ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Solid day for me. Into the top 10 pending winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Solid day for me. Into the top 10 pending winds. And 1st overall. Nice job. Really thought the winds would verify lower with the hourly observations we had. I thought 13-15 kts was a lock. 16 kts though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 I don't know if same technique will work for tomorrow's high. Seems to be an inversion setup in the morning and hard to break through the rest of the day on top of that high level clouds too. I was getting low 60s for a high lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Here's the parcel backward trajectories for tomorrow's airmass around when the high should occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Giving the fact the winds are calm and skies are clear it will have no problem decoupling tonight so I went 54/23/9/0 for tomorrow. Edit: I upped the low by 1 degree looking at last minute sref data, and reasoning for upping the low was the fact that the dew point temperature will be constant in the low 20's along with increasing RH numbers. 54/24/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 55/25/6/0 Clouds moving in slowly by 9z should prevent the real low 20's and looking at the wind chart that Mallow posted and with the slight inversion. I think 6 or 7 kts is reasonable. What would be better is if it slammed down to 23 then came back up to 25 at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 55/23/10/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Very low confidence forecast... 54/26/9/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I couldn't find a higher high than 57 because of the high clouds tomorrow and possible inversion in the morning, but I guess I wouldn't be surprised with a high of 59, but more likely 55-57. Decided not to use dry adiabatic lapse to bring down the temp because of the cloudiness unlike today which was perfectly clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Wow already 26! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I hate concord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 55/22/10/0 I wonder if they will get buried in the inversion and struggle to get into the low 50s? There's also the high cloud factor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 A few more hours of clear before high clouds move in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 54/23/13/0 Lots of variables here that could result in a bust. I had a physics midterm at 7PM local time aka 0z so I didn't have time to look deep into the forecast today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Need to be careful...Day 3 low is now 24. Anyone who went warmer with Thursday's low (including myself) may be in a bit of trouble over the next hour and a half. Edit: 23 as of 5z, maybe they'll sneak down to 22 over the next 50 minutes? Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Day 3 = 21 and Day 4 = 19 LMAO. Wish I looked deeper into day 4 low. Didn't really notice the chance of going calm and clear for a long period of time. Knew about the pwats and dry air advecting in but not the calm nature of the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Having fun yet? Does the next forecast day start 06z Monday? Nice little fropa to deal with coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 The low helped me move up a ton even though I was 3 too high....only 11 people had 19 or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 forecasting for kcon is like forecasting for Riverton a few years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Talk about pulling a rabbit out of a hat lol. Went 55/19/7 so I moved up almost 500 spots and well into the top 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 56F for a high and 5 knots for winds but just recently we got a 5mph wind on the ob so maybe 6 knots or more we'll see tomorrow morning per climo. Still can't believe it got to 56F, wanted only 2 error on the high this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Thoughts for tomorrow's forecast......a 6z high (possibly) and a 6z low (likely). Last hour they were sitting at 47 and suddenly mostly cloudy with more clouds moving in it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 In an effort to move up a lot tomorrow going with 43/27/25/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Low confidence forecast.. Ran out of time to do everything I wanted. 6z high and 6z low. NW wind. Perhaps should of gone 26-28 on the low. 40/25/23/T(0) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 41/27/26kts/0.00. Another NW wind day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Went with 44/29/24/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 41/27/28/0. I know I'm probably way too bold with my wind forecast, but I need to make up ground and both NAM and GFS have some serious winds that are perfectly aligned in the boundary layer so I'm hoping they can mix them down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 42/24/22/0 Worried most about the low, but I think we can get there by 6z tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 41/27/28/0. I know I'm probably way too bold with my wind forecast, but I need to make up ground and both NAM and GFS have some serious winds that are perfectly aligned in the boundary layer so I'm hoping they can mix them down. Only person in the game to put 28 kts for their wind. I thought I was being bold with 25. Best of luck to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 40 / 25 / 25 / 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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