew point was just 4F higher than I thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 And the NAM schooled all of us today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Day 8 went with 37/26/5/0.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Missed today's high by 1 for the 5th time at CON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 42/28/15/0/0.05 Went high on winds as last hurrah, hoping to get lucky with a fast moving front and NW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The low should be 29°F, so in that sense it's definitely wrong. But I'm digging deeper into the wind as well. If you check the 400 PM climate, you'll see MM for the time of high temp. This shows you there was a data outage, and the ASOS then "estimates" the weather elements. They may be correct, they may not be, but they show up as estimated for us. The peak wind for the day is listed as 25 mph (22 knots) but beyond that we won't really ever know the truth. As to why the CLI and CF6 products don't agree, that I have no real answer for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Still no response from the Gray NWS office. Just curious how you reached the office. I don't like hearing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Man...if I had known CON was on the schedule this year I may have had to come out of wxchallenge retirement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 39/29/11/.07 for tomorrow. Wish I went 27. 2.5 error points for today Off by 4 on the wind and that's it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Oh hello high clouds, so nice of you to ruin my forecast. it's momma nature's way of saying hi, and keeping you in line, telling you who's boss. it won't be the first time, and it won't be the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 If you check the 400 PM climate, you'll see MM for the time of high temp. This shows you there was a data outage, and the ASOS then "estimates" the weather elements. They may be correct, they may not be, but they show up as estimated for us. The peak wind for the day is listed as 25 mph (22 knots) but beyond that we won't really ever know the truth. As to why the CLI and CF6 products don't agree, that I have no real answer for. Just curious how you reached the office. I don't like hearing this. Thanks for the response! I sent an email to the "webmaster" at [email protected] yesterday morning. Never got a response. My friend Zach got a hold of the office via Facebook, though, and has since mentioned the 25mph correction to Brad (the WxChallenge manager), so it should all be straightened out as well as can be expected now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Went with 39/28/7/0.07 for the final day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Thanks for the response! I sent an email to the "webmaster" at [email protected] yesterday morning. Never got a response. My friend Zach got a hold of the office via Facebook, though, and has since mentioned the 25mph correction to Brad (the WxChallenge manager), so it should all be straightened out as well as can be expected now. I apologize for the lack of webmaster response. We actually had a winter weather workshop that day and Caribou was providing service backup for us. So nobody at our office noticed the data outage since it was so brief and we weren't actually in operations. Glad we could clean up the climate database a little though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I am going to get screwed with the low I put 42/31/9/.10. Already 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 40/29/12/0.08" Had 30 initially and things started dropping a bit fast by 0z so bumped down a tad. It's at 31 now and I'm not expecting a significant drop the rest of tonight, although a brief break in the clouds may ruin that. Hoping the front comes through fast enough to allow for some gustier NW winds at the end of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 39/29/11/.07 for tomorrow. Wish I went 27. 2.5 error points for today Off by 4 on the wind and that's it... Wouldn't that equate to only 2 points of error? Are you "RHeves" at Plymouth State? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Had 29, but jumped 2 degrees at last minute, because of increasing clouds. 42/31/9/.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Is wxchallenge going to change day 5 winds to 22 knots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Wouldn't that equate to only 2 points of error? Are you "RHeves" at Plymouth State?I was one off the high too which I forgot to mention. Wind ended up at 7kts, so only 1.5 error points yesterday!And yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I'm really hoping for 37/29/5/0.14 to hold, so I can set a new wxchallenge city score record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I was one off the high too which I forgot to mention. Wind ended up at 7kts, so only 1.5 error points yesterday! And yes. Nice job, how are you doing so far today? I completely misread the synoptic evolution of today...I thought that it was a WF giving us the showers and then we could potentially get some breaks in the warm sector. I was very wrong hence 43F won't come close to verifying. Looks like 37 or 38 will be it. And I also gambled with 13 kts on the wind occurring right before 06z tonight. Latest data would seem to indicate it definitely won't be until AFTER 06z that they see wind of that magnitude. All in all though, I'm 26th overall so can't complain too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I'm really hoping for 37/29/5/0.14 to hold, so I can set a new wxchallenge city score record. Congrats man. You were on point at CON, especially on the high temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Nice job, how are you doing so far today? I completely misread the synoptic evolution of today...I thought that it was a WF giving us the showers and then we could potentially get some breaks in the warm sector. I was very wrong hence 43F won't come close to verifying. Looks like 37 or 38 will be it. And I also gambled with 13 kts on the wind occurring right before 06z tonight. Latest data would seem to indicate it definitely won't be until AFTER 06z that they see wind of that magnitude. All in all though, I'm 26th overall so can't complain too much. Nice man! 26th overall is pretty impressive. I am 286 right now but I'm pretty happy with that considering I was down around 800 a few days ago. Today I had 39 because I figured it would play out just like it did. I just should have gone even lower on the max. I'm surprised consensus was so high on the max. Precip I did okay, low I hit right on. Wind will probably kill me also because I was banking on it picking up tonight as well (I had 11kts). All in all though Concord has gone okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Nice man! 26th overall is pretty impressive. I am 286 right now but I'm pretty happy with that considering I was down around 800 a few days ago. Today I had 39 because I figured it would play out just like it did. I just should have gone even lower on the max. I'm surprised consensus was so high on the max. Precip I did okay, low I hit right on. Wind will probably kill me also because I was banking on it picking up tonight as well (I had 11kts). All in all though Concord has gone okay. 286 is pretty damn good if you were around 800. Maybe that damn front will get there in time, I doubt it though. I took a gamble trying to get into the top 10 but it backfired lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 If the wind somehow gets to 12 knots or higher by 6z I'll somehow end up above the national consensus, which would be amazing considering I was like +2.3 coming into today. So come on front! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Dam 38F screwed me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Woo, number one in National Forecaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 What's up with all the mistakes this year. Wxchallenge again wrong with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 After not forecasting a decouple Wednesday night (idiotic mistake, in retrospect, but I had a Dynamics exam the next day and...), I tanked to like 600-something and then guidanced Friday, because at that point, it was over. So much for Norman being my drop city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Finished at 286 after falling all the way to the 800s after day 4. Still got a lot of work to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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