weatherMA Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Temp was fine with me I was trying to figure out where everyone was seeing such high temps for today. My guess is the fact that the two previous days were like 62-63 when the mean temp forecasted was like 56-57 played a role.I know it did for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 63/35/17/0 - Tricky forecast with the inversion tonight and the winds increasing tomorrow afternoon. Went balsy on the winds because I didn't feel like taking a huge risk on the low as the bust potential is higher. edit: after thinking clearly w/o time stress... I'm gonna bust high on the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 My guess is the fact that the two previous days were like 62-63 when the mean temp forecasted was like 56-57 played a role. I know it did for me. I figured that's what did it. Unfortunately, today the winds were SW to SE compared to the NW winds the previous two days. Now tomorrow goes back to NW flow, and some compressional warming off the mountains may help out the temps. Day 8 Fcst: 65/33/18kts/0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 64/31/12/0 Probably a little low on the wind and definitely taking a risk with a 31 low, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 63/31/17/0.00 These last few days have pretty much been a crapshoot, so that was my method for tomorrow's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 68/34/20/0 Today was a disaster so I'm going all in tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 So what. not 34F day 6? OU better be consistent because if you are going to take the climo low for day 3 you better be doing the same for every day after that. So it turns out I was wrong about day 3 (and so is WxChallenge). The "11:59 PM" low occurred at 11:59 local STANDARD time, not MDT. Which means it occurred at 0659z, not 0559z. Same with last night's 34F (0652z, not 0552z). So I sent them an email asking them to correct day 3 back up to 29F. That hurts me a lot, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Went with 66/30/19/0 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 So it turns out I was wrong about day 3 (and so is WxChallenge). The "11:59 PM" low occurred at 11:59 local STANDARD time, not MDT. Which means it occurred at 0659z, not 0559z. Same with last night's 34F (0652z, not 0552z). So I sent them an email asking them to correct day 3 back up to 29F. That hurts me a lot, though. Huh? I thought local time is MDT over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 And today was a good day for me. I did go 52/29/12/0, just gotta see what the wind verifies at. Day 8 I went 66/32/20/0. Hopefully I can end this week with just 1 error on the low all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Huh? I thought local time is MDT over there? It is, but the climate report reports the time of the high and low temperatures in "LST", which is local standard time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 64/31/16/0 for today. The low slipping down to 32 between hourly obs was a nice touch. Currently at 150 and top at Ohio University (not saying a ton) so would be nice to have a half decent day today. Winds already looking friskier than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 61 at 11am! Run at 70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 66/32/20 in the prelim climo. Hopefully it stays that way. 16th overall and 3rd in Category 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Will end the city in 23rd. Could have done better, but I can't be too disappointed with that place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 66/32/20 in the prelim climo. Hopefully it stays that way. 16th overall and 3rd in Category 0. A perfect forecast, congratulations! This is my second year doing the WxChallenge and I still haven't had a perfect forecast (even after ending last year in 7th place overall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 A perfect forecast, congratulations! This is my second year doing the WxChallenge and I still haven't had a perfect forecast (even after ending last year in 7th place overall). I only had 9.5 total error this week, too bad I'm an alum lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Had 66/32/18/0 today so if climo holds I should finish 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Lost positions today but finished lower in the std. dev. at -1.86. 9th in Millersville and 7th in students at Millersville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Blech, pretty good forecast for today, but will end up somewhere in the 240's for this city, still a std dev. of -2.70 for the city though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Today I missed on the high and wind, which will cost me and prevent from having 2 weeks worth of bragging rights within the Ohio University meteorology majors...will finish second at OU for the city...in the 140's and a std. dev of -3.91. Much better than Houston for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Yay perfect forecast!! My only zero point day came in Juneau. Not sure how that happened. After being #1 after day 4, I finished in the 70s. Uggh. Still a successful city though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 a little disappointing after getting as high as 29th earlier this week , but I cant complain cracking the top 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Anyone know what's going on with the low? It says 34F on the climate report from an hour ago. I think the afternoon report had 32 though and obviously that's what the ASOS had as a 6-hour min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Anyone know what's going on with the low? It says 34F on the climate report from an hour ago. I think the afternoon report had 32 though and obviously that's what the ASOS had as a 6-hour min. The current (final) climate report has it correct at 32F, so no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Finished 584th lol, pretty much the same I did in Houston. At least I was better then national consensus this time. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Finished 7th in CYS...nice! 1st at Lyndon (we had 11 in the top 100, 31 above national consensus) -7.74 st. dev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 217th overall, 5th at Valpo, -3.04 st. dev. On to Norman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 The current (final) climate report has it correct at 32F, so no worries. Oh I was actually hoping that it was 34F lol. I wish I had just used the 18z GFS for lows...that thing was a beast. Too bad I had to make my forecasts at like 21z most of the time because of work. Ended up 50th overall, felt like I should've done better though, had a crappy week 2. Best I've done since I came in 44th at Riverton two years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Glancing at things, looks like the Norman mesonet site runs 2-3 degrees warmer than the OUN and OKC ASOS stations, at least today and yesterday. Somewhat frustrating that they couldn't just use OKC, I guess the University of Oklahoma really wanted to get the most of their home field advantage for this city? Edit: After going back and look farther, the mesonet appears to run pretty close to the KOKC climo numbers. Not the same though but not terribly off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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