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WxChallenge 2013-14


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34/22/15/0

 

MOS is out to lunch with the low, I did a hard look back at KCON's history and low low's do not play nice with NW winds > 5 kts. The high tomorrow should be similar today, notice that MOS busted hard today and with same BL temps tomorrow, it shouldn't be much different. Winds hit 20 kts today, still experimenting with this one.

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I went 36/16/13/0" for Wednesday.

 

Looking at things, Concord is in a bit of a valley which may help winds die down tonight. The NAM showed winds staying up a bit but the HRRR, which at least here in Ohio performs decently with terrain affects on winds, shows things decoupling pretty nicely later tonight. Because of that went a bit cooler on the low. Then again I expected them to get down to 18 by 6z which is looking unlikely.

 

On the bright side I'm one off the national consensus for the high and two off for the low, so tomorrow can't set me back too much farther.

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I went 36/16/13/0" for Wednesday.

 

Looking at things, Concord is in a bit of a valley which may help winds die down tonight. The NAM showed winds staying up a bit but the HRRR, which at least here in Ohio performs decently with terrain affects on winds, shows things decoupling pretty nicely later tonight. Because of that went a bit cooler on the low. Then again I expected them to get down to 18 by 6z which is looking unlikely.

 

On the bright side I'm one off the national consensus for the high and two off for the low, so tomorrow can't set me back too much farther.

 

If you look closer, the airport is on top of a hill, and 10m anemometer can see out to 30 miles to the NW.

 

Edit: You can see Mt. Cardigan 37 miles away to the NW.

post-741-0-54791800-1384301875_thumb.png

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That wind for Day 1 needs to be changed to 20 kts.

 

That it most certainly does. You should email the WxChallenge manager!

 

 

Kinda worried that the 06z low tonight could be really high, especially if clouds move in. Like 26F+. Doesn't affect my score a whole lot since I'm at national consensus for the low, but would have been nice to nail it if it happens :P

 

It happened! I definitely am wishing I went high on the low yesterday. I saw the potential, but I was scared it would be less breezy than modeled. Bad move on my part!

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34/22/15/0

 

MOS is out to lunch with the low, I did a hard look back at KCON's history and low low's do not play nice with NW winds > 5 kts. The high tomorrow should be similar today, notice that MOS busted hard today and with same BL temps tomorrow, it shouldn't be much different. Winds hit 20 kts today, still experimenting with this one.

 

Since the valley is more or less oriented NW to SE, those NW winds tend to funnel down the valley. Higher during the day and at night, which helps to keep the nocturnal BL mixed. So especially early on the in the CAA regime guidance tends to bust on the cold side. When they do decouple though, it tends to happen late (the sunrise surprise is quite common there).

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Really hoping that they didn't get up to 34 in between the hourly obs and I am interested in seeing what the winds should be considering they gusted in the low 20s for a while.

 

Over the long haul of the challenge you can make up so many cheap points via wind forecasting. Guidance consistently underforecasts winds (MOS should really be a lower bound at best most days). A few Bufkit profiles should be enough to get a very good wind forecast in and make up just as many points as an average missed high or low.

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I had another horrid day, my standard deviation is something like a gaudy +9 to +10.

 

For tomorrow went 47/24/15/0. With the winds more W-SW tonight I'm worried they may stand a better chance at decoupling, but given the station is on a hill and some clouds/higher dews will move in went warm with the low. Tinkered with 25 or 26 but given they were at 27 at 23z are at 24 now didn't want to get too cute. We'll see. Some of the models show a modest warming trend after midnight. Am hoping that with WAA and essentially full sun the high can be a bit warmer than guidance. Need a decent day tomorrow.

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