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WxChallenge 2013-14


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63/35/17/0 - Tricky forecast with the inversion tonight and the winds increasing tomorrow afternoon. Went balsy on the winds because I didn't feel like taking a huge risk on the low as the bust potential is higher.

 

edit: after thinking clearly w/o time stress... I'm gonna bust high on the low.

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My guess is the fact that the two previous days were like 62-63 when the mean temp forecasted was like 56-57 played a role.

I know it did for me.

I figured that's what did it. Unfortunately, today the winds were SW to SE compared to the NW winds the previous two days. Now tomorrow goes back to NW flow, and some compressional warming off the mountains may help out the temps.

 

Day 8 Fcst: 65/33/18kts/0.00"

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So what. not 34F day 6? OU better be consistent because if you are going to take the climo low for day 3 you better be doing the same for every day after that. 

 

So it turns out I was wrong about day 3 (and so is WxChallenge). The "11:59 PM" low occurred at 11:59 local STANDARD time, not MDT. Which means it occurred at 0659z, not 0559z. Same with last night's 34F (0652z, not 0552z). So I sent them an email asking them to correct day 3 back up to 29F. That hurts me a lot, though. :(

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So it turns out I was wrong about day 3 (and so is WxChallenge). The "11:59 PM" low occurred at 11:59 local STANDARD time, not MDT. Which means it occurred at 0659z, not 0559z. Same with last night's 34F (0652z, not 0552z). So I sent them an email asking them to correct day 3 back up to 29F. That hurts me a lot, though. :(

Huh? I thought local time is MDT over there?

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66/32/20 in the prelim climo. Hopefully it stays that way. 16th overall and 3rd in Category 0. 

 

A perfect forecast, congratulations! This is my second year doing the WxChallenge and I still haven't had a perfect forecast (even after ending last year in 7th place overall).

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A perfect forecast, congratulations! This is my second year doing the WxChallenge and I still haven't had a perfect forecast (even after ending last year in 7th place overall).

I only had 9.5 total error this week, too bad I'm an alum lol

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The current (final) climate report has it correct at 32F, so no worries.

Oh I was actually hoping that it was 34F lol. I wish I had just used the 18z GFS for lows...that thing was a beast. Too bad I had to make my forecasts at like 21z most of the time because of work. Ended up 50th overall, felt like I should've done better though, had a crappy week 2. Best I've done since I came in 44th at Riverton two years ago. :lol:

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Glancing at things, looks like the Norman mesonet site runs 2-3 degrees warmer than the OUN and OKC ASOS stations, at least today and yesterday. Somewhat frustrating that they couldn't just use OKC, I guess the University of Oklahoma really wanted to get the most of their home field advantage for this city?

 

Edit: After going back and look farther, the mesonet appears to run pretty close to the KOKC climo numbers. Not the same though but not terribly off.

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