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WxChallenge 2013-14


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A perfect day for me Thursday gets me back above the national consensus :lol:

 

So, the high will be 70, the low will be 29 and the wind will be 5 knots.

 

Even a low of 31F today would have put me above national consensus. Alas, 33F is all we could manage. I guess I could hold out hope for a lower low before 06z, but that's probably a stretch.

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Even a low of 31F today would have put me above national consensus. Alas, 33F is all we could manage. I guess I could hold out hope for a lower low before 06z, but that's probably a stretch.

Can't believe it only dropped 2 degrees after 6z..tough customers in Norman evidently. If the high doesn't get above 65 today and I'm within a knot of the wind a standard deviation of zero or slightly negative would still be within striking distance tomorrow. That's all I can hope for before I try to have a more consistent performance in Concord.

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Looks like the temperature has leveled off...barring a last second rally 64 will be the high. If that holds I'll have a standard deviation of less than +1. Can't believe that I still have a chance to break even despite having so many things go wrong in Norman. Will certainly be looking to put out a solid forecast tomorrow. My met professor has 4 less error points than I do, so really my goal is to do much better than him tomorrow :lol:

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67/38/20/0

 

Somehow I've made my way into the top 200, -1.40. I was in 695th after day 4. This week is going the complete opposite of week 1.

Today we had the same forecast and it worked out well enough. Tomorrow I'm close but not quite the same...67/37/19/0

 

As for me tomorrow, I don't need a perfect day to pass the National Consensus (which is 66/40/19/0) but things have to bust a certain way. The wind/precip can do whatever they want, but the high needs to be 67+ AND the low needs to be 37 or lower for me to pass the national consensus...and if that can happen my final standard deviation will be near -0.50...we'll see. I hear Concord is nice this time of year :lol:

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Wow I'm (kinda) lucky.

 

The high today at Norman was 65.5F. However, that's translated and rounded from the measurement of 18.6C, which is 65.48F. Therefore, 18.6C actually rounds DOWN to 65F. I was at 64F today, and 66F would have hurt me quite a bit more than 65F does.

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