Hitman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Easily a foot here in croton. Misting now. Light, but more of a snowy mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 What are the guesses for rd 2 later that is expected? 4-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What are the guesses for rd 2 later that is expected? 4-6? Lots of models show 10"+ additional tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just came in from shoveling.. Snow is pretty fluffy 28f w/ lgt to mod snow 9" new on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What are the guesses for rd 2 later that is expected? 4-6? 4-6" seems about right. Some may get lucky and get 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lots of models show 10"+ additional tonight I saw a map in the philly portal that showed euro precip total over an inch I believe for the remainder of the storm in NJ. Does this seem accurate? If yes...this is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What are the guesses for rd 2 later that is expected? 4-6? If it grows to be a full-blown deformation banding situation, somebody may well pick up an additional foot. Most models imply that and several WFO forecast discussions spell it out. I'm approaching 7" here in Dutchess, around what I expected from the first portion of the storm. Still snowing lightly to moderately, but dendritic growth improved significantly over the past 20 minutes... was dealing with needles for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I saw a map in the philly portal that showed euro precip total over an inch I believe for the remainder of the storm in NJ. Does this seem accurate? If yes...this is insane I have a pretty decent paid app for my phone that has a 6 hr model based sim radar... It shows precip explode over central and northern jersey combining with wrap around band and push north, northeast absolutely crushing the entire lower Hudson valley and northern NYC metro... I'll post a pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 ON A TEMPORARY BASIS...WEAKENING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND THE INFLUX OF A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A DECREASE IN SNOW RATES IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW -- I.E. ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NY AND NRN NJ. A SIMILAR DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES WILL EXTEND NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL ASCENT LINGERING IN THESE AREAS FOR MORE SHALLOW PRECIPITATION GENERATION...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS LIGHT SNOW GRAINS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.01-0.03 INCH/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO LIQUID RAIN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 32F...SIMILAR TO CURRENT CONDITIONS AROUND PARTS OF THE NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST DURING THE EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE NC/VA PIEDMONT AFFECTS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Heavy snow here winds steady at nearly 18 mph much harder than before could be a sign of some pivot and deepening offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 32.5 degrees freezing rain sleet mix. Going out to shovel now. Very interested in what the second half of the storm will bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 I have a pretty decent paid app for my phone that has a 6 hr model based sim radar... It shows precip explode over central and northern jersey combining with wrap around band and push north, northeast absolutely crushing the entire lower Hudson valley and northern NYC metro... I'll post a pic What time are we looking for a possible start time for rd2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If it grows to be a full-blown deformation banding situation, somebody may well pick up an additional foot. Most models imply that and several WFO forecast discussions spell it out. I'm approaching 7" here in Dutchess, around what I expected from the first portion of the storm. Still snowing lightly to moderately, but dendritic growth improved significantly over the past 20 minutes... was dealing with needles for a while. I agree with you. Plus you might see higher ratios on the back end. I think it mostly depends on how stationary the band is. But I would think widespread 6"+ for much of the area regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What time are we looking for a possible start time for rd2 I just checked it again and it now suggest that the dry slot fills back in just after hitting southern orange so it's very possible many north of say Rockland county keep the precip falling but IMO I think the dry slot will hit for an hour or so.. Here's a time lapse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Notice that heavy precip develop in jersey and that all pushing north while at the same time wrap around snows are pushing in for the west.. Very complex storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Is this for real? lol smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Is this for real? lol smh 18-24 for almost all of Ulster county, honestly I'm laughing at it but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Is this for real? lol smh It would line up with what I was saying earlier about the precip exploding over central and north jersey pushing northeast right over the Hudson valley on my sim radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Winds have picked up significantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It would line up with what I was saying earlier about the precip exploding over central and north jersey pushing northeast right over the Hudson valley on my sim radar We've seen it with many storms in the past several years... don't underestimate mesoscale banding, either fronto or deformation. I don't think it's unreasonable that somebody doubles or triples their current total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We've seen it with many storms in the past several years... don't underestimate mesoscale banding, either fronto or deformation. I don't think it's unreasonable that somebody doubles or triples their current total. According to radar echoes I should be dry right now as well and I'm still in steady light snow... Sleet mixing is being reported as far north as orange/Rockland border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 11.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well looks like Upton isn't playing around lol.. They upped again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well looks like Upton isn't playing around lol.. They upped again Wow!! They are really confident about these deformation bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well looks like Upton isn't playing around lol.. They upped again Yea.I got a little over 9 inches in rd 1. this map indicates i should get 9+ tonight. Are they thinking we get nuked tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well looks like Upton isn't playing around lol.. They upped again Dang. Their afternoon AFD will give the village weenie a warm fuzzy feeling as well: ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE TNGT. FIRST CHCS WITH THETAE ADVECTION...SECOND ROUND WITH H5 LOW PASSING OVER THE CWA. WINDS STILL ON TRACK FOR 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS ERN ZONES WITH A 970S LOW NEAR MARTHAS VINEYARD AT 6Z FRI. ISOLD HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN WITH A 60 KT NELY LLJET AT H925. DRY AND WINDY ON FRI WITH GUSTS IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yea.I got a little over 9 inches in rd 1. this map indicates i should get 9+ tonight. Are they thinking we get nuked tonight Short range models like HRRR AND RAP along with the 4k NAM and it's 12z are all in agreement that we see a long duration of deformation banding practically sitting on top of the Hudson valley and points NE.. These models are usually very accurate an they line up well with the euros 00z and 12z today....the best is yet to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Rain and ice pellets for the last hour or so here. This sux... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just got in from plowing- sleet mixed in here for about an hour but now it's really getting windy and going over to all snow again. Hope those maps are right - would put us in the bulls eye. I would say I got somewhere between 10-12 inches so far- hard to say with all the blowing and snow everywhere. But quite a dump in round one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm not liking the way the radar looks south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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