OHweather Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 87/73/9/0.11" We'll see. I seem to be a bit low on wind per the posts here. Was unsure on precip...the best threat looks east of KHOU but wasn't confident going dry. We'll see if a thunderstorm politely grazes the airport tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Well... it's gonna rain. A lot. http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=HGX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&lat=29.64527702&lon=-95.27889252&label=Hobby%2C+TX&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 At least I got the low right! (Unless the rain kills that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 76 for the low last night... insolation a bit stronger than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 76 for the low last night... insolation a bit stronger than I thought. Let's not call it just yet. This approaching storm could very well knock that down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Well... it's gonna rain. A lot. A VP2 station ~10 miles away from HOU just caught the outflow boundary with a gust of 27 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Well... it's gonna rain. A lot. http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=HGX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&lat=29.64527702&lon=-95.27889252&label=Hobby%2C+TX&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 At least I got the low right! (Unless the rain kills that) Awesome........just awesome. Next city....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Awesome........just awesome. Next city....... Well the bulk of it fell apart... but there's showers in there... If they get a lot of rain, they could cool down by 4°F+ (see KAXH). If it's just a bit, they might even warm a little (see KSGR). So I'm really hoping for the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Wow... I'm really worried about that cell that is heading NNW, though. Just blew up when it hit the outflow boundary, and hasn't changed direction. Could miss KHOU JUST to the east, but it's gonna be close. http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=HOU&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=TR0&frame=0&scale=0.628&noclutter=0&lat=29.64527702&lon=-95.27889252&label=Hobby%2C+TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Light rain last hour, but no measurable precip. Sustained winds were 11kts, so it's a pretty good bet the winds end up higher than most forecasts today. I had 87/74/13/0.00. Initially had a small amount of rain in there, but decided to go with my gut. It turns out the 87/74/0.00 options were the most commonly selected, so it shouldn't negatively affect my score much. Radar doesn't look too promising. The dew-point is also down to 72°F, so there's a slight possibility that a heavier shower may bring the low down lower. I wouldn't count on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Wow... I'm really worried about that cell that is heading NNW, though. Just blew up when it hit the outflow boundary, and hasn't changed direction. Could miss KHOU JUST to the east, but it's gonna be close. http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=HOU&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=TR0&frame=0&scale=0.628&noclutter=0&lat=29.64527702&lon=-95.27889252&label=Hobby%2C+TX Really, really close. As in, if the rain gauge is in the NE part of the airport, they might get precip. Otherwise we (those of us who went 0") might dodge another bullet. EDIT: Nope, it's in the SW part. Success! http://goo.gl/maps/IqpdD EDIT 2: Probably won't matter after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Ugh, this outflow-cooled air is going to be the death of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Keep up the play by play Mallow. It has been entertaining as I attempt my Boundary Layer HW. Boy that dew point is dropping like a rock huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Ugh, this outflow-cooled air is going to be the death of me. Not as much as 50% of the forecasters who put 87+ Boy that dew point is dropping like a rock huh? Yep, great for the 0.00" people, raising the lcl's even by a little bit would seriously hurt the CAPE. It's also easy to see where that dry air is coming from Thank you thunderstorm downdraft! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Keep up the play by play Mallow. It has been entertaining as I attempt my Boundary Layer HW. Boy that dew point is dropping like a rock huh? Ya, never expected to see it get down to the 60s. Hooray for mixing down dry (well, drier) air from aloft! Not as much as 50% of the forecasters who put 87+ Yep, great for the 0.00" people, raising the lcl's even by a little bit would seriously hurt the CAPE. WRT precip, I'm glad dewpoints have dropped so much. WRT the high temperature, it worries me. Drier air will be easier to heat if they can get some sunshine in there. Hoping for the clouds to stick around! Best of all worlds for me I'm still worried about the low. Even though it "stuck" at 77F this hour, the 77F at 9:07AM could actually have been anywhere between 76F and 78F due to rounding. And in that ~45 minutes between that obs and the hourly one, it could have easily gone 76F->75F->76F->77F. So... I'm not out of the woods yet on the low. On top of that, the 06z temperatures could be mightly close as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Here's the Wunderground HOU radar with the KHOU ASOS labeled: http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=HOU&brand=wui&num=12&delay=15&type=TR0&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&lat=29.6375&lon=-95.2824&label=KHOU+ASOS%2C+TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Come on rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Oh no! Looks like something is trying to pop right over the airport!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Oh no! Looks like something is trying to pop right over the airport!!! Most of it is to the north. I'd be surprised if the light stuff over the ASOS gave them anything more than a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 I got burned today- had to put my forecast out early yesterday morning. 86/75/11kt/0.5" Got owned on precip ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Dew Point back up to 72. There may be hope yet for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 I'm still worried about the low. Even though it "stuck" at 77F this hour, the 77F at 9:07AM could actually have been anywhere between 76F and 78F due to rounding. And in that ~45 minutes between that obs and the hourly one, it could have easily gone 76F->75F->76F->77F. So... I'm not out of the woods yet on the low. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Damn. Not the first time I've gotten a forecast right for the wrong reason, and it won't be the last! 86/75/12/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 The low goes in the books at 75°. High only 83° so far... Why aren't the Hypothetical Results working? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 precip for tomorrow will be just as hard ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 In as RHeves under Fresh/soph category for PLY...but basically have no idea what I'm doing. Went 87/74/9/.09 Looks like I'll be 1 off on low, 1-2 off on high, wind pretty far off, and precip still a bit up in the air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Spike to 86°F this hour! Not bad for those of us who had higher max temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Spike to 86°F this hour! Not bad for those of us who had higher max temps... Hope it sticks at 86F But the low killed me between obs, so the high probably will, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Hope it sticks at 86F But the low killed me between obs, so the high probably will, too. It will be interesting to see how the high and wind end up...could be a lot of variation between the hourlies. BTW, I spoke with the WxChallenge Manager and the Hypothetical Results tool is back up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Very similar forecast tomorrow huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Very similar forecast tomorrow huh? The pattern doesn't change much until probably Saturday, based on the models, as a cold front eventually approaches. It should be fun to see how much and when precip falls for the balance of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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