Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Fall 2013 Banter Thread


Snow_Miser

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 235
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Well at least we're getting storms.  That's half the battle.

if it was in January following near record lows we would be getting ice now...This storm reminds me of the January 17th 1994 ice rain and snow storm...Temperatures started out in the low teens that day not the low 30's...Temps hit 47 that day before the cold air came back with a vengeance...hopefully this storm is not a precursor to the winter storms this year...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I always thought it was the boundary between cold and warm air where storms often form as a result.

That's a front...or possibly extrapolated to imply a quasi-stationary front.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes I know, so what's a gradient pattern then?

Per a review of the quotes you don't know (or didn't know) since you said you thought what was a front was in fact a gradient pattern...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes I know, so what's a gradient pattern then?

I mean I don't have a precise definition...I'm not sure there is one...when the phrase "gradient pattern" is used...the implication is that a *tight* gradient is in fact at hand. The gradient is usually one in which the isotherms are tightly packed and consequently there are sharp differences in temperature over relatively short distances. When it comes to winter weather, this is especially pronounced around the 32 F isotherm, which separates frozen from non frozen precipitation. Moreover, these stark thermal contrasts are usually observed along a general storm track...like one from the Ohio Valley to off the NJ coast...to the north of it, where the winds generally remain northerly, cold air is held in; to the south of this general track, a warm southerly flow will develop as the mid latitude cyclone approaches. If the storm track is unusually persistent and does not vary much during the winter...we could say that the sharp steep gradient pattern is locked in place...as reflected by both temperature and seasonal snowfall...with areas to the north being much colder and snowier than those immediately to the south. 1993-94 & 2003-04 were such winters to some extent in this area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Per a review of the quotes you don't know (or didn't know) since you said you thought what was a front was in fact a gradient pattern...ture 

 

Well gradient also refers to temperature differences just like a front. I originally thought it had to do with a pressure gradient, but it could occur in any season I assume, although more so during winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well gradient also refers to temperature differences just like a front. I originally thought it had to do with a pressure gradient, but it could occur in any season I assume, although more so during winter.

Well of course differences in temperature lead to differences in air pressure which consequently cause air to flow from one place to another...which essentially is the foundation of the entire global circulation.

When isobars are tightly packed...that is, there are very sharp differences in air pressure over short distances, winds are likely to be a good deal stronger than when the gradient is relaxed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well gradient also refers to temperature differences just like a front. I originally thought it had to do with a pressure gradient, but it could occur in any season I assume, although more so during winter.

Since air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are far more likely to vary from north to south during the winter instead of the summer...due of course to vastly different amounts of solar insolation received...the Northern Hemisphere is much, much stormier in the winter than during the summer...when for much of the region...local convective activity (i.e. thunderstorms) & tropical cyclones comprise the bulk of the precipitation budget.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I may be wrong but I think of a gradient pattern to be where there is a strong gradient in height fields as you increase in latitude.  Storms ride that gradient, and depending on what side of the gradient you are on (high or lower heights) will drive whether the storms will be rain or snow makers.  Often the storms are SWFEs that ride the gradient from SW --> NE and the difference in sensible weather can vary greatly over relatively short distances in latitude.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

if it was in January following near record lows we would be getting ice now...This storm reminds me of the January 17th 1994 ice rain and snow storm...Temperatures started out in the low teens that day not the low 30's...Temps hit 47 that day before the cold air came back with a vengeance...hopefully this storm is not a precursor to the winter storms this year...

 

Since we were discussing the theory of how the first week of December dictates the following winter pattern on the last page, can you please post some stats of the Top 20 warmest December 1-7 periods and find out how the rest of those 20 said winters fared in regards to snowfall and temperatures? Thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since we were discussing the theory of how the first week of December dictates the following winter pattern on the last page, can you please post some stats of the Top 20 warmest December 1-7 periods and find out how the rest of those 20 said winters fared in regards to snowfall and temperatures? Thanks.

I did a post on that and I have to find it...Off the top of my head 1951 started out with six or seven days above 60 before it got cold again...1960, 1970 and 1980 all had early 60 degree days...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's kind of disappointing to go back to having virtually nothing to track again for the next 7+ days.

I`m interested to see how fast the trough can come east day 7 and beyond and for how long . As long as there is ridging in Alaska the cold will come into the lower 48 .

The question I had yesterday is it back East with a vengeance day 7 or day 14 .The European Control run and the 6z GFS both bring it East day 7 .

So I will be looking to see if we can get some help on the Atlantic side mid month so maybe sticks  .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since we were discussing the theory of how the first week of December dictates the following winter pattern on the last page, can you please post some stats of the Top 20 warmest December 1-7 periods and find out how the rest of those 20 said winters fared in regards to snowfall and temperatures? Thanks.

found it...

year dates............max...60+....coments...

12/01-07/1912........64....2.....mild snowless winter but had the snowiest Christmas Eve on record...

12/01-08/1932........63....3.....mild but did have above average snowfall and mid December snowstorm...

12/07-13/1946........70....4.....mild until February when it turned cold and snowy into March...

12/01-09/1951........64....6.....Mid month winter storm with snow sleet and rain and cold wave...mild winter with some snow...

12/04-10/1953........63....4.....mild December...Cold and snowy January...Mild after...

12/03-08/1956........67....2.....mild December...Cold and snowy January...seasonable after...

12/03-07/1960........64....2.....very cold December with a blizzard on the 12th...Cold snowy winter...

12/01-06/1962........68....1.....very cold December...some snow on the 11th..very cold winter with little snow...

12/06-11/1966........66....4.....Cold second half of December with a snowstorm Christmas eve...cold snowy winter...

12/01-04/1970........66....2.....cold December with snow and sleet just before Christmas...Cold winter with little snow...

12/06-10/1980........64....2.....cold second half of December with snow just before Christmas...Christmas cold wave...cold with little snow...

12/01-08/1982........72....3.....snow on the 12th...mild but snowy winter...

12/01-08/1998........75....6.....snow just before Christmas otherwise a mild and snowless winter...

12/01-07/2001........71....5.....mild snowless winter...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wonder how many of those mild Week 1 Decembers followed a below normal November, as looks to be the case this year.   Hard to imagine why the first week in December exclusively would have such a strong correlation to the rest of the winter.

It really doesn't..weather doesn't remember.There are plenty of warm first weeks that had blockbuster winters and i really don't think it's going to be that warm next week...maybe close to normal

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It really doesn't..weather doesn't remember.There are plenty of warm first weeks that had blockbuster winters and i really don't think it's going to be that warm next week...maybe close to normal

It definitely doesn't look very mild next week, it doesn't even hit 50F, I agree about it being near normal if not slightly below.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...