Animal Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Snowfall map for 2012/13 from NWS State College. Overall a mediocre year for their coverage area in SE PA as it was here. Very impressive for Laurel Summit. I assume that is well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 My post from NY Metro portal is attached. Locals are talking about a severe winter already!. I was told the last time August was this cold & warm blast in September, we had winter from November to April with 110 + on the block for snow. 1st cool day of fall on the ridge line. Max temp 59. Deer are running hard (had 2 bucks & 5 females in the yard this morning)with the bears active(saw 2 yesterday asking for doughnuts). Current temp 48F. Winter looks to be cold and snowy according to the locals. Summer ended near the end of July. I only took one dip in the lake in August. Tree color will be near peak in 2 weeks. Best, Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 My post from NY Metro portal is attached. Locals are talking about a severe winter already!. I was told the last time August was this cold & warm blast in September, we had winter from November to April with 110 + on the block for snow. When was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Matt.....Same here in NW Chesco today with High of only 59.1....well below normal for this time of year but certainly not sure that has any bearing on upcoming winter My post from NY Metro portal is attached. Locals are talking about a severe winter already!. I was told the last time August was this cold & warm blast in September, we had winter from November to April with 110 + on the block for snow. 1st cool day of fall on the ridge line. Max temp 59. Deer are running hard (had 2 bucks & 5 females in the yard this morning)with the bears active(saw 2 yesterday asking for doughnuts). Current temp 48F. Winter looks to be cold and snowy according to the locals. Summer ended near the end of July. I only took one dip in the lake in August. Tree color will be near peak in 2 weeks. Best, Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Can you post some of the pros and cons that you see? Maybe so we can see how things progress through autumn. I'm just quickly thinking of things, so there will be more I'm sure... 1) I like how quiet the sun is, and we may be beyond "absolute peak" with the magnetic reversal in sunspots; however, it is a long-drawn-out process that could take another year or so. We'll likely see additional spikes, sure, but possibly the strongest is behind us. If we see an exceptionally strong spike develop this autumn, it should be something we consider highly for the AO (no need to say +AO if we see a general increase, which usually happens that time of year anyway). 2) The colder ENSO is, and the quieter the sun is this winter, the better the opportunity for blocking, specifically the Aleutian High. So the latest MEI is promising. 3) The post-peak MQI phases favor propagating, off-equatorial anomalies (CHI/OLR) into "phase 7-8-1" etc... 4) There has been a pretty weak SAO happening for the equinoxes this year and westerly anomalies are downright fail. Let's see how the equatorial stratopause winds do over the next 60 days. 5) The storm track that kicks in during autumn may be developing faster, which is a good thing. But the data is still preliminary on that. Global circulation this summer has been really kooky! 6) I do not like how large the Tropical Heating has been and how the equatorial players may favor quite an extensive area of heat (E-C IO to W. Pac) this winter. This may fight against the PV. See 2011-12 for a great example of why. 7) I'm worried the SST will prevent deeper waves from developing this cold season and promote zonal, fast flow. I am talking about the northern Pacific and Atlantic. FWIW, I think I might like the last week of December for some winter fun with anomalous cold and probably some snow event(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 21, 2013 Author Share Posted September 21, 2013 Not exactly extratropical, but it was interesting to follow the progression of the mon/tue non(?) system. 00z Wed Op Euro was very bullish. The 12z run that day lost it (although the 00z ensemble average didnt exactly look bullish) and then the GFS lost it the subsequent night's run. Looking for a benchmark of model stabilization for the winter, i.e. when can the med range be used with greater confidence. So, if it stays south, the first salvo says day 4-5 with a nod to the Euro losing it first. If it comes north, nobody is winning as of 12z Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Fwiw, though, a lot of that has to do with 95L being slower and weaker than forecast earlier in the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 21, 2013 Author Share Posted September 21, 2013 Fwiw, though, a lot of that has to do with 95L being slower and weaker than forecast earlier in the week MJO out of phase a contributing factor? Or do I seriously have too much for the MJO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Let's hope a certain feature doesn't become a semi permanent fixture as we head forward: Very Nina like pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Let's hope a certain feature doesn't become a semi permanent fixture as we head forward: Very Nina like pattern Yeah that's a normal look for us even with a trough anomaly over the east. Any real cold air goes from Siberia into that huge Gulf of Alaska trough. Good thing it's fall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Nice start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 The talk in this thread doesn't seem to promising for a good winter here either in the temperature or snowfall department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 MJO out of phase a contributing factor? Or do I seriously have too much for the MJO?Probably. Also probably had to do with depth and strength of H5 trough, as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Let's hope a certain feature doesn't become a semi permanent fixture as we head forward: like pattern Yeah that's a normal look for us even with a trough anomaly over the east. Any real cold air goes from Siberia into that huge Gulf of Alaska trough. Good thing it's fall now. I'm happy to have a piece of the PV sitting near eastern Siberia in October. All the better to get the snow cover started on a positive note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 23, 2013 Author Share Posted September 23, 2013 Nice start! Hi Mitch. How are you? Getting better every day and the latest Euro run is not going to hurt either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 23, 2013 Author Share Posted September 23, 2013 Dr. Hart's research paper is going to disagree with the Newfoundland pool result for the +NAO for this upcoming winter unless something dramatically changes the last third of this tropical season. I dont see any NH recurving storms north of 40N and even liberally using UNISYS's tracks, we are still not yet in NAO neutral territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 I think NYC north does well this winter, not sure about these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 23, 2013 Author Share Posted September 23, 2013 Not saying its this winter, because if I "knew" I'd be independently wealthy but its been a while since we've had a south of 40N (even if its not by raw numbers, but by percentages of average) winter, somewhere down the road its going to happen. How's that for jumping in with both feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 It would be great if we all had a nice snowy winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Not saying its this winter, because if I "knew" I'd be independently wealthy but its been a while since we've had a south of 40N (even if its not by raw numbers, but by percentages of average) winter, somewhere down the road its going to happen. How's that for jumping in with both feet? Parts of VA have done very well the last couple winters relative to normal snowfall because of a few oddball clippers, etc... while DC and Baltimore have gotten nearly shut out and you folks from PHL and points north have done pretty well again. I'm ready for a 39N winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Parts of VA have done very well the last couple winters relative to normal snowfall because of a few oddball clippers, etc... while DC and Baltimore have gotten nearly shut out and you folks from PHL and points north have done pretty well again. I'm ready for a 39N winter I believe philly (airport) didn't do too well suburbs did much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Phl has been under 10" the past two winters. According to the Franklin Institute data this has only happened three times since 1884. Snowfall in the winters following 2 <10" winters:: 1890/91 - 15.2", 1931/32 - 8.0" and 1951/52 - 16.2. Average of the three is 13.1". Very limited sample but not too encouraging for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Still paying our dues for 09's winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Not saying its this winter, because if I "knew" I'd be independently wealthy but its been a while since we've had a south of 40N (even if its not by raw numbers, but by percentages of average) winter, somewhere down the road its going to happen. How's that for jumping in with both feet? 2009-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 2009-10? That one's epicenter was in Delaware County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 That one's epicenter was in Delaware County. vs. normal? I would've guessed DC was the largest vs. normal percentage-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 vs. normal? I would've guessed DC was the largest vs. normal percentage-wise. lol i think he is talking about ray's map where everyone was around 75-80 inches then there was one small bulls eye right around brookhaven with 91 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 lol i think he is talking about ray's map where everyone was around 75-80 inches then there was one small bulls eye right around brookhaven with 91 inches You got it. I get paid the same either way, just seems like a host of contradictions for this upcoming winter,. I already tip my hat to whoever gets it close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I believe most of Chester county and parts of delaware county received around 85 inches in 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I believe most of Chester county and parts of delaware county received around 85 inches in 09-10. gotta look at rays map, but i don't think it was that high. prob more like 70-80. Chester county missed out (relatively speaking) on the decemper 19 storm where the airport had 2 feet and south jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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