HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Good point. Thx. I don't post here much but hasn't this system totally reorganized into one, and relocated to PRs east, stationary? Looks like a dry slot posing as a fake center-- that's my take. (Nice to see ya here. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I smell a downgrade to a TD at best coming with the next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Insane rain and lightning overnight in st croix although winds couldnt be any calmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I smell a downgrade to a TD at best coming with the next advisory. I agree, the center is naked and not co-located with the MLC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Likely downgrade AL, 07, 2013090512, , BEST, 0, 174N, 677W, 30, 1011, TD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Thx. Looks like a dry slot posing as a fake center-- that's my take. (Nice to see ya here. ) Pretty sure that is the COC as crappy as it is based on storm tracks and motion. Yea not anything to post about bro. Hopefully Roger Smiths mid October hybrid happens to really tick you off, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Arcus cloud to the north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Arcus cloud in the NW quadrant: Is that a sign of dry air? I know when I see them during the Mid Atlantic/Northeast Coastal bombs, it usually means the precip is done advancing northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Is that a sign of dry air? I know when I see them during the Mid Atlantic/Northeast Coastal bombs, it usually means the precip is done advancing northwest.That's dry-air entrainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 That's dry-air entrainment. collapsing Tstorms, a true signal of the halt to growth and usually a death knell for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 radar presentation is horrible this morning, bring on sept 12th. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 radar presentation is horrible this morning, bring on sept 12th. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Doesn't look like it wants to become a cane in the next six days. I think if it doesn't reform East it just dies. But that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Officially downgraded to TD Gabrielle. ... CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REFORMING IN THAT AREA. IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. THE REVISED INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA IN 24 HOURS AND TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/8. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GABRIELLE SHOULD ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 That's dry-air entrainment.Also folks living in the Delaware valley see that feature a lot from squall lines moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Just me, I wouldn't have cancelled both low level recon flights today. And hypothetical question of the day, if a new circulation develops under the lemon, would it still be Gabrielle or get a new number/name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Just me, I wouldn't have cancelled both low level recon flights today. And hypothetical question of the day, if a new circulation develops under the lemon, would it still be Gabrielle or get a new number/name? I thought they cancelled recon, but I'm seeing 1440 HDOBS. TS force winds at flight level but gentle zephyrs at sea level per smurf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Looking at the latest radar loops i'm not sure it has a closed LLC anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I really hope Gabrielle makes a miraculous comeback so we can all watch it get sheared apart by that trough in 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I really hope Gabrielle makes a miraculous comeback so we can all watch it get sheared apart by that trough in 3 days. I think I still see some kind of midlevel swirl just South of Puerto Rico, but low clouds just West of that are moving from the South. That is sad, even for an open wave. Still wondering if something new forms NE of the Virgin Islands if it'd get a new name/number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 05 Sep in the Caribbean. Lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 05 Sep in the Caribbean. Lolz. It was 1008mb and 35kts of pure awesomeness. I'll admit though that both those estimates were a little generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I wonder how much its' demise had to do with the 4000ft Puerto Rican mountains being just to the north of the center overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 6, 2013 Author Share Posted September 6, 2013 BULLETINREMNANTS OF GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0720131100 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013...GABRIELLE DISSIPATES......HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGINISLANDS...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...19.0N 68.5WABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLICMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 The way is paved to 11 Sep! Greatness is ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I wonder how much its' demise had to do with the 4000ft Puerto Rican mountains being just to the north of the center overnight Besides competition for inflow with the wave to the East, it has built an awesome anticyclone aloft, and then didn't follow it, heading North instead, putting itself in the max shear between that anticyclone and the ULL to its North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Aircraft enroute and suggestion there could be a circulation developing near the Western edge of the convection N and NE of Hispaniola. This could become a tropical depression again Aircraft near Puerto Rico now and picking up light Southwest winds. GFS suggests it would have about a day of shear less than 20 knots, then it should go downhill again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Question, after what was expected to be a busy season, what are the factors that have caused it to be so quiet so far with no hurricanes as of 9/6/2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Question, after what was expected to be a busy season, what are the factors that have caused it to be so quiet so far with no hurricanes as of 9/6/2013?Hadley Cell. See in depth discussion in the last few pages of the tropical thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Hadley Cell. See in depth discussion in the last few pages of the tropical thread. Perhaps a displaced Hadley Cell would support tropical cyclone genesis at a greater ladtitude than usual; however there have been no candidate disturbances between 30N and 50N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Perhaps a displaced Hadley Cell would support tropical cyclone genesis at a greater ladtitude than usual; however there have been no candidate disturbances between 30N and 50N.No. See the Atlantic thread for more details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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