Predict the Date: First Bonafide Nor'Easter of the Season

[jasonli18t]

this is an absurd prediction thread.  snow WHERE?  without specifying that detail, you're not really making a noteworthy prediction.

[Stormlover74]

anybody take october 10th?

[earthlight]

I had 10/6. Shucks.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I had 10/6. Shucks.

 

Very close. :/

[Rtd208]

I had October 12th.

 

 

 

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I had October 12th.

Nearly nailed it.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Nearly nailed it.

It likely will be debatable whether or not this qualifies as a bonafied nor'easter. The low will likely be poorly defined. Intensity most likely a little under what we usually associate with a bonafied nor'easter. We shall see.

WX/PT

[CIK62]

#21  I came close with Oct. 15. 

[SnoSki14]

It likely will be debatable whether or not this qualifies as a bonafied nor'easter. The low will likely be poorly defined. Intensity most likely a little under what we usually associate with a bonafied nor'easter. We shall see.

WX/PT

 

So what would you call it? In my opinion, any system with a long duration of NE winds, rain, and coastal flooding qualifies as a nor'easter despite it being relatively weak. If this was a 12-18 hour ordeal than probably not but 3 or so days of this is pretty impressive. 

 

Nor'easter's don't necessarily have to be sub 1000 ,or to some, sub 990 mbs to be considered strong or at least make an impact.

[Chaser25973]

Come on... slow down by a few days so I get the lollipop!

[Wxoutlooksblog]

So what would you call it? In my opinion, any system with a long duration of NE winds, rain, and coastal flooding qualifies as a nor'easter despite it being relatively weak. If this was a 12-18 hour ordeal than probably not but 3 or so days of this is pretty impressive. 

 

Nor'easter's don't necessarily have to be sub 1000 ,or to some, sub 990 mbs to be considered strong or at least make an impact.

This is for our area, little more than a nuisance off-shore low. I see no evidence of a bonafied nor'easter. Not every low off-shore that generates periods of rain, minor coastal flooding, and northeast winds qualifies as a bonafied nor'easter! In this case, the northeast winds are light across the most of the area. There were a few gusts over 20mph in a few localities.

WX/PT

[forkyfork]

i say this one doesn't count

[Wxoutlooksblog]

i say this one doesn't count

I second that. Typically, the term "nor'easter" defines a powerful storm. Though this system dumped and continues to dump some copius rains on parts of se Pa, Md, De, Va, and southern NJ, it really didn't qualify in terms of the power, coverage, and winds that one would associate with the term.

WX/PT

[Rtd208]

i say this one doesn't count

 

 

I second that. Typically, the term "nor'easter" defines a powerful storm. Though this system dumped and continues to dump some copius rains on parts of se Pa, Md, De, Va, and southern NJ, it really didn't qualify in terms of the power, coverage, and winds that one would associate with the term.

WX/PT

 

I agree, this one is a no go.

[Rjay]

This certainly shouldn't count

[JBG]

This is for our area, little more than a nuisance off-shore low. I see no evidence of a bonafied nor'easter. Not every low off-shore that generates periods of rain, minor coastal flooding, and northeast winds qualifies as a bonafied nor'easter! In this case, the northeast winds are light across the most of the area. There were a few gusts over 20mph in a few localities.

WX/PT

This one didn't count.

[NEG NAO]

Between October 24 - 27 The GFS has been showing this the last few runs and the NAO is coming out of a -2 stage and the PNA is positive

 

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/gfsone-06/ex_allsfc5.html go to hour 288

 

nice cold shot coming down from Canada after the storm

 

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/gfsone-06/ex_all850tmpc.html