Mallow Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 A perfect day for me Thursday gets me back above the national consensus So, the high will be 70, the low will be 29 and the wind will be 5 knots. Even a low of 31F today would have put me above national consensus. Alas, 33F is all we could manage. I guess I could hold out hope for a lower low before 06z, but that's probably a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Even a low of 31F today would have put me above national consensus. Alas, 33F is all we could manage. I guess I could hold out hope for a lower low before 06z, but that's probably a stretch. Can't believe it only dropped 2 degrees after 6z..tough customers in Norman evidently. If the high doesn't get above 65 today and I'm within a knot of the wind a standard deviation of zero or slightly negative would still be within striking distance tomorrow. That's all I can hope for before I try to have a more consistent performance in Concord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Looks like I'm forced to take this as my drop city ugh. Well time to put up a better score at KCON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Looks like the temperature has leveled off...barring a last second rally 64 will be the high. If that holds I'll have a standard deviation of less than +1. Can't believe that I still have a chance to break even despite having so many things go wrong in Norman. Will certainly be looking to put out a solid forecast tomorrow. My met professor has 4 less error points than I do, so really my goal is to do much better than him tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 66/37/21/0 1 pt day today! (Missed the high) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 64/42/19/0 Best case scenario is I tie national consensus tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 67/38/20/0 Somehow I've made my way into the top 200, -1.40. I was in 695th after day 4. This week is going the complete opposite of week 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 67/38/20/0 Somehow I've made my way into the top 200, -1.40. I was in 695th after day 4. This week is going the complete opposite of week 1. Today we had the same forecast and it worked out well enough. Tomorrow I'm close but not quite the same...67/37/19/0 As for me tomorrow, I don't need a perfect day to pass the National Consensus (which is 66/40/19/0) but things have to bust a certain way. The wind/precip can do whatever they want, but the high needs to be 67+ AND the low needs to be 37 or lower for me to pass the national consensus...and if that can happen my final standard deviation will be near -0.50...we'll see. I hear Concord is nice this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I was counting on that upper-30s low occurring early, so the recent temperature and dew point spike isn't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Remember, remember the third of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 64/42/19/0 Best case scenario is I tie national consensus tomorrow. Nicely done with the low..ended up being 43F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Diasastah for my low. Hopefully I can stay in top 100, but lost 1st place for school. ~Sent from a device that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Wow I'm (kinda) lucky. The high today at Norman was 65.5F. However, that's translated and rounded from the measurement of 18.6C, which is 65.48F. Therefore, 18.6C actually rounds DOWN to 65F. I was at 64F today, and 66F would have hurt me quite a bit more than 65F does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Crap, close to 66, but oh well. Looks like I finish NRMN at 29th overall, not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Welcome to New England boys. Happy forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 And by happy forecasting I mean tricky forecasting with the frontal passage tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I saw on the WxChallenge FB page that they amended the day 8 high for NRMN to 66. That puts me at 26th overall, and first in cat 0! Unfortunately, I don't think they give trophies for alumni Oh well, time for KCON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 42/20/15/0 6z High, 6z Low, 15kts w/ front and a T of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 39/22/16/0.00" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 43/21/17/0.02 Low was the trickiest for me. Not sure if it's going to be in the teens (clear and calm) or the mid 20s (cloudy and breezy). So I went somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Wow, if 42-43 verifies you guys will be in good shape considering the consensus of 38.8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 5 minute forecast...38/18/14/0.05" Worried a bit about temps being warmer at 6z tonight than that. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I went cold with the high, 37/20/17/0.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 41/20/16/.01" Agree with everything wxmeddler said except I'm hoping for .01 on the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Break in the clouds and a drop to 39F here at 03z. It will be interesting to see if it clouds over again before 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 It went clear? Really? Should have stuck with original high of 37. On to the next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Hopefully it can keep dropping becuase I had 35/19/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Whoops. Holding on until the FROPA, there is still low 40's advecting into the area. 43 and above might be out of it now but 42 and below I think can still get it... maybe. Edit: Back up to 42. METAR KCON 120351Z AUTO 20004KT 10SM OVC100 06/M03 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP118 T00561028 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 41/20/14/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 So far so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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