wxmeddler Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Norman KTLX radar loop (will come in handy tomorrow): http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=TLX&brand=wui&num=12&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.467&noclutter=0&lat=35.236110&lon=-97.464880&label=NRMN&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=481¢ery=195&transx=81&transy=-45 OKC TDWR: http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=OKC&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=TR0&frame=0&scale=0.528&noclutter=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&lat=35.236110&lon=-97.464880&label=NRMN&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=481¢ery=195&transx=81&transy=-45 OKC TDWR (Close-up): http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=OKC&brand=wui&num=12&delay=15&type=TR0&frame=0&scale=0.159&noclutter=0&lat=35.236110&lon=-97.464880&label=NRMN&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=444¢ery=113&transx=44&transy=-127&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 0.10" so far but missed that 2" rain train this morning by only 20 miles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 For a little while I thought they might escape with only 0.10" but now that band has shifted back to the north a bit and they should pick up more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 For a little while I thought they might escape with only 0.10" but now that band has shifted back to the north a bit and they should pick up more rain. And we still (might) have the second (maybe heavier) band coming in this evening. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html FARTHER SW...OTHER STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN NUMBER ANDINTENSITY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT FROM ERN KS SSW THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OK INTO WRN AND NRN TX...ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGE OVER THIS REGION THROUGH LATE TODAY...MODEST SFC HEATING OF SEASONABLY MOIST AIR...CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW...AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH ALL SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR NUMEROUS CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD...AND LIKELY INCREASE IN THE FLOW THROUGH THIS EVE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A COMPLEX MIX OF STORM MODES CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL...SCTD DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REQUIRE THE PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE FORCING MECHANISMS THAT ARE NOT APPARENT ATTM...BUT SOME RISK WILL EXIST NONETHELESS. LATER TNGT AND...ESPECIALLY...EARLY THU...STORMS SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY STRENGTH AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE EWD ACCELERATION OF AZ/NM UPR VORT. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t5&run_time=30+Oct+2013+-+14Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Went with 73/67/24/.49" for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 The 14z HRRR shows a nice band moving in between 23z and 03z this evening. Dumps about .5" additional which would mean around .75" for the day. Hoping it is a tad slower since I gambled low at .32"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 For now I'm 65th. Nice while it lasts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Temps should pop up to the mid-upper 70's once this slight clearing of clouds moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Temps should pop up to the mid-upper 70's once this slight clearing of clouds moves in. Capture.JPG I guess not lol. Such a bad day. Hope all precip hits after 6z tonight as that is what my day 3 forecast hopes for lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Pretty much worst case scenario for me today. Go one county west and I had the right idea for the high. Go one county east and I had the right idea for precip. Instead, I get screwed over on both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 The winds have been underperforming mightily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Yeah my forecast for today is getting boned pretty nicely. Still some time to work on winds/precip/low but it isn't looking pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Pretty much worst case scenario for me today. Go one county west and I had the right idea for the high. Go one county east and I had the right idea for precip. Instead, I get screwed over on both If the current numbers verify, I drop 833 places today. I'm not so much mad that I had a "bad" forecast today, it's that the first 2/3 of the day panned out almost exactly how I thought it would, except that there was a one-county wide area where they got fringed with precip but never got the sunshine. That just happened to be over Norman. So all the people who did "well" with a low high today got lucky as crap, because I can guarantee most of them weren't expecting upper 70s a county to the west of Norman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 If the current numbers verify, I drop 833 places today. I'm not so much mad that I had a "bad" forecast today, it's that the first 2/3 of the day panned out almost exactly how I thought it would, except that there was a one-county wide area where they got fringed with precip but never got the sunshine. That just happened to be over Norman. So all the people who did "well" with a low high today got lucky as crap, because I can guarantee most of them weren't expecting upper 70s a county to the west of Norman. The tendency for things to stop right along the I-44 corridor (rain/snow line, ice line, overcast line, etc.) is uncanny even if not entirely scientific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Well, KOUN is at 66 with 16 knot winds as of 2255z. The mesonet site is still at 68 with around 14 knot winds right now...am eagerly looking to make up a few points wherever possible for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 So all the people who did "well" with a low high today got lucky as crap, because I can guarantee most of them weren't expecting upper 70s a county to the west of Norman. Agree, Norman was just a screw zone today. The site was playing matrix with the showers and the low high was just damn lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 If the current numbers verify, I drop 833 places today. I'm not so much mad that I had a "bad" forecast today, it's that the first 2/3 of the day panned out almost exactly how I thought it would, except that there was a one-county wide area where they got fringed with precip but never got the sunshine. That just happened to be over Norman. So all the people who did "well" with a low high today got lucky as crap, because I can guarantee most of them weren't expecting upper 70s a county to the west of Norman. 57th overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 67/50/22/0.07 (could also be zero) Still kinda frustrated about today.. those who went low because they thought it would be after 6z scored big, even though it was the wrong forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Um what's up with climo showing 0.46 for precip, that doesn't look legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Um what's up with climo showing 0.46 for precip, that doesn't look legit .46 is exactly double of what the NRMN is reporting (.23) on the mesonet website. Someone may have accidentally dumped a x2 multiplier or the algorithm added it twice by mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Ok, for Day 3, I went: 67/49/24/0.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 .46 is exactly double of what the NRMN is reporting (.23) on the mesonet website. Someone may have accidentally dumped a x2 multiplier or the algorithm added it twice by mistake. Yeah, I'm not worried about that. It's clearly 0.23". Went 74/67/24/0.34 for today...dropped 35 spaces to 80th place. Tomorrow I went 66/46/24/0.10" hoping to hit the low with light winds and good radiating conditions at NRMN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Um what's up with climo showing 0.46 for precip, that doesn't look legit How do you access this format for obs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 How do you access this format for obs? Here's the link http://wxchallenge.com/history/sites/13-14/NRMN/nrmn_data.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Here's the link http://wxchallenge.com/history/sites/13-14/NRMN/nrmn_data.txt Appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Went 68/48/24/0.05 tomorrow. Not that it matters... I dropped from -11 standard deviations yesterday to +1 today. >_< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 68/49/25/0.10" Am not thrilled with today...for tomorrow think they could drop off quickly in the evening. Am going for strong winds with 30+ knots at 925mb in a CAA regime in the afternoon...threw in a token tenth of an inch of rain with most models showing a line of showers along the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 68/49/25/0.10" Am not thrilled with today...for tomorrow think they could drop off quickly in the evening. Am going for strong winds with 30+ knots at 925mb in a CAA regime in the afternoon...threw in a token tenth of an inch of rain with most models showing a line of showers along the cold front. Seein that tonight. Down to 65 as of 120z! There goes my D2 low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Seein that tonight. Down to 65 as of 120z! There goes my D2 low... That's 'cause they're advecting rain-cooled air in from the south... And ya, this makes me even WORSE today. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 That's 'cause they're advecting rain-cooled air in from the south... And ya, this makes me even WORSE today. Ugh. Yes sir. Yeah, hoping it stops soon. Kind of wish it was cooled due to rain at NRMN, but whatever...only need 0.11" haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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