NaoPos Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 2001-2 was the third warmest winter on record, so I could see why Adam is playing squash. Hahaha this made my morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 I ran it against the 1950-1995 average, when i did it for the 30 yr avg from 81 to present it was better, but still squash weather. I prefer to look at this another way, only once since 1884 has Philadelphia had three consecutive winters of less than 10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I prefer to look at this another way, only once since 1884 has Philadelphia had three consecutive winters of less than 10" of snow.Just like the U.S. had never gone 7 years without a major landfalling hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I'm going to look more into the potential; but, there is chance for a west-based -NAO to develop in December. I'm not sure yet on the details. If we take that potential away, we generally are dealing with a neutral AO (epo-related) / RNA style in December, dropping the cold mostly into the western states. But, should we see this "bubble" form near Greenland/D.S., it could skew the temperatures in a 1961-fashion or something. Despite the recent solar activity, +QBO and model predictions for strengthening polar vortex, their effects may be more felt in November. If certain things can occur then, it is possible we get a "NAO burp." I'll know more after I look into things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I'm going to look more into the potential; but, there is chance for a west-based -NAO to develop in December. I'm not sure yet on the details. If we take that potential away, we generally are dealing with a neutral AO (epo-related) / RNA style in December, dropping the cold mostly into the western states. But, should we see this "bubble" form near Greenland/D.S., it could skew the temperatures in a 1961-fashion or something. Despite the recent solar activity, +QBO and model predictions for strengthening polar vortex, their effects may be more felt in November. If certain things can occur then, it is possible we get a "NAO burp." I'll know more after I look into things... This will also determine how I want to handle the potential for a storm 12/21-22 across the eastern US. Originally, I was thinking Midwest/Great Lakes snowstorm and we get a nasty mix or something. But if this bubble can occur...well, not so clear lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Just like the U.S. had never gone 7 years without a major landfalling hurricane Try for 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 This will also determine how I want to handle the potential for a storm 12/21-22 across the eastern US. Originally, I was thinking Midwest/Great Lakes snowstorm and we get a nasty mix or something. But if this bubble can occur...well, not so clear lol Based on past performance since 1950, that would nearly guarantee another one later in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I'm going to look more into the potential; but, there is chance for a west-based -NAO to develop in December. I'm not sure yet on the details. If we take that potential away, we generally are dealing with a neutral AO (epo-related) / RNA style in December, dropping the cold mostly into the western states. But, should we see this "bubble" form near Greenland/D.S., it could skew the temperatures in a 1961-fashion or something. Despite the recent solar activity, +QBO and model predictions for strengthening polar vortex, their effects may be more felt in November. If certain things can occur then, it is possible we get a "NAO burp." I'll know more after I look into things... What do you look at to determine that there may a west based -nao developing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 What do you look at to determine that there may a west based -nao developing? Well what's interesting to me is the warming at 30mb and 50mb over NE Asia. I don't know if this is a response from the TC forcing the Aleutian low or something else, but it seems like ensembles also try to developing Aleutian/Bering Sea ridging way out around day 14 or so. On the other hand, most model forecasts seem to kill any warming so not sure what to think. If the analysis is right, I don't see how the warming will just get killed like the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Well what's interesting to me is the warming at 30mb and 50mb over NE Asia. I don't know if this is a response from the TC forcing the Aleutian low or something elseThat's exactly what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 That's exactly what it is Due to latent heat release I suppose from the aforementioned cause? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Due to latent heat release I suppose from the aforementioned cause?Latent heat release forces a Rossby wave train that reinforces the Aleutian Low, which causes the wave-1 response in the stratosphere, which tilts with height, causing the warming in the middle/upper stratosphere over Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Well what's interesting to me is the warming at 30mb and 50mb over NE Asia. I don't know if this is a response from the TC forcing the Aleutian low or something else, but it seems like ensembles also try to developing Aleutian/Bering Sea ridging way out around day 14 or so. On the other hand, most model forecasts seem to kill any warming so not sure what to think. If the analysis is right, I don't see how the warming will just get killed like the models show. That's exactly what it is Its going ot be interesting to see how that plays out. The mjo forcing is going to want to turn the east warmer, so it will be a battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 That's exactly what it is Cool to see how it evolved since the 10th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 This is a complicated page, but Tombo might appreciate it. All the strat stuff you want to weenie out with. http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Well what's interesting to me is the warming at 30mb and 50mb over NE Asia. I don't know if this is a response from the TC forcing the Aleutian low or something else, but it seems like ensembles also try to developing Aleutian/Bering Sea ridging way out around day 14 or so. On the other hand, most model forecasts seem to kill any warming so not sure what to think. If the analysis is right, I don't see how the warming will just get killed like the models show. Scott, is this the area at 30mb that you are talking about the warming? going from this to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Scott, is this the area at 30mb that you are talking about the warming? going from this to this Yes and you can see it here too. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp50anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I'm going to look more into the potential; but, there is chance for a west-based -NAO to develop in December. I'm not sure yet on the details. If we take that potential away, we generally are dealing with a neutral AO (epo-related) / RNA style in December, dropping the cold mostly into the western states. But, should we see this "bubble" form near Greenland/D.S., it could skew the temperatures in a 1961-fashion or something. Despite the recent solar activity, +QBO and model predictions for strengthening polar vortex, their effects may be more felt in November. If certain things can occur then, it is possible we get a "NAO burp." I'll know more after I look into things... HM You often mention solar activity in your overall analysis of earthly weather patterns and i think associate it with the polar vortex. Do you have any thoughts on how the approaching solar maximum will affect this winter? Recently there have been some pretty violent X1.7 and X2 flares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 All hail the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation! Woohoo we're getting some snow this year!!! WOOOOOOO!!!! At least that's what this Bloomberg News article imply's http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-24/if-new-york-freezes-in-january-blame-siberian-snow-now.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 This will also determine how I want to handle the potential for a storm 12/21-22 across the eastern US. Originally, I was thinking Midwest/Great Lakes snowstorm and we get a nasty mix or something. But if this bubble can occur...well, not so clear lol this is what happened in 1959 desite a plus AO NAO at the time...In 1959 NYC had snowstorm on 12/21-22...It was on the ground for Christmas...After that the winter was benign until March...1961 is another neutral negative enso analog with a snowstorm just before Christmas but the AO NAO were quite negative at the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Eurasian snow cover and Philadelphia since 1967. When its above average for October, 12 of the 22 ensuing winters were colder than the current normal, when its less than average, 10 of the 23 ensuing winters have been colder than the current normal. When its above average for October, 11 of the 23 ensuing winters were snowier than the current normal, when its less than average, 4 of the 22 ensuing winters were snowier than the current normal. (TU Adam). Snowfall is a gamma distribution, only 15 of the 45 past winters have been snowier than the current normal. Granted there are more than a couple in the 17-22" range. The temperature correlation for PHL is a weak leaner, the snowfall is more encouraging (although it failed last winter along the Delaware Valley) given we are going from 33% to about 50%. I just reprinted the Rutgers web site info and it looks as though some reassessment has been done as the values I wrote from two years ago are not the same. I'll go over them again the next couple of days and see if above changes. Eyeballing their lastest monthly graph, i don't think its going to move the needle much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 2001-2 was the third warmest winter on record, so I could see why Adam is playing squash. lolz if he can find himself a retractable roof court it may come in handy in early December if HM is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 26, 2013 Author Share Posted October 26, 2013 Eurasian snow cover and Philadelphia since 1967. When its above average for October, 12 of the 22 ensuing winters were colder than the current normal, when its less than average, 10 of the 23 ensuing winters have been colder than the current normal. When its above average for October, 11 of the 23 ensuing winters were snowier than the current normal, when its less than average, 4 of the 22 ensuing winters were snowier than the current normal. (TU Adam). Snowfall is a gamma distribution, only 15 of the 45 past winters have been snowier than the current normal. Granted there are more than a couple in the 17-22" range. The temperature correlation for PHL is a weak leaner, the snowfall is more encouraging given we are going from 33% to about 50%. I just reprinted the Rutgers web site info and it looks as though some reassessment has been done as the values I wrote from two years ago are not the same. I'll go over them again the next couple of days and see if above changes. Eyeballing their latest monthly graph, i don't think its going to move the needle much. It looks like the coverage the past several years was reaccessed higher. It did not change categories I posted above for this upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 26, 2013 Author Share Posted October 26, 2013 Mike:snowthrowers as Tony:wood??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Mike:snowthrowers as Tony:wood??? woody.jpg CFS really picking up on the amount of firewood Tony got . http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Any thoughts on the ocean temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 26, 2013 Author Share Posted October 26, 2013 The non-tropical Pacific overall better, although a weak el nino east would be problematical. The CFS2 continues to forecast an east based el-nino, but its toward the warm end of the dynamical models. The Atlantic not so good, too warm off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Any thoughts on the ocean temperatures? West based el-nino is preferred for cold and snow. The map for this year may indicate the PDO is not as negative and in fact the latest PDO is only -.48. Compared to one year ago at this time was -2.21. The winter of 11-12 saw a PDO from -1.3 to -2.33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Neutral negative enso Decembers...five warm and eight cold...each neutral negative December had a monthly negative AO index...1996 had a negative nao but still had a mild December...2012 had a slightly positive nao but the negative pna probably was the driving force for those warm Decembers...1959 was the only warm December with a plus pna...But it did have the biggest snowstorm for the warm Decembers...year.....ave temp.....AO.....NAO.....PNA1959.....38.4..........-0.043...+0.44...+0.661960.....30.9..........-0.343...+0.06...+1.461961.....35.5..........-1.668....-1.48....-1.241962.....31.5..........-0.711....-1.32....-0.081966.....35.7..........-1.401...+0.72...+0.091967.....38.2..........-0.347....-0.45....-0.821978.....38.9..........-0.980....-1.57....-0.721980.....32.5..........-0.057...+0.78....-0.271981.....36.5..........-1.216....-0.02....-0.121985.....34.2..........-1.948...+0.22...+1.391989.....25.9..........-0.644....-1.15...+0.871996.....41.3..........-1.721....-1.41....-1.23 edit...I left out 2001... 2012.....41.5..........-0.111...+0.17....-1.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 28, 2013 Author Share Posted October 28, 2013 Last run of the CFS2 is backing away from an el nino. This in reality is closer to the enso neutral outlooks of most of the other statistical and dynamical models for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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