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WxChallenge 2013-14


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For a little while I thought they might escape with only 0.10" but now that band has shifted back to the north a bit and they should pick up more rain.

 

And we still (might) have the second (maybe heavier) band coming in this evening.

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

FARTHER SW...OTHER STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND

INTENSITY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT FROM ERN KS SSW THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OK

INTO WRN AND NRN TX...ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. WHILE

FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGE OVER THIS REGION

THROUGH LATE TODAY...MODEST SFC HEATING OF SEASONABLY MOIST

AIR...CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW...AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH

PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH ALL SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR NUMEROUS

CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS.

GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD...AND LIKELY INCREASE IN THE FLOW

THROUGH THIS EVE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A COMPLEX MIX OF STORM

MODES CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL...SCTD DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A

COUPLE TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REQUIRE THE PRESENCE OF

MESOSCALE FORCING MECHANISMS THAT ARE NOT APPARENT ATTM...BUT SOME

RISK WILL EXIST NONETHELESS. LATER TNGT AND...ESPECIALLY...EARLY

THU...STORMS SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY

STRENGTH AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE EWD ACCELERATION

OF AZ/NM UPR VORT.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t5&run_time=30+Oct+2013+-+14Z

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Pretty much worst case scenario for me today. Go one county west and I had the right idea for the high. Go one county east and I had the right idea for precip. Instead, I get screwed over on both :(

 

If the current numbers verify, I drop 833 places today.

 

I'm not so much mad that I had a "bad" forecast today, it's that the first 2/3 of the day panned out almost exactly how I thought it would, except that there was a one-county wide area where they got fringed with precip but never got the sunshine. That just happened to be over Norman. So all the people who did "well" with a low high today got lucky as crap, because I can guarantee most of them weren't expecting upper 70s a county to the west of Norman.

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If the current numbers verify, I drop 833 places today.

 

I'm not so much mad that I had a "bad" forecast today, it's that the first 2/3 of the day panned out almost exactly how I thought it would, except that there was a one-county wide area where they got fringed with precip but never got the sunshine. That just happened to be over Norman. So all the people who did "well" with a low high today got lucky as crap, because I can guarantee most of them weren't expecting upper 70s a county to the west of Norman.

 

The tendency for things to stop right along the I-44 corridor (rain/snow line, ice line, overcast line, etc.) is uncanny even if not entirely scientific. :P

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 So all the people who did "well" with a low high today got lucky as crap, because I can guarantee most of them weren't expecting upper 70s a county to the west of Norman.

 

Agree, Norman was just a screw zone today. The site was playing matrix with the showers and the low high was just damn lucky.

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If the current numbers verify, I drop 833 places today.

 

I'm not so much mad that I had a "bad" forecast today, it's that the first 2/3 of the day panned out almost exactly how I thought it would, except that there was a one-county wide area where they got fringed with precip but never got the sunshine. That just happened to be over Norman. So all the people who did "well" with a low high today got lucky as crap, because I can guarantee most of them weren't expecting upper 70s a county to the west of Norman.

57th overall :P

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.46 is exactly double of what the NRMN is reporting (.23) on the mesonet website. Someone may have accidentally dumped a x2 multiplier or the algorithm added it twice by mistake.

Yeah, I'm not worried about that. It's clearly 0.23".

Went 74/67/24/0.34 for today...dropped 35 spaces to 80th place.

 

Tomorrow I went 66/46/24/0.10" hoping to hit the low with light winds and good radiating conditions at NRMN.

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68/49/25/0.10"

Am not thrilled with today...for tomorrow think they could drop off quickly in the evening. Am going for strong winds with 30+ knots at 925mb in a CAA regime in the afternoon...threw in a token tenth of an inch of rain with most models showing a line of showers along the cold front.

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68/49/25/0.10"

Am not thrilled with today...for tomorrow think they could drop off quickly in the evening. Am going for strong winds with 30+ knots at 925mb in a CAA regime in the afternoon...threw in a token tenth of an inch of rain with most models showing a line of showers along the cold front.

Seein that tonight. Down to 65 as of 120z!

 

There goes my D2 low...

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