wxmeddler Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Ugh. With the winds from the SE and DP's rising I didn't want to go 15-18 but I think the atmosphere will de-couple as the inversion moves up the valley. I went with 20 for the low but I wouldn't be at all surprised if it only goes to 23 or 24. The high is pretty clear signal and didn't see any reason to deviate from MOS to much, went with 44. Winds, I would of gone 20-21 if it was slightly more NW but since it's not blowing up or down the valley, I went with 19. 44/20/19/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 49/22/19/0 Thinking tomorrow is going to be warm. Looked at air parcels 300m, 600m, and 900m using HYSPLIT backward trajectories. All of them suggested a temperature around 50 at KCON tomorrow around 19z. We shall see though because it isn't an exact science trying to use 10C/km dry adiabatic lapse with temperature of a location at the surface close to the parcel location based on the model, but I chose to take the 300m parcel which was around southeast Illinois. I found an ASOS pretty darn close to the point with a high of 41F today, which is 5C and the parcel began at 800m before coming down to 300m at KCON by 19z. Sometimes this method works and sometimes it fails. Also feel tomorrows winds aloft are stronger than today and we verified at 16 knots so went higher for day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Dang, 24 and winds S @ 2 kts on the 00z ob. That's a de-couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 49/22/19/0 Thinking tomorrow is going to be warm. Looked at air parcels 300m, 600m, and 900m using HYSPLIT backward trajectories. All of them suggested a temperature around 50 at KCON tomorrow around 19z. We shall see though because it isn't an exact science trying to use 10C/km dry adiabatic lapse with temperature of a location at the surface close to the parcel location based on the model, but I chose to take the 300m parcel which was around southeast Illinois. I found an ASOS pretty darn close to the point with a high of 41F today, which is 5C and the parcel began at 800m before coming down to 300m at KCON by 19z. Sometimes this method works and sometimes it fails. Also feel tomorrows winds aloft are stronger than today and we verified at 16 knots so went higher for day 3. Agree completely with the high. 48/23/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Dang, 24 and winds S @ 2 kts on the 00z ob. That's a de-couple. Short term guidance is keying in on a 3-5z low, then mid level and surface WAA really kick in. Wouldn't be surprised to see 20-22 by 4z, then 22-24 by 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 49/22/19/0 Thinking tomorrow is going to be warm. Looked at air parcels 300m, 600m, and 900m using HYSPLIT backward trajectories. All of them suggested a temperature around 50 at KCON tomorrow around 19z. We shall see though because it isn't an exact science trying to use 10C/km dry adiabatic lapse with temperature of a location at the surface close to the parcel location based on the model, but I chose to take the 300m parcel which was around southeast Illinois. I found an ASOS pretty darn close to the point with a high of 41F today, which is 5C and the parcel began at 800m before coming down to 300m at KCON by 19z. Sometimes this method works and sometimes it fails. Also feel tomorrows winds aloft are stronger than today and we verified at 16 knots so went higher for day 3. WRT the winds, my concern is that climatologically speaking, strong NW winds are MUCH more favorable than strong SW winds. Westerlies can be strong, but are generally pretty uncommon. That being said, tomorrows winds should come around to westerly for at least a few hours during the day as the westerlies from aloft are mixed to the surface. Not sure there will be enough time though to reach their best potential tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Apparently we are all bullish on the winds for tomorrow. Considering the National Consensus is 13. It's gunna help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Apparently we are all bullish on the winds for tomorrow. Considering the National Consensus is 13. It's gunna help. Not me. If it's warm (like 48-49), I could see the higher winds verifying, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Short term guidance is keying in on a 3-5z low, then mid level and surface WAA really kick in. Wouldn't be surprised to see 20-22 by 4z, then 22-24 by 6z. Right, however if you get that inversion early, you can sustain it throughout the night, especially in a valley like Concord. My hope is for a sunrise low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Right, however if you get that inversion early, you can sustain it throughout the night, especially in a valley like Concord. My hope is for a sunrise low. Up to 25 now...I think it'll be tough. Leaning toward a 6z low, but it could waffle in the low-mid 20's throughout the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Yeah, I've been running a 3km model twice a day for each city. Noticed my 21Z run had a high of 51, although it has been showing a slight warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Yeah, I've been running a 3km model twice a day for each city. Noticed my 21Z run had a high of 51, although it has been showing a slight warm bias. WRF-EMS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Hmm... although I couldn't find any great analogs, the days I found that were sort of analogous would argue for maybe 45-47. Kinda wishing I didn't go with 44F now. Also wishing I didn't let that 00z obs influence me to go from 24F down to 23F on the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Hmm... although I couldn't find any great analogs, the days I found that were sort of analogous would argue for maybe 45-47. Kinda wishing I didn't go with 44F now. Also wishing I didn't let that 00z obs influence me to go from 24F down to 23F on the low. Same boat, if I could remake my forecast it would be 46/24/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Original forecast I had a low 23........over corrected when I saw the drop to 24.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Hmm... although I couldn't find any great analogs, the days I found that were sort of analogous would argue for maybe 45-47. Kinda wishing I didn't go with 44F now. Also wishing I didn't let that 00z obs influence me to go from 24F down to 23F on the low. Same boat, if I could remake my forecast it would be 46/24/17/0 Original forecast I had a low 23........over corrected when I saw the drop to 24.. I had 24 in for a few minutes too, but took it down to 22 when the 0z ob came in. Now I'm wishing I had kept it at 24. Oh well. Edit: 45/22/17/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 WRF-EMS? Yep, good ol' WRF EMS. Also, I'm mad at the 00Z ob as well. Tricky, tricky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Ouch. Going down in rank hard this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Up to 43 already, wow. OVC900 on METAR, but it looks temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Ya, my only hope on the high is for those mountain wave clouds to stick around all day. Not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Ouch. Going down in rank hard this morning. Ditto. -189 right. Could really use those winds ramping up this afternoon. Edit: -271 now. Com'on winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Ditto. -189 right. Could really use those winds ramping up this afternoon. Me too. They have 30 kts just off the deck per RAP mesoanalysis. Just need to mix about 2/3 of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Me too. They have 30 kts just off the deck per RAP mesoanalysis. Just need to mix about 2/3 of th If anything, the winds are going to save me today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 If anything, the winds are going to save me today.. I went 19 kts as well. I'm worried though, would have like to have seen something in the low teens for sustained by now. Maybe the inversion is just too much though. Then again, they are already at 45F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 I'm hoping my climatology argument (SWerly winds are climatologically weak) holds today so I can salvage a decent day (with just a bad high). That being said, it wasn't 'til next hour yesterday where we started really mixing down the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Up the road in Laconia they're doing 17 G 26...not sure if that means anything for Concord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Up the road in Laconia they're doing 17 G 26...not sure if that means anything for Concord. This would suggest maybe it doesn't mean anything for KCON: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/windrose/climate/monthly/11/LCI_nov.png http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/windrose/climate/monthly/11/CON_nov.png http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/windrose/climate/monthly/11/MHT_nov.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 This would suggest maybe it doesn't mean anything for KCON: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/windrose/climate/monthly/11/LCI_nov.png http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/windrose/climate/monthly/11/CON_nov.png http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/windrose/climate/monthly/11/MHT_nov.png Crap, wish I had looked at those before I made my forecast. Congrats, good job on the wind. Can't believe it's already at 48F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Dam was really hoping for the higher winds, but I guess I'll settle for nailing the high at least. Maybe we can verify at 16 knots at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 And I'm freeee fallling (in rank) ~Sent from a device that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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