Winter 2013-2014

[famartin]

I believe most of Chester county and parts of delaware county received around 85 inches in 09-10.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/17156-2010-2011-philly-area-seasonal-snowfall-map/?p=631326

[tombo82685]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/17156-2010-2011-philly-area-seasonal-snowfall-map/?p=631326

pretty much what i thought 70-80 with the bulls eye over mt brookhaven

[chubbs]

Per link above, nice to look at Ray's maps for 2009/10 and 2010/11. Its been feast or famine the last 4 years.

[easternsnowman]

I believe Pual chestercounty weather stated he had 85 or 86 inches over there near thorndale

[famartin]

I believe Pual chestercounty weather stated he had 85 or 86 inches over there near thorndale

Paul's elevation of 708 feet renders his observations unrepresentative of the county as a whole, since most of Chester County is much lower than that.  While in a single event the difference may be very small (though we know even this is often not the case), over time it results in a large cool/snowy bias compared to the rest of the county.

[easternsnowman]

Paul's elevation of 708 feet renders his observations unrepresentative of the county as a whole, since most of Chester County is much lower than that.  While in a single event the difference may be very small (though we know even this is often not the case), over time it results in a large cool/snowy bias compared to the rest of the county.

I'm couple of hundred feet less and had close to that, but it looks philly airport did very well with almost 79 inches, so most areas were close in snowfall that year.

[phlwx]

Still paying our dues for 09's winter

 

and the one after that (although that was just a six week shot...it was still a rocking six weeks).

[iceman56]

I believe Pual chestercounty weather stated he had 85 or 86 inches over there near thorndale

Paul's not near Thorndale relatively speaking.  He's 3 miles from me in NW Chester Co.   Glenmoore is closest village.

[White_Mtn_Wx]

Paul's station was originally in Thorndale if I remember correctly. And yes, there is a vast difference between the NW part of the county and the remaining. I live at 800' and within a mile of almost 1000' elevation and work in Thorndale at 300'. The weather during winter often is completely different between the 2 locations. On a couple occasions last year I had to show people pictures of the accumulation of snow at my house when there was none a few miles away because they didn't believe me.

[ezweather]

Hi Everyone,

 

First, did anyone catch this article - http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/weather_blogs/historic-low-sun-activity-to-impact-winter-temperatures

 

Sounds to me we could be facing a much colder winter season.  The article above does present an interesting theory on how the polar vortex could behave, especially being displaced.  Plus the idea of more blocking this winter.

 

The other question is the development of a weak El Nino, plus if we see the resurgence of the subtropical jet.  

 

If I had to make a call for this winter and this one is a preliminary call... I think we could be facing much below average temperatures and above average snowfall this winter. So, a colder and snowier one to me looks possible.   Since we saw a ton of rain over the summer months, I think that could mean we continue that into early next year.  We'll have to see if we continue this above average precip streak.  We certainly got a ton of rain over the summer.  

 

Anyway, we'll have to see if a weak El Nino develops and how that polar vortex sets up as approach November and December.  

[HM]

Hi Everyone,

First, did anyone catch this article - http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/weather_blogs/historic-low-sun-activity-to-impact-winter-temperatures

Sounds to me we could be facing a much colder winter season. The article above does present an interesting theory on how the polar vortex could behave, especially being displaced. Plus the idea of more blocking this winter.

The other question is the development of a weak El Nino, plus if we see the resurgence of the subtropical jet.

If I had to make a call for this winter and this one is a preliminary call... I think we could be facing much below average temperatures and above average snowfall this winter. So, a colder and snowier one to me looks possible. Since we saw a ton of rain over the summer months, I think that could mean we continue that into early next year. We'll have to see if we continue this above average precip streak. We certainly got a ton of rain over the summer.

Anyway, we'll have to see if a weak El Nino develops and how that polar vortex sets up as approach November and December.

A giant "meh" is in order here. The sun, while historically low for a max, is still more active than 2009-2011. All available metrics place this in either the "can't help you slot" or "variable" option. The NAO behavior lately is enough to fill in the blanks.

El Nino still seems unlikely. The issue with warming climate normals is the only argument that's valid; otherwise, it is neutral.

[ezweather]

Hi HM,

 

Always great to hear your thoughts.

 

Sometimes I go with my gut on how things will be shaping up for long range forecasting.  Sometimes they say its like instinct.  So, I still think we could be in for a colder winter and more snow than last year, perhaps above average.  

 

I think the Euro model was pointing toward a weak El Nino, but we have to see if it even develops.  Thats interesting about the sun.  So, whats your thoughts on the type of winter we could be facing.  

 

The one thing I gotta see is how the tropical season will play out in October.  Still think it can pick up again.  Something tells me that we could see a lot of action the second half of October..

[NaoPos]

Also of note, a displaced PV can be a coin toss in terms of helpfulness for us east coast weenies.

If you get a displaced PV, albeit strong, over say GOA(gulf of Alaska), the Pacific set up becomes putrid and floods the conus with warm, pacific air. (A la early winter).

Just have to be careful what we wish for.

My question is , how does the lack of a hurricane season and associated ACE output affect the following winter. Actually, while we're at it, how a worldwide lack of tropical cyclones at that. Soooo many questions, not a whole lot of answers

[nflwxman]

Hi HM,

 

Always great to hear your thoughts.

 

Sometimes I go with my gut on how things will be shaping up for long range forecasting.  Sometimes they say its like instinct.  So, I still think we could be in for a colder winter and more snow than last year, perhaps above average.  

 

I think the Euro model was pointing toward a weak El Nino, but we have to see if it even develops.  Thats interesting about the sun.  So, whats your thoughts on the type of winter we could be facing.  

 

The one thing I gotta see is how the tropical season will play out in October.  Still think it can pick up again.  Something tells me that we could see a lot of action the second half of October..

 

I think the euro model was developing a weak el nino by january/Feb.  Could be a little too late to help the 39-S cause.  Besides, the 3.4 predictive models have just been terrible the last 2 years (remember summer 2012).

[ezweather]

So true about what you say about the Pacific Jet and the Polar Vortex.  I think it was 2011-2012 winter where the PV camped out over Alaska.  Last year we had this insane blocking up near Alaska.  Certainly can remember some of the winters pasts where it can really painful.  Hopefully this winter will be a lot better than last year.. 

 

 

Also of note, a displaced PV can be a coin toss in terms of helpfulness for us east coast weenies.

If you get a displaced PV, albeit strong, over say GOA(gulf of Alaska), the Pacific set up becomes putrid and floods the conus with warm, pacific air. (A la early winter).

Just have to be careful what we wish for.

My question is , how does the lack of a hurricane season and associated ACE output affect the following winter. Actually, while we're at it, how a worldwide lack of tropical cyclones at that. Soooo many questions, not a whole lot of answers

[ezweather]

I hear ya on that.  But if it actually develops that would be huge.  Well, as they say, let's see how things trend in the meantime.  

 

I think the euro model was developing a weak el nino by january/Feb.  Could be a little too late to help the 39-S cause.  Besides, the 3.4 predictive models have just been terrible the last 2 years (remember summer 2012).

[easternsnowman]

I hear ya on that.  But if it actually develops that would be huge.  Well, as they say, let's see how things trend in the meantime.  

I agree that a weak el nino will especially help this area, anyway I do think Allentown on north is in for a cold snowy winter and if things you talked about work out then this area is also in on the fun!

[HM]

I think the Euro model was pointing toward a weak El Nino, but we have to see if it even develops.  Thats interesting about the sun.  So, whats your thoughts on the type of winter we could be facing.  

 

The one thing I gotta see is how the tropical season will play out in October.  Still think it can pick up again.  Something tells me that we could see a lot of action the second half of October..

 

The global circulation is still pretty whacked and has been since mid-summer. I have never seen the subsidence belt of the Hadley Cell reach so poleward before in the N PAC. It is still unofficial, but there may have been a record NPI set and record SST change from June to July when this occurred (of course today's daily SST maps show a substantial cooling in the NE PAC). Even now, look where the strongest +u anomalies are at 850mb in the western Tropical Pacific and the giant "black hole" on water vapor over the ME/Africa. So, let's hope this next round of tropical forcing can perform more normally this time in the Atlantic...but...yeah.

 

As for the winter, I do see a few things that are okay but nothing has jumped out at me yet on the things I look at day-to-day. Last year, it became obvious to me quickly that the second half would become rather snowy for New England. Nothing like that has popped out at me yet. I would say, gun-in-mouth, I'd go 65/35 warm DJF for PHL-DC.

[Rainshadow]

I hear ya on that.  But if it actually develops that would be huge.  Well, as they say, let's see how things trend in the meantime.  

 

Hi John,

 

I thought the QBO phase this upcoming winter would favor less blocking.  This is not my schtick, but basically unless October dissuades me, I'm seeing a host of contradictions for this winter. I'm kind of eh on weak el nino (at least in 3,4), the cfs tends to go in the right direction but too much of an amplitude. EC's nino outlooks IDK dont seem better than the rest. It would be awfully awfully awfully awfully hard for PHL to 3-pete with yet another single digit winter.

[ezweather]

Hi Tony,

 

Well, my time has been limited to really dive into how this winter will setup.  Heck, I gotta go grab that briefing you did and read up.  You would think, we gotta do better with snowfall this year.  Wild card will be can a weak El Nino form.  For now, in my preliminary thinking, I'm going with a colder and snowier winter compared to last year. In the meantime,

 

Anyway, let's see what happens and still have to see whether the tropics finish off with a bang.  Man, amazingly quiet right now.  

[famartin]

Hi Tony,

 

Well, my time has been limited to really dive into how this winter will setup.  Heck, I gotta go grab that briefing you did and read up.  You would think, we gotta do better with snowfall this year.  Wild card will be can a weak El Nino form.  For now, in my preliminary thinking, I'm going with a colder and snowier winter compared to last year. In the meantime,

 

At PHL, that's not hard

[chubbs]

At least ENSO won't be a negative this year. This years neutral is farther removed from La Nina conditions. 

[HM]

 

At least ENSO won't be a negative this year. This years neutral is farther removed from La Nina conditions.

Here's the problem I have with that logic: both states that would possibly occur are not the best for cold here.

Let's say El Nino continues to strengthen by some miracle; it would take on a classic "east-based" appearance. It wouldn't be a total loss by any means, snow-wise, but it wouldn't be pretty either. If we stay as we are, we essentially are in a sort of "west-based" La Nina state. This is also pretty lame for winter fans and promotes more RNA than anything.

Basically, cold water near the Dateline and warm water on either side is usually the wrong way you want the anomalies to fall...regardless if we label it neutral, El Nino or whatever.

[HM]

 

At PHL, that's not hard

Yeah, I agree here. I'm sure many areas in the PHL-DC area will do better than last year just by simple statistics. But I'm not sold on a cold DJF like we keep seeing from other sources.

[NaoPos]

My worry now

Is how the +EPO keeps re establishing itself. Right now it's great and giving us this kick ass weather. If it becomes the norm, HM's worries about a less than stellar DJF could be in the cards.

[HM]

 

Hi John,

 

I thought the QBO phase this upcoming winter would favor less blocking.

Hey Tony. This is true, generally-speaking, but it depends on the total structure at the time of interest. As Sam showed in his MQI stuff, just after the westerly peak, the mean divergence tends to shift into more favorable longitudes. Also, if we can sustain a cold ENSO, I showed how the +QBO can help keep the tropical forcing induced by ENSO more contained. This, along with the wave/wind behavior of a lower-stratospheric +QBO, seems to promote a more poleward Aleutian High. While that doesn't guarantee cold for our region, it certainly helps get the cold down into North America.

I hope this helped.

[tombo82685]

My worry now

Is how the +EPO keeps re establishing itself. Right now it's great and giving us this kick ass weather. If it becomes the norm, HM's worries about a less than stellar DJF could be in the cards.

you can thank the lower hgts/goa low for that. Pretty much the kiss of death for cold because it floods canada with warmth and bottles all the cold air around the pole.

[HM]

 

My worry now

Is how the +EPO keeps re establishing itself. Right now it's great and giving us this kick ass weather. If it becomes the norm, HM's worries about a less than stellar DJF could be in the cards.

 

I agree that if we see that same feature in DJF, Adam will be busting out the torch. The good news for cold-lovers is that this feature is actually very normal in September-October. In fact, I almost encourage a very solid Gulf of Alaska low anomaly this time of year. The more equatorward and intense, the better the potential for cold in DJF. If we see it having trouble amplifying southward, in the anomaly fields, through next month, then we may have to start worrying about the DJF torch.

[tombo82685]

 

 

I agree that if we see that same feature in DJF, Adam will be busting out the torch. The good news for cold-lovers is that this feature is actually very normal in September-October. In fact, I almost encourage a very solid Gulf of Alaska low anomaly this time of year. The more equatorward and intense, the better the potential for cold in DJF. If we see it having trouble amplifying southward, in the anomaly fields, through next month, then we may have to start worrying about the DJF torch.

So basically we are rooting for a huge goa low to build southward into the pacific for october? Doesn't that pretty much guarantee a warmer than normal october, which would go against tony's october temperatures

[Rainshadow]

 

Hey Tony. This is true, generally-speaking, but it depends on the total structure at the time of interest. As Sam showed in his MQI stuff, just after the westerly peak, the mean divergence tends to shift into more favorable longitudes. Also, if we can sustain a cold ENSO, I showed how the +QBO can help keep the tropical forcing induced by ENSO more contained. This, along with the wave/wind behavior of a lower-stratospheric +QBO, seems to promote a more poleward Aleutian High. While that doesn't guarantee cold for our region, it certainly helps get the cold down into North America.

I hope this helped.

HM,

 

Thanks. I admit I am not well versed in QBO and figured my statement was way too generic.  Plus we went through a recent negative QBO winter without muck blocking.