am19psu Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Cautiously optimistic for a better snow total this winter based on a waning La Nina influence. Does a wet summer help? I recall that 09 summer was wetter than normal.The wet summer itself doesn't really mean anything... now the reasons for WHY we had a wet summer could matter, but not all wet summers materialize from the same forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 Follows a gamma distribution, Tony. Adam, Thank-you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 The snow advancement last October was very impressive, I believe it ended up only 2nd to 2009 (using the daily data set back to 1997) and as far as I'm concerned it did its job in producing a -AO winter. It's the temperature part that didnt perform largely due to a poor Pacific Dec into much of Jan. The dearth of snow in the Delaware Valley was the more surprising outcome than the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Cautiously optimistic for a better snow total this winter based on a waning La Nina influence. Does a wet summer help? I recall that 09 summer was wetter than normal. The wet summer itself doesn't really mean anything... now the reasons for WHY we had a wet summer could matter, but not all wet summers materialize from the same forcing. One thing, I think...could be wrong...but I think the summer of 09 was wet all the way through and didn't get drier in August like this summer did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 One thing, I think...could be wrong...but I think the summer of 09 was wet all the way through and didn't get drier in August like this summer did?Yeah, but why? It's not the rain that falls, but how it got there. For example, this year, we've seen the subtropical highs displaced farther to the north than normal (note: not stronger than normal), which has made for a storm track farther north than normal with more moisture available than normal. If that type of pattern holds, what does it translate to in the cold season...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Yeah, but why? It's not the rain that falls, but how it got there. For example, this year, we've seen the subtropical highs displaced farther to the north than normal (note: not stronger than normal), which has made for a storm track farther north than normal with more moisture available than normal. If that type of pattern holds, what does it translate to in the cold season...? I think the wet summers never really give a prognostication for a wet winter. Summer time its all about thunderstorms. Look at philly, they are 15 inches above normal while reading is almost an inch below normal. It's been a summer of thunderstorms pretty much affecting the same area. If this summer had a lot of strati-form rains then i would think that may lead to a better chance of a wetter fall into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Tombo, Snowfall is not a "normal" distribution. I forget if its just called skewed and Mark is no longer here to straighten me. Anyway, last 45 winters since snow cover has been measured, 30 have had below the current average snowfall in Philadelphia and 15 above the current average. If Siberian (Eurasian really as far as I can obtain) snow cover averages above normal for October, 11 of the 23 ensuing winters have been snowier than average in PHL. If Siberian snow cover averages below for October, its 4 of 22. As for temperatures, using the '67-'12 median of 35.0F, if Siberian snow cover averages above normal for October, 12 of the 23 ensuing winters averaged below 35.0F in PHL. If Siberian snow cover averages below for October, its 10 of the 22 ensuing winters averaged below 35.0F. Mark did some statistical testing on this before he retired and found no worthwhile correlation between snow cover and winter temperatures in our area. Tony, thanks for the information. What matches up better? Siberian snow cover or october temperatures in terms of a snowier winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Tombo, Snowfall is not a "normal" distribution. I forget if its just called skewed and Mark is no longer here to straighten me. Anyway, last 45 winters since snow cover has been measured, 30 have had below the current average snowfall in Philadelphia and 15 above the current average. Precipitation here in Elko follows a similarly "skewed" gamma (thanks Adam) distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Will there be Mountain Torque discussion again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Will there be Mountain Torque discussion again?You know it. And I'm more informed about it now, so get ready to muddle through more technical crap from me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 You know it. And I'm more informed about it now, so get ready to muddle through more technical crap from me! I'm expecting you or HM to start the medium/long range thread for here with a detailed and scientific opening of good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 It would be pretty cool to see the percentage breakdown in philly during winter of how much precip falls as snow and how much as rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 It would be pretty cool to see the percentage breakdown in philly during winter of how much precip falls as snow and how much as rain For all the different winters, or on average? Since snow:water ratios are, overall, not much above 10:1, you can easily estimate. For PHL, normal Dec-Feb precip is 9.24" and average snowfall is 18.7", so the percentage that is snow is approximately 20%. You could add a little maybe for the higher ratio snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 For all the different winters, or on average? Since snow:water ratios are, overall, not much above 10:1, you can easily estimate. For PHL, normal Dec-Feb precip is 9.24" and average snowfall is 18.7", so the percentage that is snow is approximately 20%. You could add a little maybe for the higher ratio snows. From phl climo. Assuming 10:1 Snow Precip Snow % Dec 3.4 3.79 9.0% Jan 6.5 3.03 21.5% Feb 8.8 2.65 33.2% Mar 2.9 3.79 7.7% All 21.6 13.26 16.3% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 Tony, thanks for the information. What matches up better? Siberian snow cover or october temperatures in terms of a snowier winter? Tombo, Never really looked at Oct temps and snow. The way the correlation goes the colder the October, the colder the winter, so the easier for it to snow. But we have all seen exceptions in both directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 The dearth of snow in the Delaware Valley was the more surprising outcome than the temps. You guys definitely got screwed there..At least you managed a few inches out of Feb 9th in the mt holly area versus kPHL.. gradient to the northeast was crazy sharp last year with just around 45" measured in stamford Yeah, but why? It's not the rain that falls, but how it got there. For example, this year, we've seen the subtropical highs displaced farther to the north than normal (note: not stronger than normal), which has made for a storm track farther north than normal with more moisture available than normal. If that type of pattern holds, what does it translate to in the cold season...? HM would say no bueno. But that pattern can change in the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 You guys definitely got screwed there..At least you managed a few inches out of Feb 9th in the mt holly area versus kPHL.. gradient to the northeast was crazy sharp last year with just around 45" measured in stamford HM would say no bueno. But that pattern can change in the fall Nevermind Stamford, a poster in Freehold NJ recorded 37" due to the jackpot of the November snowstorm. Don't know what you ended up with in Holmdel but I managed an above normal season b/c of the Nov event, at 34.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Nevermind Stamford, a poster in Freehold NJ recorded 37" due to the jackpot of the November snowstorm. Don't know what you ended up with in Holmdel but I managed an above normal season b/c of the Nov event, at 34.6". Most areas in south jersey and in chester county pa did much better than phila. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Nevermind Stamford, a poster in Freehold NJ recorded 37" due to the jackpot of the November snowstorm. Don't know what you ended up with in Holmdel but I managed an above normal season b/c of the Nov event, at 34.6". My pops measured 25" in Holmdel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Most areas in south jersey and in chester county pa did much better than phila. Guess it depends on what you consider "south jersey" and "much better" to be. http://www.lightinthestorm.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/NJ-Snowfall-2012-to-13.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Guess it depends on what you consider "south jersey" and "much better" to be. http://www.lightinthestorm.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/NJ-Snowfall-2012-to-13.png Good map and if not for the 2/1 clipper, we down here would have had almost nothing for 2 winters in a row. Glad i chased that big Feb storm up to my old hometown in Morris Co, NJ where they got about a foot. I hold slightly more optimism for this winter. Is there data for seasonal snowfalls that go back 30+ years for south coastal NJ? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Guess it depends on what you consider "south jersey" and "much better" to be. http://www.lightinthestorm.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/NJ-Snowfall-2012-to-13.png I guess I should say central NJ about the same latitude of philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 I guess I should say central NJ about the same latitude of philly Also by seeing by your map snowfall was definitely a matter of location last year and philly probably was the worse of all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Also by seeing by your map snowfall was definitely a matter of location last year and philly probably was the worse of all Its Tom's map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Also by seeing by your map snowfall was definitely a matter of location last year and philly probably was the worse of all Outside of the blizzard and the early nov snowfall. Majority of the snow events last year had bl issues. So being further away from the city and having some elevation helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Good map and if not for the 2/1 clipper, we down here would have had almost nothing for 2 winters in a row. Glad i chased that big Feb storm up to my old hometown in Morris Co, NJ where they got about a foot. I hold slightly more optimism for this winter. Is there data for seasonal snowfalls that go back 30+ years for south coastal NJ? Thanks. I had 4.1" on the 1st and 1.2" on the 2nd. Best one-two "punch" of the winter! As for seasonal snowfall I live about 1 mile south of the Cape May Canal and have been measuring for the N.W.S since 1975. A complete record goes back to 1968. Before that sporadic would be the best description. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Snowfall map for 2012/13 from NWS State College. Overall a mediocre year for their coverage area in SE PA as it was here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Outside of the blizzard and the early nov snowfall. Majority of the snow events last year had bl issues. So being further away from the city and having some elevation helped. Yes it was one of those winters where a couple of degrees made all the difference, where most in chester county had over 20 inches and philly (airport) I believe had less than 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I'm expecting you or HM to start the medium/long range thread for here with a detailed and scientific opening of good news Ugh...didn't we just do this?! Let's just keep winter weather confined to DJFM this year (I suppose late NOV is acceptable)! Last several winters have brought some kind of winter storm in the autumn and it is just a kick in the, well you know. HM would say no bueno. But that pattern can change in the fall As usual, there are things I like and things I don't which means we probably don't see an extreme NAM index this year. Let's see how we transition into autumn; we can easily transition into a more favorable HC network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Ugh...didn't we just do this?! Let's just keep winter weather confined to DJFM this year (I suppose late NOV is acceptable)! Last several winters have brought some kind of winter storm in the autumn and it is just a kick in the, well you know. As usual, there are things I like and things I don't which means we probably don't see an extreme NAM index this year. Let's see how we transition into autumn; we can easily transition into a more favorable HC network. Can you post some of the pros and cons that you see? Maybe so we can see how things progress through autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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