Metsfan Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Missed the fact that the high temperature were going to be at 6z, but hoping to salvage the rest of the forecast 38/22/15/.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Kinda worried that the 06z low tonight could be really high, especially if clouds move in. Like 26F+. Doesn't affect my score a whole lot since I'm at national consensus for the low, but would have been nice to nail it if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Was shocked to see 43 as the high. Went to bed and it was 39 and I thought my 41 was cooked. Now for the skies to stay clear and for us to cool rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Day 2: 34/22/16kts/0.00 I just dont see the BL decoupling, and with the stronger winds aloft, I think it will keep it well mixed overnight and not drop below 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 34/22/15/0 MOS is out to lunch with the low, I did a hard look back at KCON's history and low low's do not play nice with NW winds > 5 kts. The high tomorrow should be similar today, notice that MOS busted hard today and with same BL temps tomorrow, it shouldn't be much different. Winds hit 20 kts today, still experimenting with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I went 36/16/13/0" for Wednesday. Looking at things, Concord is in a bit of a valley which may help winds die down tonight. The NAM showed winds staying up a bit but the HRRR, which at least here in Ohio performs decently with terrain affects on winds, shows things decoupling pretty nicely later tonight. Because of that went a bit cooler on the low. Then again I expected them to get down to 18 by 6z which is looking unlikely. On the bright side I'm one off the national consensus for the high and two off for the low, so tomorrow can't set me back too much farther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I bit on the cold low, 36/15/16/0 I also have it getting down to 20 by 06Z so I could be in huge trouble if the low hangs in the mid-20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Looks like we'll learn tonight if CON decouples and radiates better than surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I went 36/16/13/0" for Wednesday. Looking at things, Concord is in a bit of a valley which may help winds die down tonight. The NAM showed winds staying up a bit but the HRRR, which at least here in Ohio performs decently with terrain affects on winds, shows things decoupling pretty nicely later tonight. Because of that went a bit cooler on the low. Then again I expected them to get down to 18 by 6z which is looking unlikely. On the bright side I'm one off the national consensus for the high and two off for the low, so tomorrow can't set me back too much farther. If you look closer, the airport is on top of a hill, and 10m anemometer can see out to 30 miles to the NW. Edit: You can see Mt. Cardigan 37 miles away to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 34/20/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 If you look closer, the airport is on top of a hill, and 10m anemometer can see out to 30 miles to the NW. Edit: You can see Mt. Cardigan 37 miles away to the NW. kconwind.PNG Ahh. Luckily I have 6 days to use this information. That's probably why the winds got so strong today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 33/16/15/0 Completely forgot to adjust forecast before 0z. O well. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Made this for you guys, special AmWx treat . (My website, so no worry about viruses & stuff) http://www.data.wxmeddler.com/RAM/KCON 10m Anemometer.kmz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 If you look closer, the airport is on top of a hill, and 10m anemometer can see out to 30 miles to the NW. Edit: You can see Mt. Cardigan 37 miles away to the NW. kconwind.PNG Ohh, I was looking for some cross sections for topography and what not. Mind sharing where you found this? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Ohh, I was looking for some cross sections for topography and what not. Mind sharing where you found this? Thanks Checkout the path profilier. http://www.heywhatsthat.com/faq.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 That wind for Day 1 needs to be changed to 20 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 That wind for Day 1 needs to be changed to 20 kts. That it most certainly does. You should email the WxChallenge manager! Kinda worried that the 06z low tonight could be really high, especially if clouds move in. Like 26F+. Doesn't affect my score a whole lot since I'm at national consensus for the low, but would have been nice to nail it if it happens It happened! I definitely am wishing I went high on the low yesterday. I saw the potential, but I was scared it would be less breezy than modeled. Bad move on my part! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Boy I suck. Forecasting for a location 50 miles away and I'm screwing up. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 34/22/15/0 MOS is out to lunch with the low, I did a hard look back at KCON's history and low low's do not play nice with NW winds > 5 kts. The high tomorrow should be similar today, notice that MOS busted hard today and with same BL temps tomorrow, it shouldn't be much different. Winds hit 20 kts today, still experimenting with this one. Since the valley is more or less oriented NW to SE, those NW winds tend to funnel down the valley. Higher during the day and at night, which helps to keep the nocturnal BL mixed. So especially early on the in the CAA regime guidance tends to bust on the cold side. When they do decouple though, it tends to happen late (the sunrise surprise is quite common there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 My day 1 was 44/24/18/0.02 and day 2 was 35/20/17/0. Low so far for day 2 is 21 but I'm a bit worried about a free fall before clouds move in later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Really hoping that they didn't get up to 34 in between the hourly obs and I am interested in seeing what the winds should be considering they gusted in the low 20s for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Really hoping that they didn't get up to 34 in between the hourly obs and I am interested in seeing what the winds should be considering they gusted in the low 20s for a while. Over the long haul of the challenge you can make up so many cheap points via wind forecasting. Guidance consistently underforecasts winds (MOS should really be a lower bound at best most days). A few Bufkit profiles should be enough to get a very good wind forecast in and make up just as many points as an average missed high or low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 34/20/17/0 Can't complain too much with a 1.5 day. But one of the other grad students here at Penn State had a perfect forecast today. I haven't had one of those yet! I'm jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Can't complain too much with a 1.5 day. But one of the other grad students here at Penn State had a perfect forecast today. I haven't had one of those yet! I'm jealous. I had one back in Freshman year but I think like 30 other people also got it on that day.. 1.5 pt day for me too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Awesome, 1 pt day here. Looks like the americanwx group did pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 For the low tonight I am a little weary of going too cold with the low. Winds are currently west and SW and are going to increase along with dew point. I don't think the ATM will decouple. I went with 46/24/14/0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 24 at CON already. Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Went with 44/21/18/0 for tomorrow. Really bullish on the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 44/23/14/0 Thinking the temperature will bump back up when the clouds move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 I had another horrid day, my standard deviation is something like a gaudy +9 to +10. For tomorrow went 47/24/15/0. With the winds more W-SW tonight I'm worried they may stand a better chance at decoupling, but given the station is on a hill and some clouds/higher dews will move in went warm with the low. Tinkered with 25 or 26 but given they were at 27 at 23z are at 24 now didn't want to get too cute. We'll see. Some of the models show a modest warming trend after midnight. Am hoping that with WAA and essentially full sun the high can be a bit warmer than guidance. Need a decent day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.