Winter 2013-2014

[Rainshadow]

So basically we are rooting for a huge goa low to build southward into the pacific for october? Doesn't that pretty much guarantee a warmer than normal october, which would go against tony's october temperatures

Well the October temp correlation is there, but its far from perfect; there are exceptions that do occur.

[forkyfork]

The global circulation is still pretty whacked and has been since mid-summer. I have never seen the subsidence belt of the Hadley Cell reach so poleward before in the N PAC. It is still unofficial, but there may have been a record NPI set and record SST change from June to July when this occurred (of course today's daily SST maps show a substantial cooling in the NE PAC). Even now, look where the strongest +u anomalies are at 850mb in the western Tropical Pacific and the giant "black hole" on water vapor over the ME/Africa. So, let's hope this next round of tropical forcing can perform more normally this time in the Atlantic...but...yeah.

As for the winter, I do see a few things that are okay but nothing has jumped out at me yet on the things I look at day-to-day. Last year, it became obvious to me quickly that the second half would become rather snowy for New England. Nothing like that has popped out at me yet. I would say, gun-in-mouth, I'd go 65/35 warm DJF for PHL-DC.

the jet stream took a break this summer... remember the crazy ridge retrogression in july

[HM]

 

So basically we are rooting for a huge goa low to build southward into the pacific for october? Doesn't that pretty much guarantee a warmer than normal october, which would go against tony's october temperatures

 

Not necessarily... the size/amplitude of the waves, the AO etc. can all determine temperature departures. A more equatorward low anomaly in the North Pacific in October would probably produce a cold anomaly in the Southeast, anyway. This is why the temperature connection is not clear-cut as Tony indicated below.

 

Well the October temp correlation is there, but its far from perfect; there are exceptions that do occur.

 

Yeah, you could see how a low anomaly in the NE PAC can bring different temperature regimes to the Northeast, depending on the wave amplitude.

[HM]

 

the jet stream took a break this summer... remember the crazy ridge retrogression in july

I remember staring at the satellite with my jaw-dropped. The easterlies of the tropical latitudes were slamming into the East Coast. The damage has been done, too, on the SST and subsequent wave behavior across the North Atlantic / Pacific. It is quite possible we won't recover, in time for winter, from this unusual circulation.

The last time something like this happened I believe was in 2004 and possibly in the early 90s. But this year by far took over as the strongest ever SST shift/NPI in NE PAC.

[SnowGoose69]

My worry now

Is how the +EPO keeps re establishing itself. Right now it's great and giving us this kick ass weather. If it becomes the norm, HM's worries about a less than stellar DJF could be in the cards.

 

 

 

Hey Tony. This is true, generally-speaking, but it depends on the total structure at the time of interest. As Sam showed in his MQI stuff, just after the westerly peak, the mean divergence tends to shift into more favorable longitudes. Also, if we can sustain a cold ENSO, I showed how the +QBO can help keep the tropical forcing induced by ENSO more contained. This, along with the wave/wind behavior of a lower-stratospheric +QBO, seems to promote a more poleward Aleutian High. While that doesn't guarantee cold for our region, it certainly helps get the cold down into North America.

I hope this helped.

 

I could be wrong but if I recall right the EPO was raging positive several times in the early-mid Autumn and reversed for the winter the past 20-30 years, I think the fall of 1993 saw a very strongly positive EPO before it switched negative in late December.  In regards to the blocking I mentioned this in the NYC thread and I think maybe one person hinted at it here, the SST tripole right now in the ATL is awful, the only area thats somewhat okay is the area south of 30N where its largely below normal but we really need to get rid of the massive mid-latitude warm pool and warm the area near Greenland and Iceland to turn it around.

[phlwx]

At least ENSO won't be a negative this year. This years neutral is farther removed from La Nina conditions. 

 

2010-11 says hi and disagrees vehemently with conventional wisdom on this.

[chubbs]

2010-11 says hi and disagrees vehemently with conventional wisdom on this.

 yeah - if it was as simple as that it would be easy to nail a winter forecast. 

[Rainshadow]

Soooooooo..........

 

Its going to take a 2002 reversal to change this October's temperature profile which does not look likely.

 

I am pretty much conflicted with what I look at (I'm not giving up my day job this year) with all of these indicators.

 

Newfoundland pool: positive nao

What recurving tropical systems???: negative nao

Warm October:  about 70% of ensuing winters warmer than the long term median

Vigorous Siberian October snowcover:  negative ao

 

[Mitchell Gaines]

Soooooooo..........

 

Its going to take a 2002 reversal to change this October's temperature profile which does not look likely.

 

I am pretty much conflicted with what I look at (I'm not giving up my day job this year) with all of these indicators.

 

Newfoundland pool: positive nao

What recurving tropical systems???: negative nao

Warm October:  about 70% of ensuing winters warmer than the long term median

Vigorous Siberian October snowcover:  negative ao

 

Or they cancel out and you get a period of - NAO followed by + NAO equal 0, and both are not wrong. 

[Rainshadow]

Or they cancel out and you get a period of - NAO followed by + NAO equal 0, and both are not wrong. 

 

Pretty much what happened last winter as the NAO index was close to zero.  The Eurasian snow cover for September was the most since 2001.  I have to look at least at conflicted snow coverage and October temp falls, hopefully more than one example than just last year.

[tombo82685]

during this weekend i thought having a normal or slightly below below normal october was never going to happen. We should see some decent daily negative departures on thursday and friday with the onshore flow and rain from the coastal storm. That will start to knock back those excessively warm departures last week. Highs may be stuck in the low 60s or 50s thurs/fri, which is 10 or more below normal. Though night time lows will be higher, so it may only net a -5 or so. Weekend looks slightly warmer but still an onshore flow.

[NJHurricane]

Anyone else think the past 8 months have seen below average model performance in general...esp qpf max placement....going to be a lot of headaches this winter if this keeps up

[Rainshadow]

Anyone else think the past 8 months have seen below average model performance in general...esp qpf max placement....going to be a lot of headaches this winter if this keeps up

 

QPF has always been a modeling weakness.  Then add in extra complications (ratios, time of day, ground temperature, rate of fall, sun angle issues) its a wonder we come as close as we do.

[famartin]

QPF has always been a modeling weakness.  Then add in extra complications (ratios, time of day, ground temperature, rate of fall, sun angle issues) its a wonder we come as close as we do.

Its usually worse in the summer than winter too, thanks to the loveliness of convective parameterization.

[Rainshadow]

Its usually worse in the summer than winter too, thanks to the loveliness of convective parameterization.

 

Yes, exhibit A from this evening, a within 12 hour forecast of the pcpn along the nc/sc border which had convection.  The synoptic scale models (the ones that had some precipitation) missed by a factor of around 10 on the minus side, while the mesoscale models were 3 to 4 times too wet. Props though for the latter for showing that it was going to precip there.

[Rainshadow]

during this weekend i thought having a normal or slightly below below normal october was never going to happen. We should see some decent daily negative departures on thursday and friday with the onshore flow and rain from the coastal storm. That will start to knock back those excessively warm departures last week. Highs may be stuck in the low 60s or 50s thurs/fri, which is 10 or more below normal. Though night time lows will be higher, so it may only net a -5 or so. Weekend looks slightly warmer but still an onshore flow.

 

At least the way I have be drawing the line in the sand, October would still have to fall in the top third for the correlation to kick in.  So that's 58.6F or greater.  At anyrate, its rarer (9 of 23) to have above average Eurasian snow cover and a warm October here.  The exceptions were 1968 (nino), 1970 (nina), 1971 (nina), 1973 (nina), 1993 (neutral), 1998 (nina), 2001 (neutral), 2010 (nina) & 2012 (neutral).  The enso states that have a chance this winter I bolded, the others IMO are too strong in either direction.

[tombo82685]

At least the way I have be drawing the line in the sand, October would still have to fall in the top third for the correlation to kick in.  So that's 58.6F or greater.  At anyrate, its rarer (9 of 23) to have above average Eurasian snow cover and a warm October here.  The exceptions were 1968 (nino), 1970 (nina), 1971 (nina), 1973 (nina), 1993 (neutral), 1998 (nina), 2001 (neutral), 2010 (nina) & 2012 (neutral).  The enso states that have a chance this winter I bolded, the others IMO are too strong in either direction.

Assuming your highlighted years are january, feb,march of those years... 71 featured a little below normal snowfall wise, 93 was a little above, while 2001 and 2012 were bad 

[Rainshadow]

Assuming your highlighted years are january, feb,march of those years... 71 featured a little below normal snowfall wise, 93 was a little above, while 2001 and 2012 were bad 

 

I meant the October, but looks like you have the right winter descriptions. Only thing 93-94 rocked north and west of Philadelphia while we locally had all of those ice storms. 

[NJHurricane]

I meant the October, but looks like you have the right winter descriptions. Only thing 93-94 rocked north and west of Philadelphia while we locally had all of those ice storms.

was that the mt pinatubo fallout winter?

[HM]

was that the mt pinatubo fallout winter?

 

The winter with the strongest effects was 91-92, when sulfur dioxide took its toll on the ozone supply. But these processes in the stratosphere/and above take years to resolve, so 92-93 and 93-94 are both considered "effected" in that sense. Most studies will make note of the first winter and next 2 years after a stratovolcano in their research, usually omitting them altogether if necessary.

[dryslotted]

I meant the October, but looks like you have the right winter descriptions. Only thing 93-94 rocked north and west of Philadelphia while we locally had all of those ice storms.

It was almost a week straight in late January with the ice storms, I seem to recall not having class the first full week of the semester...

[iceman56]

_{Accuwx leaning heavily on mild, snowless first half of winter for the region with PHL winding up with about 70% of normal snowfall (~15").}

 

_{Mild December with cooling Jan-Feb.}

[easternsnowman]

_{Accuwx leaning heavily on mild, snowless first half of winter for the region with PHL winding up with about 70% of normal snowfall (~15").}

 

_{Mild December with cooling Jan-Feb.}

Unfortunately they may be right, however I think north and west of the city will do much better with at least average snowfall.

[Boch23]

_{Accuwx leaning heavily on mild, snowless first half of winter for the region with PHL winding up with about 70% of normal snowfall (~15").}

 

_{Mild December with cooling Jan-Feb.}

 

 

Well last year they said cold and above average snowfall and the opposite happened.......So I'm happy thats what they are saying.

[Guest Pamela]

Total Snowfall
2000-01 through 2012-13 (Last 13 Years)

Boston / Logan Airport: 620.9 inches / average 47.76 inches
Brookhaven Lab, L.I. / Upton: 538.6 inches / average 41.43 inches
New York City / Central Park: 410.1 inches / average 31.55 inches
Philadelphia / International Airport: 321.9 inches / average 24.76 inches
Baltimore / BWI Airport: 253.0 inches / average 19.46 inches
Washington / Reagan Airport: 182.7 inches / average 14.05 inches           

[Absolute Humidity]

MBY 492 37.85 inches

[Isotherm]

MBY 492 37.85 inches

 

 

441" here for an average of 33.9" for 2000-2013. Just a couple ticks below my 2000-2010 average of 34.1". Impressive stretch.

[Absolute Humidity]

441" here for an average of 33.9" for 2000-2013. Just a couple ticks below my 2000-2010 average of 34.1". Impressive stretch.

Agreed.

[Rainshadow]

Total Snowfall

2000-01 through 2012-13 (Last 13 Years)

Boston / Logan Airport: 620.9 inches / average 47.76 inches

Brookhaven Lab, L.I. / Upton: 538.6 inches / average 41.43 inches

New York City / Central Park: 410.1 inches / average 31.55 inches

Philadelphia / International Airport: 321.9 inches / average 24.76 inches

Baltimore / BWI Airport: 253.0 inches / average 19.46 inches

Washington / Reagan Airport: 182.7 inches / average 14.05 inches           

William,

 

That Upton average really stands out.

[CoastalWx]

William,

 

That Upton average really stands out.

 

Upton has been clocked by a few storms that just missed NYC. Almost a little further east than one would think, but the central part of LI almost has a second max thanks to Miller Bs exiting stage right.