Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Totally agree with both of you. My point was more about the GFS taking that CCB 150 miles east of where it was on its previous run. It just seems a little on the extreme side. But the RGEM shifted east a tad too with that feature at 18z, so maybe it's the start of a trend. Hopefully the Euro stays on our side. The good news is that the Euro had plenty of wiggle-room on the east side of the heaviest banding. The bad news is we're still well over 24 hours from when that band is progged to develop. With this storm, that's enough time for two or three reversals of trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The good news is that the Euro had plenty of wiggle-room on the east side of the heaviest banding. The bad news is we're still well over 24 hours from when that band is progged to develop. With this storm, that's enough time for two or three reversals of trends. Yeah, a shift of 25-35 miles would actually be ideal, assuming the band develops as progged. What's your best guess for the front end stuff? 5-10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/WxBriefing_FB.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Heres a little snippet from LWX.. A COMPARISON OF 12Z/18Z RAOBS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z MODELSAND THEIR 6-H FORECASTS INDICATE THE GFS/NAM WERE TOO FLAT WITH THELOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ANDDOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SATELLITE WATERVAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALREADYCLOSING OVER ERN NE-KS...WHICH WAS EARLIER/FASTER THAN MOST OF THE12Z GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. THESE ERRORS PROVIDE EVIDENCE TOWARD AMORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...CLOSER TO THE PAST FEW RUNSOF THE ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah, a shift of 25-35 miles would actually be ideal, assuming the band develops as progged. What's your best guess for the front end stuff? 5-10"? Sounds right to me. I think most of the large-scale precip will be relatively weak by the time it gets to us as opposed to the immediate burbs. It's probably a race to get as much down from the WAA stuff before the occlusion cuts it off. If we were relying on the front-end snows, I would want to be south of I-84 but we could easily do 6-8" up here in the MHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If I get close to a foot, I will be golden. What a deep snowpack we are going to have! Anything above 12 will be bonus. The snowpack out there already looks so deep and pure....I can't imagine more than doubling it! Snow heaven and a winter wonderland weenie dream come true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sounds right to me. I think most of the large-scale precip will be relatively weak by the time it gets to us as opposed to the immediate burbs. It's probably a race to get as much down from the WAA stuff before the occlusion cuts it off. If we were relying on the front-end snows, I would want to be south of I-84 but we could easily do 6-8" up here in the MHV. I think we do fine with the WAA given the strength and scope of the system, and hints of a more westward track should give us high confidence here in the MHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Very impressive squall line moving through Florida. Several severe thunderstorm warnings, at least one tornado has been reported. Miami and Key West radars are lighting up. Meanwhile, heavy snow in North Carolina, looks like Atlanta from 2 weeks ago. Check out this twitter pic from I-70: Why don't the public authorities ever learn from previous experiences? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hello gents- just got home from a rare day of actually going to the office down in NJ - usually I just work from home, which is a perk of being an IT guy I guess lol Trying to catch up on the latest - sounds like we are looking pretty good, no? The sky has that snowy look and feel to it. Hoping we all get blasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hello gents- just got home from a rare day of actually going to the office down in NJ - usually I just work from home, which is a perk of being an IT guy I guess lol Trying to catch up on the latest - sounds like we are looking pretty good, no? The sky has that snowy look and feel to it. Hoping we all get blasted. Things look very positive for the Hudson Valley. I'm an IT guy also .. since when do we get perks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Things look very positive for the Hudson Valley. I'm an IT guy also .. since when do we get perks? Excellent - good to hear we are looking good up here for once on a big storm. Lol- you're an IT guy too huh? Guess the working from home part and the fact I get 32 vacation days are as good as I can hope for these days in regards to perks. About 15 yrs ago I sold my half of a construction business I was partners in to go check out the corporate world after I got hooked on computers. It's definitely changed a lot - what type of IT work do you do? I'm in the security sector- always interesting stuff going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Excellent - good to hear we are looking good up here for once on a big storm. Lol- you're an IT guy too huh? Guess the working from home part and the fact I get 32 vacation days are as good as I can hope for these days in regards to perks. About 15 yrs ago I sold my half of a construction business I was partners in to go check out the corporate world after I got hooked on computers. It's definitely changed a lot - what type of IT work do you do? I'm in the security sector- always interesting stuff going on. I agree on the storm , normally with a coastal I'm really on the outer fringe so this one has me pumped. Working from home is a nice perk I suppose .. I'll be doing that tomorrow and possibly Friday. I'm in the healthcare IT world for a large medical practice that's in Orange & Sullivan county, pretty exciting to be honest since there is always something new going on. Security seems like a fun spot to be also , wow 32 days huh. I was thinking my 4 weeks was nice heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I agree on the storm , normally with a coastal I'm really on the outer fringe so this one has me pumped. Working from home is a nice perk I suppose .. I'll be doing that tomorrow and possibly Friday. I'm in the healthcare IT world for a large medical practice that's in Orange & Sullivan county, pretty exciting to be honest since there is always something new going on.Oh that's cool that your job is local at least. If I had to commute to my office every day I would hang myself - route 17 all the way to the end - sucks! I'm with a huge healthcare company down there- it's 45000 emp's here in the states and scattered in other countries. They just outsourced a majority of our IT depts. - nature of the beast these days. But I'm in a fortunate spot for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Heres a little snippet from LWX.. A COMPARISON OF 12Z/18Z RAOBS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z MODELS AND THEIR 6-H FORECASTS INDICATE THE GFS/NAM WERE TOO FLAT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND DOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALREADY CLOSING OVER ERN NE-KS...WHICH WAS EARLIER/FASTER THAN MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. THESE ERRORS PROVIDE EVIDENCE TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...CLOSER TO THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF. Nice find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hey folks, Impressive to see how much our little group of N/W junkies has grown over the past year. I think we are all in for a plastering up this way... 12-18"....and one of us jackpots at 24. Good luck all, this looks liek a beast on radar already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hey folks, Impressive to see how much our little group of N/W junkies has grown over the past year. I think we are all in for a plastering up this way... 12-18"....and one of us jackpots at 24. Good luck all, this looks liek a beast on radar already! Good evening Patrick, One of the reasons I moved up here was for these types of storms. We should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hey folks, Impressive to see how much our little group of N/W junkies has grown over the past year. I think we are all in for a plastering up this way... 12-18"....and one of us jackpots at 24. Good luck all, this looks liek a beast on radar already! I got the atv reedy to go- of course I don't quite know where I will put it all with those amounts. But it will be a nice problem to have. I say whoever jackpots has to buy the first round of beers! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hey Matt - Ditto that... if i'm not mistaken this might be the first "true n&w of the big cities" storms since we moved up here! Good luck man, hope you get the jackpot numbers! Loaded up on pellets, beverages, and stuff for the kids to do. Patrick Good evening Patrick, One of the reasons I moved up here was for these types of storms. We should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hey Matt - Ditto that... if i'm not mistaken this might be the first "true n&w of the big cities" storms since we moved up here! Good luck man, hope you get the jackpot numbers! Loaded up on pellets, beverages, and stuff for the kids to do. Patrick Rookies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Rookies Lol- yeah we have had some good ones up here for sure. I still remember several years back when we had about 10 inches on the ground in March and then got hit with about 32 inches here in Monroe - it was epic except for the fact it was march. Would have been nice to keep that kind of snow pack in the dead of winter. Looking forward to this one now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Very impressive squall line moving through Florida. Several severe thunderstorm warnings, at least one tornado has been reported. Miami and Key West radars are lighting up. Meanwhile, heavy snow in North Carolina, looks like Atlanta from 2 weeks ago. Check out this twitter pic from I-70: Why don't the public authorities ever learn from previous experiences? That's what happens down there after a coating to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hey folks, Impressive to see how much our little group of N/W junkies has grown over the past year. I think we are all in for a plastering up this way... 12-18"....and one of us jackpots at 24. Good luck all, this looks liek a beast on radar already! I am soooo lost in finding a forum for this storm. I'm in Litchfield County. NYC forum rarely applies. New England forum rarely applies. I think for this storm, you guys are closest. So here I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I am soooo lost in finding a forum for this storm. I'm in Litchfield County. NYC forum rarely applies. New England forum rarely applies. I think for this storm, you guys are closest. So here I am. Welcome! We have guys from NEPA here so why not NWCT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I am soooo lost in finding a forum for this storm. I'm in Litchfield County. NYC forum rarely applies. New England forum rarely applies. I think for this storm, you guys are closest. So here I am. You'll do real well if the NAM is right. As far as I'm concerned you're just as much a part of this thread's envelope as I am here in Dutchess Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwest NJ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm trying to decide if I should go to bed early so I am up at sunrise to see the heavy snow materialize. I'll probably hang in until around midnight since I'm so excited and probably won't sleep. Some forecasts have mixing and rain all the way up here but I can't see plain rain making it here. Beer/wine store was packed around 8PM - people are hunkering down. I also noticed lines at the gas stations on route 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 0 z nam precip total through hr 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm trying to decide if I should go to bed early so I am up at sunrise to see the heavy snow materialize. I'll probably hang in until around midnight since I'm so excited and probably won't sleep. Some forecasts have mixing and rain all the way up here but I can't see plain rain making it here. Beer/wine store was packed around 8PM - people are hunkering down. I also noticed lines at the gas stations on route 23. if we mix, it would only be 1-2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Damn the 4k NAM just buries us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 any chance of thundersnow back this way? haven't experienced it since i moved up here from tropical nenj... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Damn the 4k NAM just buries us.. Love to see the clown maps when they are out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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