Fall 2013 Banter Thread

[uncle W]

1958-59 was a cold winter with all four months Dec-March below average...To bad snowfall was well below average also...I remember a few storms that started as snow but quickly changed to rain after less than an inch of snow accumulated...I remember walking in the slush as a ten year old...13" fell for the season...March had a 6" event around the 12th...1962-63 was a colder winter with not much more snow...Both these winters were very cold with much less snow than average...I doubt we see anything like that this year...

[Hailstorm]

1958-59 was a cold winter with all four months Dec-March below average...To bad snowfall was well below average also...I remember a few storms that started as snow but quickly changed to rain after less than an inch of snow accumulated...I remember walking in the slush as a ten year old...13" fell for the season...March had a 6" event around the 12th...1962-63 was a colder winter with not much more snow...Both these winters were very cold with much less snow than average...I doubt we see anything like that this year...

 

How cold were the antecedent air masses and how long did it take for the temperatures to get above freezing upon the arrival of the 1958-1959 and 1962-1963 storms?

 

The reason I ask is because I would like to know if this current cold spell and upcoming Thanksgiving rainstorm situation foretells our upcoming winter pattern. For example, most of us will bottom out at 20 degrees tonight only to have the temperature soar to 60 degrees or above by Wednesday. So I assume that in some situations, it doesn't matter how cold the antecedent air mass is. You could be below zero 12 hours before the start of the storm but still have the majority of the precipitation be in the form of rain by the time it starts.

 

I wonder if anyone in this forum has ever witnessed this horrific phenomenon, because personally, I think that kind of debacle is even worse than having just a straight-up blowtorch for the entire winter.

[Stormlover74]

How cold were the antecedent air masses and how long did it take for the temperatures to get above freezing upon the arrival of the 1958-1959 and 1962-1963 storms?

The reason I ask is because I would like to know if this current cold spell and upcoming Thanksgiving rainstorm situation foretells our upcoming winter pattern. For example, most of us will bottom out at 20 degrees tonight only to have the temperature soar to 60 degrees or above by Wednesday. So I assume that in some situations, it doesn't matter how cold the antecedent air mass is. You could be below zero 12 hours before the start of the storm but still have the majority of the precipitation be in the form of rain by the time it starts.

I wonder if anyone in this forum has ever witnessed this horrific phenomenon, because personally, I think that kind of debacle is even worse than having just a straight-up blowtorch for the entire winter.

I think its fairly common. For example during the polar express month of January 94 we were -2 and soared to 55 the next day.

[uncle W]

How cold were the antecedent air masses and how long did it take for the temperatures to get above freezing upon the arrival of the 1958-1959 and 1962-1963 storms?

 

The reason I ask is because I would like to know if this current cold spell and upcoming Thanksgiving rainstorm situation foretells our upcoming winter pattern. For example, most of us will bottom out at 20 degrees tonight only to have the temperature soar to 60 degrees or above by Wednesday. So I assume that in some situations, it doesn't matter how cold the antecedent air mass is. You could be below zero 12 hours before the start of the storm but still have the majority of the precipitation be in the form of rain by the time it starts.

 

I wonder if anyone in this forum has ever witnessed this horrific phenomenon, because personally, I think that kind of debacle is even worse than having just a straight-up blowtorch for the entire winter.

the winter of 1887-88 had a few rainstorms between arctic blasts...Then came March 88...Dec. 1958 and 1962 had at least a week of below freezing max temps around mid month...1958 had one 3" snowfall around the 10th while 1962 had a 3" to rain event on the 21st...Even the great cold wave of 1917-18 when NYC got ten days of near or below zero was followed by a rain storm...1968 had one of the coldest periods on record followed by a rain storm...That situation is common...

[coastalplainsnowman]

I am guessing this has already been kicked around, but wanted to raise for discussion.  As recently as early this month, there seemed to be unusually strong conensus not only within this board but also with some of the other big weather sites (TWC, AccuWeather etc.)  that if there was going to be any below normal temps this winter, it would be happening at the tail end of winter.  November and Dec seemed to be mostly believed to be mild.  Seemed like a few days after that we started getting some real cold days (albeit with some very warm ones mixed in), and now we're looking at cold through end of the month (other than brief warmup with tomorrow's storm).  Then looking at the sucker's forecast on Accuweather going into December it seems measureably below normal overall.  Is the outlook for the first half of meteorlogical winter still generally expected to be on the mild side, or is the thinking changing?  

[Momza]

Two sports radio guys were discussing this coming Super Bowl , and quoted a weather prediction they read in this past weekends New York Times.

Anyone here read the piece? And which met they quoted?

Was quite an amusing forecast and irresponsible.

[Stormlover74]

Two sports radio guys were discussing this coming Super Bowl , and quoted a weather prediction they read in this past weekends New York Times.

Anyone here read the piece? And which met they quoted?

Was quite an amusing forecast and irresponsible.

It was probably the farmers almanac

[uofmiami]

Two sports radio guys were discussing this coming Super Bowl , and quoted a weather prediction they read in this past weekends New York Times.

Anyone here read the piece? And which met they quoted?

Was quite an amusing forecast and irresponsible.

Wouldn't be this would it?

 

[Momza]

[quot

e name=uofmiami" post="2493294" timestamp="1385430707]Wouldn't be this would it?

 

IMG_0238.PNG

Probably.......thanks

[Hailstorm]

We need to hope that the first week of December doesn't in fact turn out to be warmer than normal. It it does end up being warmer, that's the kiss of death for the entire winter as Don S. alludes to in his Medium-Range Winter thread.

[NEXtreme]

We need to hope that the first week of December doesn't in fact turn out to be warmer than normal. It it does end up being warmer, that's the kiss of death for the entire winter as Don S. alludes to in his Medium-Range Winter thread.

After the confident calls for a warm November when in the crapper, yes, the first week of December will determine how nearly 4 months of winter will be.

[PB GFI]

The 1st 2 weeks of Dec easily looks above normal , but I wouldn`t gauge the entire winter on it . If you can get some help on the Atlantic side , that trough will be back .

but we may have to wait until the 20th or to do it.

I would love to see Tijuana Mexico colder than NYC for a day as that West coast trough digs as far south 

as I have  seen in a long time .

[supermeh]

The 1st 2 weeks of Dec easily looks above normal , but I wouldn`t gauge the entire winter on it . If you can get some help on the Atlantic side , that trough will be back .

but we may have to wait until the 20th or to do it.

I would love to see Tijuana Mexico colder than NYC for a day as that West coast trough digs as far south

as I have seen in a long time .

Wouldn't say the first two weeks are easily above normal. You have no idea what will happen. Might be a few days. Ensembles are really more normal than anything else.

[PB GFI]

Are you sure ? Because I was about to sell position limits on Dec Nat Gas futures and Gamble my kids college money on

an OPINION....

 

Which I back up by yesterdays 12 and todays 0z  Euro Control and the 0z Ensembles that puts the trough axis in the West .

Now  I dont know what you see , but when I see a deep trough into the California basin thats an above normal

pattern for the East coast and not for a day or 2 , it usually takes a few weeks to propogate EAST .

So yes we are above normal over that 2 week period if the model is right with the trough placement .  

Wouldn't say the first two weeks are easily above normal. You have no idea what will happen. Might be a few days. Ensembles are really more normal than anything else.

[supermeh]

Are you sure ? Because I was about to sell position limits on Dec Nat Gas futures and Gamble my kids college money on

an OPINION....

 

Which I back up by yesterdays 12 and todays 0z  Euro Control and the 0z Ensembles that puts the trough axis in the West .

Now  I dont know what you see , but when I see a deep trough into the California basin thats an above normal

pattern for the East coast and not for a day or 2 , it usually takes a few weeks to propogate EAST .

So yes we are above normal over that 2 week period if the model is right with the trough placement .  

Could care less what you do with your money. The core of the cold will be in the west first, which will probably warm us up a few days and then it starts to move east. We are pretty much normal with a few above normal days for a period.

[PB GFI]

Troughs dont settle onto the west coast and speed  east , its typically a 2 week lag time  to come East The GFS 6- 10  is above normal but its too fast in its 11 to 15 where it cools the east down . I thnk the Euro has the right idea as its warmer in the East the first 15 days of Dec . We can agre to disagree

 

Could care less what you do with your money. The core of the cold will be in the west first, which will probably warm us up a few days and then it starts to move east. We are pretty much normal with a few above normal days for a period.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

After the confident calls for a warm November when in the crapper, yes, the first week of December will determine how nearly 4 months of winter will be.

What? The first week of December determines the rest of winter? Who is teaching you this?

WX/PT

[Snowlover11]

It's just mind blogging that folks cant enjoy a storm without snow, for crying out loud its november first of all, secondly we were never in the cross hairs to get flakes let alone a full snowstorm, be happy we are getting anything after the 3 months of getting nadda.

[MJO812]

The 1st 2 weeks of Dec easily looks above normal , but I wouldn`t gauge the entire winter on it . If you can get some help on the Atlantic side , that trough will be back .

but we may have to wait until the 20th or to do it.

I would love to see Tijuana Mexico colder than NYC for a day as that West coast trough digs as far south 

as I have  seen in a long time .

Easily? The ensembles aren't as warm as the op.

[MJO812]

It's just mind blogging that folks cant enjoy a storm without snow, for crying out loud its november first of all, secondly we were never in the cross hairs to get flakes let alone a full snowstorm, be happy we are getting anything after the 3 months of getting nadda.

A lot of snow weenies including myself

[PB GFI]

Easily? The ensembles aren't as warm as the op.

Euro ensembles and the Control run keep the trough in the West thru the 11 to 15  - I thnk its back in the East after the 20th  

But I dont like the idea that troughs just speed East .

You will get below normal days  But I thnk the first 15 days are above normal  IMO . The trough always come back ANTH - I hope its sooner than later too bro

[SnoSki14]

Temperatures to start December will be above normal for sure, especially the lows and we'll likely have onshore flow so it'll be pretty gloomy for a few days instead of mild and sunshine. It's a disappointing start to meteorological winter after the cold snap we've experienced and Don S. believes this is the pattern we'll be stuck with for most of the winter. A pattern where the cold is locked up in Canada and most of the CONUS ends up mild, though not necessarily a torch because of the -EPO. 

 

The AO/NAO look to be mostly positive going into mid December. We'll probably have several arctic intrusions though because of the cold source region this winter.

[IsentropicLift]

That day 8-9 system remains on the models. Despite a crappy looking - PNA the 12z GGEM today has a wrapped up coastal for December 4th

 

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z Euro also has the coastal at day 7.

[Saturn510]

But its too warm though right?

[IsentropicLift]

But its too warm though right?

Yes

[Brian5671]

Well at least we're getting storms.  That's half the battle.

[gravitylover]

Today was a mixed up mess.  Some graupel overnight then snow grains a few times through the day and then around 2:15 it started snowing and changed to sleet by 2:45 and plain rain by 4 with the temp hovering just a touch below freezing.  Fortunately it hasn't iced up but driving feels sketchy and now that it's dark I would expect it to.

[Guest Pamela]

Half an inch of snow is a good deal more exciting than a late November rainstorm (albeit a pretty potent one)...but that's just me.

[forkyfork]

Half an inch of snow is a good deal more exciting than a late November rainstorm (albeit a pretty potent one)...but that's just me.

pathological