wxmeddler Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Yeah so, MOS is KOUN and BUFKIT is OUN. Couldn't make it easy.. Though the near real time data will be cool. Especially if there is severe on Wed. (Edited based on LaForce's post) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 BUFKIT is just OUN, no K at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 BUFKIT is just OUN, no K at the beginning. Interesting.. That works! Thanks for the heads up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 BUFKIT is just OUN, no K at the beginning. Yeah that was weird. I had to look it up, since I was perplexed when BUFGET said profiles couldn't be found for KOUN. Anyway... 77/64/23/0.07" The RAP is throwing out something like 1.30" of rain with thunderstorms overnight, so let's see if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 78/63/21/0.03" Decided to go with some rather aggressive calls here...that's what I get for forecasting on very little sleep at the end of a packed day For the high figured that with the models showing a good amount of mid-level drying that a fair amount of sun will be seen tomorrow...perhaps more than OUN is thinking. That in combination with 850mb temps warming to near +16C may allow temperatures a few degrees warmer than MOS to verify. NAM MOS was something like 81, didn't want to go that warm. For the low tonight figured temps would hold steady in the mid 60's, but did give a couple of degrees in case either rain or a bit of radiational cooling pulls things down a tad. Figured the majority of the rain will stay north of Norman, but with just about every piece of guidance I looked at spitting out at least something did throw a light amount of precip in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 75/63/16/0 NAM/HRRRRR/RAP are throwing out showers tonight but most of those models have convection already initating down near Lubbock, which is not happening. So I went with zero based on the feeling (a la GFS) that the forcing will be too weak to start anything over night and if it does it will be scattered and light. With high clouds most of the day and WAA the lapse rates in the lowest km or so arn't spectacular and as such I went only 16 kts (which is one of the weird kts #'s that I get to verify even if the wind speed is 18.98 mph) and since the station measures sustained speed to the .1 then I have a better chance of making it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 There is a webcam pointed right at the ASOS station too, so we will know if any OU students try to piss in the bucket Also, FCST: 74/64/23/0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Very tough forecast. Went with 74/65/22/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 There is a webcam pointed right at the ASOS station too, so we will know if any OU students try to piss in the bucket Also, FCST: 74/64/23/0.01 Security seems low... *calls okpowdah to go over there and put saran wrap on top of the gauge* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 74/63/24....wish I went warmer with the low since it doesn't look like it will budge much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Had an exam today, not much time to forecast: 76/62/27/0.08 For the other contest: 73-79 / 60-65 / 0.00-0.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Had an exam today, not much time to forecast: 76/62/27/0.08 For the other contest: 73-79 / 60-65 / 0.00-0.15 I forgot to enter my forecast into the other contest. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 I forgot to enter my forecast into the other contest. Oh well. I guess that means you just get 0 points which shouldn't hurt too bad since the forecast is so uncertain tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 What is this other contest you speak of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 What is this other contest you speak of? http://nationalforecaster.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Norman radar loop (will come in handy tomorrow): http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=TLX&brand=wui&num=12&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.467&noclutter=0&lat=35.236110&lon=-97.464880&label=NRMN&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=481¢ery=195&transx=81&transy=-45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Was that wind gust this morning an OFB or something? It seems irregular to the other obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Was that wind gust this morning an OFB or something? It seems irregular to the other obs. I think its legitimate. KOUN reported a light shower (615-635z) which is around the time when the highest wind occurred at NRMN. I believe that is what caused the brief spike in winds. KOUN 290635Z AUTO 15021G28KT 10SM -RA OVC011 18/18 A3000 AO2 matches NRMN obs too. NRMN 20131029 0635 66.0 16.7 0.0020131029 0630 66.0 18.7 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 I think its legitimate. KOUN reported a light shower (615-635z) which is around the time when the highest wind occurred at NRMN. I believe that is what caused the brief spike in winds. KOUN 290635Z AUTO 15021G28KT 10SM -RA OVC011 18/18 A3000 AO2 matches NRMN obs too. I find it frustrating that this obs is the only flaw in my bullishly low (but correct!) wind forecast today. If the OFB hadn't of happened I would be 17th in nation with -10std. dev... DARN YOU OFB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 75/63/16/0 NAM/HRRRRR/RAP are throwing out showers tonight but most of those models have convection already initating down near Lubbock, which is not happening. So I went with zero based on the feeling (a la GFS) that the forcing will be too weak to start anything over night and if it does it will be scattered and light. With high clouds most of the day and WAA the lapse rates in the lowest km or so arn't spectacular and as such I went only 16 kts (which is one of the weird kts #'s that I get to verify even if the wind speed is 18.98 mph) and since the station measures sustained speed to the .1 then I have a better chance of making it. 17 is the one that has two mph values, not 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Toooough forecast. Went with 78/66/25/0.65, but any of them could be way off tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Was Just goona say, toughest forecast so far, wow. I went 75/66/22/0.33 Probably a wee low on precip, but who knows. I dont expect any showers through 12Z tomorrow. Tomorrow night on the other hand could get som heavy downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Toughest forecast yet! 77/67/21/0.42 ^^ Why not right? 77 may not verify but it was 76 today with clouds so 77 is reasonable with a bit more WAA. 67 is bottom due to high DP's. 21 kts is what I think it will get to but throw in convection and it wouldn't surprise me to see 25-30. I went with the GFS version of the timing of the precip because it is better handling the situation with former TS Raymond and the tropical connection there. If it's just a little bit off on the timing (ie. precip core farther west) though I could see 1-2" as a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 78/66/27/0.45" Figuring with slightly warmer ML temps and a bit of sun tomorrow they may verify a couple of degrees warmer than today. I think they'll stay warmer tonight than last night by a little bit, and also think they may not drop a ton before 6z Thursday...BUT with chances for convection throughout just went with persistence on the low. For the wind shot high, am hopeful for a nice outflow boundary. The national consensus is 21 knots for the wind and looking at the distribution if we can hit 25 knots it will help me, so a tiny bit of wiggle room there. As for precip, I shot lower than some of the hi-res models and higher than the GFS/Euro. It will probably rain, but it's anyone's guess how much occurs. There seemed to be some trend on the models of the best rain missing just to the south or east so I feel good being a tad below the national consensus on the rainfall, but really anything could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Went with 76/68/20/0. I just don't see much in the way of forcing just like today. Plus I think the upper low swings out slower than expected leaving the precipitation to fall during the day 3 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Went with 76/68/20/0. I just don't see much in the way of forcing just like today. Plus I think the upper low swings out slower than expected leaving the precipitation to fall during the day 3 period. If they get no precip tomorrow, you have the low and wind right, but you're way low on the high I think. If they get no precip tomorrow, they'll have more sunshine than today and start out warmer... 80F+ isn't out of the question in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 If they get no precip tomorrow, you have the low and wind right, but you're way low on the high I think. If they get no precip tomorrow, they'll have more sunshine than today and start out warmer... 80F+ isn't out of the question in that case. Still should be plenty of high and mid level cloudiness. I think 79 is the highest it would get tomorrow. Heck KOUN wound up colder than NRMN? I definitely know KOKC wound up 1F warmer than NRMN and GFS has KOKC getting to 79F, so if you'd assume same 1F bias on the model because it forecasted 75F for KOKC today than it would get to 80F tomorrow and NRMN would be 79F. I don't mind the 3F error that's what I got today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 73/66/23/.24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 This is where it gets fun Now let the super spread begin in the forecasts! 74/67/23/0.32 I changed precip at least 4 times today LOL. Decided to go with late timing of the convective bands (mainly day 3 period) but account for some of it starting earlier and some day 2 period showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Wednesday is the biggest spread of the contest so far this year. Judging by the temperature trends, the low might not drop below 69-70 until it rains (or maybe before 06 Z Thurs). 74/67/18/0.10 Maybe I'm too low on the precip but the GFS had the activity initiating near or east of Norman. I'm glad to gamble on the low end this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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