wxmeddler Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Can't believe I forgot to forecast. Too many Boston sporting events at once for me to remember. Worst part is I am at #35 right now. Guidance isn't too bad tomorrow, assuming you guidancesd. If you climo'd though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Enjoying my brief (one hour) stay at #1 in the nation Hoping for that temp to stay as warm as possible, but it will likely drop a degree or two. Also need 0.06" worth of precip after midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 They managed to squeeze out 0.04" in the first hour Day 4, but it certainly looks like that will be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Gosh darn it. Why is it that if you miss a forecast that use climo? Isn't the 10 point penalty enough? Why beat someone down with the penalty and the crap that is a climo forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 The wind for day 3 is wrong. Should be 16 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 My normalized city score with the 15kt wind is 0.00...right at the national consensus. So loosing another half point due to them bumping the wind up to what the climo suggests it should, and thus being higher than the national consensus, be would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Yesterday they didn't fix the day 2 wind until the afternoon. Today it has 0.04" for the precip so far, but it should be 0.06", right? The models did a nice job handling that snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Today it has 0.04" for the precip so far, but it should be 0.06", right? As far as I can tell... KCYS 180753Z AUTO 35004KT 7SM SCT043 OVC090 M02/M03 A3009 RMK AO2 SNE50 SLP205 P0002 T10221033 KCYS 180653Z AUTO 03003KT 3/4SM -SN BR OVC007 M02/M03 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP206 P0004 T10221028 400331022 RVRNO Unless the last 0.02" was filtered out as blowing snow or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 No, it should definitely be 0.06". They'll update it eventually (and if not they'll get a bunch of emails from people ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 looks like snow showers / overcast conditions keeping the temp down for now KCYS 181553Z 35009KT 9SM -SN FEW021 OVC030 M02/M05 A3018 RMK AO2 SNB49 SLP250 P0000 T10171050 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 A few snow showers moving in... come on another .03! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 They changed the precip from .06 to .02. Not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Also the low should be 28F yesterday, per the climate report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Yeah I saw that too. Hopefully they get there act together. Today I went 37/27/21/.07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Looks like they fixed the min and wind for yesterday. 38/28/16/0.37" is what's shown now. Climo shows 0.41" for precip yesterday, not sure how when looking back at the hourly obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 The .04 difference was after 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Go to the rules page on wxchallenge. It's 0.37" because it came after the 6z ob at 553z, In the rules, it states that anything after the ob goes toward the next time period. From the website: " If a METAR observation has a temperature greater than the climatological report high, a temperature less than the climatological report low, a wind value greater than the climatological report values, or the climatological report is missing or deemed to be invalid, then the METAR values will be used. The precipitation verification (liquid or solid) will come from the standard 06-06 UTC METAR reports. These standard reports (not special observations) typically run between 51 and 56 minutes past the hour and will have the 6-hour codes included. Any precipitation falling after the standard 06 UTC METAR observation (even if before the 06 UTC time) will count toward the next forecast period. The climatological report will only be used as a backup if the ASOS fails and is unable to report precipitation. Care must be taken to ensure that the climatological values represent the forecast period since those reports are issued midnight to midnight local time and not 06 UTC to 06 UTC. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 The .04 difference was after 6z Go to the rules page on wxchallenge. It's 0.37" because it came after the 6z ob at 553z, In the rules, it states that anything after the ob goes toward the next time period. From the website: " If a METAR observation has a temperature greater than the climatological report high, a temperature less than the climatological report low, a wind value greater than the climatological report values, or the climatological report is missing or deemed to be invalid, then the METAR values will be used. The precipitation verification (liquid or solid) will come from the standard 06-06 UTC METAR reports. These standard reports (not special observations) typically run between 51 and 56 minutes past the hour and will have the 6-hour codes included. Any precipitation falling after the standard 06 UTC METAR observation (even if before the 06 UTC time) will count toward the next forecast period. The climatological report will only be used as a backup if the ASOS fails and is unable to report precipitation. Care must be taken to ensure that the climatological values represent the forecast period since those reports are issued midnight to midnight local time and not 06 UTC to 06 UTC. " That's what I figured. I guess it's surprising that the .04" that fell between the 553z and 653z ob all fell between 553z and 6z in order for the climo report to have that difference (since 6z is midnight out there). Either way, I'd much rather that 0.04" go towards today which it looks like it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Wxchallenge isn't suppose to take lows straight out of the climo reports. The 6z metar last night has 29 that is the low. Here is the rule: Official temperature and precipitation verifications are taken from METAR observations. A spike in temperature between hourly observations is the correct high temperature for that time interval. The climatological report will only be used as a backup if the METAR fails for temperature or precipitation reporting.The metar never failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Precip still at .02, but I am sure that will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Wxchallenge isn't suppose to take lows straight out of the climo reports. The 6z metar last night has 29 that is the low. 6z = Midnight MST. The 0553z metar reported 29, but the climo report said at 11:59 PM it hit 28. So it is 28. For Precip, the METAR says METAR KCYS 181153Z 31011KT 10SM CLR M03/M06 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP219 60006 70043 T10281056 11011 21039 53003 $ Translation: In the past 6 hours, starting at 1153z (0553z-1153z) 0.06" of precip has fallen. I don't know why the cimate report has 0.02, unless 0.04 actually did fall between 0553z and 0600z, which is what the climate report is hinting at with it's .41 and .02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 6z = Midnight MST. The 0553z metar reported 29, but the climo report said at 11:59 PM it hit 28. So it is 28. For Precip, the METAR says METAR KCYS 181153Z 31011KT 10SM CLR M03/M06 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP219 60006 70043 T10281056 11011 21039 53003 $ Translation: In the past 6 hours, starting at 1153z (0553z-1153z) 0.06" of precip has fallen. I don't know why the cimate report has 0.02, unless 0.04 actually did fall between 0553z and 0600z, which is what the climate report is hinting at with it's .41 and .02 The rule states climo report isn't to be used unless metar fails so whatever the ob has thats what it is going to be. Unless they amended the rule to say only for cities where climo reports are exactly showing 6z to 6z the climo report temps will be used, I will continue to say the official low should be 29F per the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Is anyone on here a local manager? It would be nice to get an official answer about why the low is 28. My interpretation is also that the low should be 29 since the 28 occurred after the 06Z METAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 926 to 262 in 2 days! Only 2 points away from the top of my university. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 With the 28F on day 3, I'm currently in 13th place in Cheyenne. If it changes to 29F, I fall, but am still somewhere in the top 30. Huge improvement for me over KHOU so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Wxchallenge isn't suppose to take lows straight out of the climo reports. The 6z metar last night has 29 that is the low. Here is the rule: Official temperature and precipitation verifications are taken from METAR observations. A spike in temperature between hourly observations is the correct high temperature for that time interval. The climatological report will only be used as a backup if the METAR fails for temperature or precipitation reporting.The metar never failed. To me, this doesn't seem to be very clear either way. The METAR DID fail at reporting the correct 06z-06z temperature (since it was released at 0553z), so in that sense the 28F could be the right interpretation. The problem is, it doesn't say whether it should be the 06z to 06z temperature, or the 06z-hourly-METAR to 06z-hourly-METAR temperature. Yes it says the METAR is the official source, but it also says between-hourly observations are important, and the 0559z low was between METARs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 With the 28F on day 3, I'm currently in 13th place in Cheyenne. If it changes to 29F, I fall, but am still somewhere in the top 30. Huge improvement for me over KHOU so far! Cities like Houston are so random with that convective precip. There were 4 days where they could have easily gotten .50"+ and there was no way of knowing which day they would get nailed. I had 30 for the low on Thursday so a 29 low would move me from a tie for 5th into a tie for 1st. I recognize the ambiguity in the rules but it seems strange to use the METAR for precipitation and the climo for temperature. Either it should be 28 and 0.41" or 29 and 0.37". That being said, it's probably going to be 28 and 0.37" so I'll drop it and move on. Tuesday looks dry but very windy and very warm so it should be a fun week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 To me, this doesn't seem to be very clear either way. The METAR DID fail at reporting the correct 06z-06z temperature (since it was released at 0553z), so in that sense the 28F could be the right interpretation. The problem is, it doesn't say whether it should be the 06z to 06z temperature, or the 06z-hourly-METAR to 06z-hourly-METAR temperature. Yes it says the METAR is the official source, but it also says between-hourly observations are important, and the 0559z low was between METARs. The METAR didn't fail. A failure of the metar is a failure of the ASOS meaning it's gotta be mechanical like at Burbank last year. Therefore in my interpretation using the temperature from the climo report breaks their own rule. It should be 29F. What is interesting is that the majority of OU forecasters went 28F. I feel that they are colluding. There are just too many coincidences to believe. I'm calling them out and saying they are all a bunch of CHEATERS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 The METAR didn't fail. A failure of the metar is a failure of the ASOS meaning it's gotta be mechanical like at Burbank last year. Therefore in my interpretation using the temperature from the climo report breaks their own rule. It should be 29F. What is interesting is that the majority of OU forecasters went 28F. I feel that they are colluding. There are just too many coincidences to believe. I'm calling them out and saying they are all a bunch of CHEATERS! Says who? "Fail" is an ambiguous word. Why is the sense that "the METAR failed to report the correct 06z-06z temperature" wrong? It's perfectly reasonable English. Obviously the 28 helps me, but I wouldn't complain if they changed it to 29F. But the rule is certainly not as explicit as you seem to think it is. To me, the biggest ambiguity is, as I said, "whether it should be the 06z to 06z temperature, or the 06z-hourly-METAR to 06z-hourly-METAR temperature." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Says who? "Fail" is an ambiguous word. Why is the sense that "the METAR failed to report the correct 06z-06z temperature" wrong? It's perfectly reasonable English. Obviously the 28 helps me, but I wouldn't complain if they changed it to 29F. But the rule is certainly not as explicit as you seem to think it is. To me, the biggest ambiguity is, as I said, "whether it should be the 06z to 06z temperature, or the 06z-hourly-METAR to 06z-hourly-METAR temperature." How can you explain that the metar has failed by reporting its normal and usual report 51-56z past the hour? There was no error in the report, it had 29F for the lowest at that time. The quality of the report was also deemed good since the ASOS was not in error either. And I've said before, either revise the rule or come out and say "we're going with the climo report for specific reasons explained here" Don't just go against one of the rules that is in place for things like this and say nothing about why. And Mallow, don't just say the METAR failed because it comes out before 6z otherwise put in a petition to make all METARs report at exactly 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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