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Remnants of Gabrielle

TropicalAnalystwx13

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

18Z SHIPS has elevated probabilities for rapid intensification over the next 24 hours.

 

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

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TropicalAnalystwx13

TropicalAnalystwx13

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS JUST ENOUGH OF A
CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A 41 KT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE.

THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DUE
TO THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED INITIAL STATE OF THE DEPRESSION. AFTER
THAT TIME...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION COULD SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...AND IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. THE
WIND SPEED PREDICTION ALSO FITS THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS...WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRUGGLE AFTER IT
LEAVES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...IS POSSIBLE AT LONG RANGE AS THE CYCLONE
INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING ROUGHLY 305/8 AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE RIDGE TO BREAK ALONG ABOUT 70W...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD IN TWO OR THREE DAYS. ONE
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES MAKES THIS TRACK FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN THAN WOULD BE
SUGGESTED BY THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD. THE NHC FORECAST IS NOT TOO
FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY ON...AND THEN IS A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT TIME...PUTTING LESS WEIGHT ON THE
NORTHWARD GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 16.5N 66.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 17.4N 67.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 18.6N 68.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 19.7N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 20.9N 69.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 23.1N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 25.3N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 29.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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Sunny and Warm

Sunny and Warm

Posted
Posted

People are more than likely going to lose their lives from TD7 in areas like Hispaniola due to the heavy rains once this takes on the large wave to its east and grows in size. 

 

I'd refrain from calling it a fish. 

 

 

After it leaves the islands, it will fish.  "Fish" 99.9% of the time refers to a miss on the CONUS or NF/NS.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

18Z GFS has 7L survive the crossing of Hispaniola, and while it looks to interact some with the nearby wave, they never combine, although 7L seems to follow in the weakness left by the neighboring waves recurve.  I wish we still had forum red taggers that worked in BM.  And once it gets near Bermuda, it slows down, as if that lone GEFS ensemble member that had a storm coming from the ESE towards the Carolinas could verify,

 

 But the takeway, it might stall near Bermuda and start coming back.  Not liking the shear, however...

 

I will check the rest of the 6Z run when I get home.

post-138-0-02767300-1378333907_thumb.gif

post-138-0-45463800-1378333955_thumb.gif

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AutoPenalti

AutoPenalti

Posted
Posted 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO
FISH:

205828W5_NL_sm.gif

I won't believe that track so long as that little wave behind the T.D. is lingering...
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

TPC has just yellow hashed the region NE of the TD 7 with a low probability.  

 

That area has a convective envelope that's some three times the size of the TD.  Looking at the wind overlay (high), it seems to be establishing it's own outflow, as it is normal to the outflow from the TD.   

 

It should be noted that a few of the models have been suggesting satellite development.  It will be interesting to see how these entities interfere with one another.  

 

In any case, ... ample oceanic heat content, and low shear environment, combined with Sat and Rad appearance ... it doesn't seem the TD will hang around TD status for very long.  We'll see. 

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TropicalAnalystwx13

TropicalAnalystwx13

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TPC has just yellow hashed the region NE of the TD 7 with a low probability.  

 

That area has a convective envelope that's some three times the size of the TD.  Looking at the wind overlay (high), it seems to be establishing it's own outflow, as it is normal to the outflow from the TD.   

 

It should be noted that a few of the models have been suggesting satellite development.  It will be interesting to see how these entities interfere with one another.  

 

In any case, ... ample oceanic heat content, and low shear environment, combined with Sat and Rad appearance ... it doesn't seem the TD will hang around TD status for very long.  We'll see. 

700mb vorticity has certainly become better defined with the surface trough northeast of TD7 since this time yesterday.

 

AXs2Wky.gif

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AutoPenalti

AutoPenalti

Posted
Posted

Do you believe the NHC forgot to consider that variable when they issued this track forecast?

No, but I was just putting it out there. I know it's pretty obvious for you guys since you're more experienced then me, I'm a 17 year old amateur trying to learn from you guys. So I apologize if I point anything obvious.
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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Be sweet if the BAMM was right, and D-SHIPS doesn't kill it despite all the land.

 

 

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *       SEVEN  AL072013  09/04/13  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    34    37    41    45    52    58    63    67    67    67    64    64
V (KT) LAND       30    34    37    41    45    52    40    45    48    48    48    40    38
V (KT) LGE mod    30    33    36    39    42    49    39    44    50    55    59    52    45
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         1     5     5     5     4     6     9    12    13    15    17    19    16
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1     0     1     2     4     0     2    -1    -1     0    -1     0    -1
SHEAR DIR        238   207   262   284   296   256   270   256   259   249   247   250   257
SST ©         29.2  29.2  29.1  29.0  28.9  28.9  29.0  29.1  29.3  29.4  29.4  29.5  29.6
POT. INT. (KT)   154   155   153   151   149   149   150   152   155   155   155   157   159
ADJ. POT. INT.   146   148   146   143   139   138   138   139   140   139   139   140   141
200 MB T ©   -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2
TH_E DEV ©      11    11    11    11    11    11    11    11    11    11    11    11    11
700-500 MB RH     63    63    60    59    61    61    60    60    60    59    59    57    56
GFS VTEX (KT)      9     8     7     7     7     7     7     7     7     6     6     5     5
850 MB ENV VOR    52    53    53    59    69    70    58    57    53    37    34    31    24
200 MB DIV        60    61    47    40    50    31    45    21    40    18    16     5    -1
700-850 TADV       1     2     5     3     0     0     2     2     3     1     3     0     2
LAND (KM)        200   150   133    95    88    33    -2    12    53    66    32   -11     7
LAT (DEG N)     16.2  16.6  16.9  17.3  17.6  17.9  18.2  18.5  18.9  19.2  19.6  20.0  20.4
LONG(DEG W)     65.9  66.8  67.7  68.6  69.4  70.8  72.2  73.4  74.6  75.3  76.0  76.5  77.2
STM SPEED (KT)     8     9     9     9     8     7     6     6     5     4     3     3     3
HEAT CONTENT      39    34    33    34    37    35    19     5    44    42    44   102    86

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/  7      CX,CY:  -5/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  506  (MEAN=624)
 

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Do you believe the NHC forgot to consider that variable when they issued this track forecast?

 

The NHC disco actually did mention that wave as a reason not to have higher confidence in their forecast track.  And I was 17 about 30 years ago. 

 

ONE

COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED

MILES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO

FEATURES MAKES THIS TRACK FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN THAN WOULD BE

SUGGESTED BY THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD.

 

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