HeinzGuy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Agree with everything you are saying. You guys up there will do great up there and will probably jackpot. You deserve this one after being fringed all year. I wonder if with this thing being so far west now even the Hudson Valley could be in line for the dry slot? If so I wouldn't worry because 7-10+" have already fallen if the NAM is right Edit: looking at the NAM image posted it looks like the dryslot is about to fill in at 30h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 4k NAM remains locked-in: nam4km_ref_neus_11.png Beautiful.I only have the sim radar out to 24 hours. I'm guessing this is a total crush job based on the image from 6z Friday you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 mt holly increases there northern areas to 14-18 also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 mt holly increases there northern areas to 14-18 also OKX bumps up Orange county 14-18. Also, bumped up winds too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Noaa has me in a wintry mix for Thursday now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 TWC has me In 7-11... They are the laughing stock of meteorology lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 4km NAM snow maps show small parts of Putnam and Orange and parts of NJ with well over 2 ft of snow (hard to read the colored graphics on WB, but almost looks close to 30"). Widespread 14-18" or more for everyone in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 U think blizzard warnings will be warranted? Winds have increased as per then 4k too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can you guys see this map or no? Nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The jackpot for this storm will likely be near someone in this subforum...according to the 4k NAM it could be me The CCB looks to hammer this subforum on most models Some of us may mix for a little bit but I don't think we will see anything but snow for the heavy stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can you guys see this map or no? Yeah, I can see it. I think they've been deleting wxbell stuff in the main thread which is why I've been hesitant to post anything, but I don't think any mods ever wander over here. Definitely some 30" spots verbatim, and that's assuming 10:1 ratios—the kind of liquid shown there (2" to 3") would yield pretty unthinkable accumulations in a real dynamic situation. Unfortunately that's probably severely overdone... take 66% and run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Some places are calling for me in northern orange to change to rain lol... I'm convinced rain/snow won't pop above rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, I can see it. I think they've been deleting wxbell stuff in the main thread which is why I've been hesitant to post anything, but I don't think any mods ever wander over here. Definitely some 30" spots verbatim, and that's assuming 10:1 ratios—the kind of liquid shown there (2" to 3") would yield pretty unthinkable accumulations in a real dynamic situation. Unfortunately that's probably severely overdone... take 66% and run? Definitely. At least it seems we can confidently say we're getting a hefty amount of snow as every single model shows us in or near the jackpot zone. I don't think anyone sees 30", but 20-24" is certainly attainable in certain areas. I'm sure we'll all be nervously watching where that death band sets up tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Albany: THU NIGHT...THEIR ARE SEVERAL SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLYFROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF AN INTENSE MESOSCALE SNOWBAND FORMING. THE CSTARRESEARCH DONE WITH THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY HAS SHOWN WITH THESEINTENSE BOMBS THAT MESOSCALE SNOWBANDS CAN FORM ON THE NW SIDE OFTHE H700/500 CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH INTENSE 2-D H850-700 FGEN.EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THAT A NW TO SE CROSS-SECTION THROUGH THECAPITAL REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z IS SHOWING TREMENDOUS UPWARD VERTICALMOTION COINCIDING WITH STEEPLY SLOPED FGEN...BENEATH AN AREA OFNEGATIVE EPV. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A PIVOTING MESOSCALE SNOWBANDBASED ON THE LATEST CSTAR RESEARCH. THE DUAL JET STRUCTURE SETS UPAT NIGHT WITH A SECOND JET STREAK MOVING NEAR NEW ENGLAND...OURAREA WILL BE WEST OF THE UPPER JET AXIS/ LEFT FRONT QUAD/.PCPN EFFICIENCY LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ZONEOF -10C TO -16C OVER THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL MESOSCALE SNOWBAND OR BANDS. SNOW RATES COULD REACH 3" OR SO AN HOUR...IF THISBAND FORMS. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE BAND SETS UP ACROSS THEREGION. THE CAPITAL REGION COULD GET INTO THIS BAND. RIGHTNOW...FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT...AND THE ERNCATSKILLS...SOUTH AND EAST HAVE THE BEST CHC. A LOT COULDCHANGE...SINCE THIS IS 24-30 HRS OUT IN THE FCST. THE LOW DEEPENSTO ABOUT 980 HPA NEAR SE LONG ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT...AND AROUND 975HPA IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z/FRI. IT CLASSIFIES AS A SYNOPTICBOMB WITH THE 24 HPA FALL IN MSLP IN 24 HRS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 TWC has me In 7-11... They are the laughing stock of meteorology lol No self respecting weather weenie ever looks at the weather channel for a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 No self respecting weather weenie ever looks at the weather channel for a forecast. I always check out there app for some comic relief lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 No self respecting weather weenie ever looks at the weather channel for a forecast. Seriously, I think my kids could come up with a better forecast than TWC. I think their forecasts are computer generated, which explains the huge differences in snowfall forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Seriously, I think my kids could come up with a better forecast than TWC. I think their forecasts are computer generated, which explains the huge differences in snowfall forecasts. It has to be since they put out a forecast for literally every zip code the United States lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The weather channel over the past 5 years or so has made a transition to being more of a commercial entity and they have let their better mets leave. Since when is Jim Cantore an expert? I remember the good ole days of John Hope and Paul Kocin. At least I believe they still have Dr. Forbes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 l... Eye candy? Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Point and click forecast for Highland Lakes. onight Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Calm wind becoming northeast 5 to 8 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Northeast wind 10 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 10pm. Low around 23. North wind 13 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Friday A slight chance of snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. West wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday Night A chance of snow showers, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The weather channel over the past 5 years or so has made a transition to being more of a commercial entity and they have let their better mets leave. Since when is Jim Cantore an expert? I remember the good ole days of John Hope and Paul Kocin. At least I believe they still have Dr. Forbes. I follow Dr. Forbes on Facebook, seems like a really nice, down to earth guy. TWC does have Tom Niziol too, who is a fantastic winter weather expert. He was lead forecaster out of the Buffalo NWS office for several years. As far as the GFS goes, I say we toss. I'm not buying that this massive slug of moisture moving directly at us is only producing like 3-6" across the entire region. It goes against every other source of guidance today. We know the "trowal" as they are calling it, is a delicate set-up and likely will come down to nowcasting, but the front end looks like a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I follow Dr. Forbes on Facebook, seems like a really nice, down to earth guy. TWC does have Tom Niziol too, who is a fantastic winter weather expert. He was lead forecaster out of the Buffalo NWS office for several years. As far as the GFS goes, I say we toss. I'm not buying that this massive slug of moisture moving directly at us is only producing like 3-6" across the entire region. It goes against every other source of guidance today. We know the "trowal" as they are calling it, is a delicate set-up and likely will come down to nowcasting, but the front end looks like a slam dunk. The GFS is notorious for pulling this crap. Unless the 00z NAM ends up coming in much different I can't see why I would give the GFS any weight. The Euro ensembles were just as locked in as ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The GFS for KPOU (using the Bufkit) went from 4.2" at 6z to 14.4" at 12z and then down to 3.8" at 18z. Nice consistency there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The GFS for KPOU (using the Bufkit) went from 4.2" at 6z to 14.4" at 12z and then down to 3.8" at 18z. Nice consistency there Gfs was a 3-6" snowfalls less than 24 hrs ago too let's not forget about that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Gfs was a 3-6" snowfalls less than 24 hrs ago too let's not forget about that lol A random blip or GFS seeing something for real that cuts down snow so much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The GFS for KPOU (using the Bufkit) went from 4.2" at 6z to 14.4" at 12z and then down to 3.8" at 18z. Nice consistency there We toss but leave the lid open in case of emergency. It's a lot harder to get an epic storm than it is a moderate one so I'm still not confident enough to completely discount the idea that we miss out on the heavy stuff. The foreign models will surely bring us comfort as they have each night this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We toss but leave the lid open in case of emergency. It's a lot harder to get an epic storm than it is a moderate one so I'm still not confident enough to completely discount the idea that we miss out on the heavy stuff. The foreign models will surely bring us comfort as they have each night this week.Well said, a lot has to fall into perfect place for a big storm. I'm thinking about 12" and anything more is bonus. I've been around long enough to get burned a number of times at the last minute which is why I tend to be conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just posted by the NWS ..I don't want to be one of those weenies but damn I like being under that little dark purple blob in Sullivan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We toss but leave the lid open in case of emergency. It's a lot harder to get an epic storm than it is a moderate one so I'm still not confident enough to completely discount the idea that we miss out on the heavy stuff. The foreign models will surely bring us comfort as they have each night this week. Well said, a lot has to fall into perfect place for a big storm. I'm thinking about 12" and anything more is bonus. I've been around long enough to get burned a number of times at the last minute which is why I tend to be conservative. Totally agree with both of you. My point was more about the GFS taking that CCB 150 miles east of where it was on its previous run. It just seems a little on the extreme side. But the RGEM shifted east a tad too with that feature at 18z, so maybe it's the start of a trend. Hopefully the Euro stays on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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