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WxChallenge 2013-14


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Ugh. With the winds from the SE and DP's rising I didn't want to go 15-18 but I think the atmosphere will de-couple as the inversion moves up the valley. I went with 20 for the low but I wouldn't be at all surprised if it only goes to 23 or 24. The high is pretty clear signal and didn't see any reason to deviate from MOS to much, went with 44. Winds, I would of gone 20-21 if it was slightly more NW but since it's not blowing up or down the valley, I went with 19.

44/20/19/0

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49/22/19/0

 

Thinking tomorrow is going to be warm. Looked at air parcels 300m, 600m, and 900m using HYSPLIT backward trajectories. All of them suggested a temperature around 50 at KCON tomorrow around 19z. We shall see though because it isn't an exact science trying to use 10C/km dry adiabatic lapse with temperature of a location at the surface close to the parcel location based on the model, but I chose to take the 300m parcel which was around southeast Illinois. I found an ASOS pretty darn close to the point with a high of 41F today, which is 5C and the parcel began at 800m before coming down to 300m at KCON by 19z. Sometimes this method works and sometimes it fails. Also feel tomorrows winds aloft are stronger than today and we verified at 16 knots so went higher for day 3.  

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49/22/19/0

 

Thinking tomorrow is going to be warm. Looked at air parcels 300m, 600m, and 900m using HYSPLIT backward trajectories. All of them suggested a temperature around 50 at KCON tomorrow around 19z. We shall see though because it isn't an exact science trying to use 10C/km dry adiabatic lapse with temperature of a location at the surface close to the parcel location based on the model, but I chose to take the 300m parcel which was around southeast Illinois. I found an ASOS pretty darn close to the point with a high of 41F today, which is 5C and the parcel began at 800m before coming down to 300m at KCON by 19z. Sometimes this method works and sometimes it fails. Also feel tomorrows winds aloft are stronger than today and we verified at 16 knots so went higher for day 3.  

Agree completely with the high. 48/23/16/0

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49/22/19/0

 

Thinking tomorrow is going to be warm. Looked at air parcels 300m, 600m, and 900m using HYSPLIT backward trajectories. All of them suggested a temperature around 50 at KCON tomorrow around 19z. We shall see though because it isn't an exact science trying to use 10C/km dry adiabatic lapse with temperature of a location at the surface close to the parcel location based on the model, but I chose to take the 300m parcel which was around southeast Illinois. I found an ASOS pretty darn close to the point with a high of 41F today, which is 5C and the parcel began at 800m before coming down to 300m at KCON by 19z. Sometimes this method works and sometimes it fails. Also feel tomorrows winds aloft are stronger than today and we verified at 16 knots so went higher for day 3.  

 

WRT the winds, my concern is that climatologically speaking, strong NW winds are MUCH more favorable than strong SW winds. Westerlies can be strong, but are generally pretty uncommon. That being said, tomorrows winds should come around to westerly for at least a few hours during the day as the westerlies from aloft are mixed to the surface. Not sure there will be enough time though to reach their best potential tomorrow.

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Short term guidance is keying in on a 3-5z low, then mid level and surface WAA really kick in. Wouldn't be surprised to see 20-22 by 4z, then 22-24 by 6z.
Right, however if you get that inversion early, you can sustain it throughout the night, especially in a valley like Concord. My hope is for a sunrise low.
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Hmm... although I couldn't find any great analogs, the days I found that were sort of analogous would argue for maybe 45-47. Kinda wishing I didn't go with 44F now. :P

 

Also wishing I didn't let that 00z obs influence me to go from 24F down to 23F on the low.

 

Same boat, if I could remake my forecast it would be 46/24/17/0

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Hmm... although I couldn't find any great analogs, the days I found that were sort of analogous would argue for maybe 45-47. Kinda wishing I didn't go with 44F now. :P

 

Also wishing I didn't let that 00z obs influence me to go from 24F down to 23F on the low.

 

 

Same boat, if I could remake my forecast it would be 46/24/17/0

 

 

Original forecast I had a low 23........over corrected when I saw the drop to 24..

 

I had 24 in for a few minutes too, but took it down to 22 when the 0z ob came in.  Now I'm wishing I had kept it at 24.  Oh well.

 

Edit: 45/22/17/0.00

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Up the road in Laconia they're doing 17 G 26...not sure if that means anything for Concord.

 

This would suggest maybe it doesn't mean anything for KCON:

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/windrose/climate/monthly/11/LCI_nov.png

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/windrose/climate/monthly/11/CON_nov.png

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/windrose/climate/monthly/11/MHT_nov.png

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Crap, wish I had looked at those before I made my forecast. Congrats, good job on the wind. Can't believe it's already at 48F. :axe:

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