UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 4-7" deal until you get east of the Thruway/river gfs_apcpn_neus_11.png Gfs is the outlier, ukmet came in closer to nam big hit for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Time for bed.. Have a good night all let's hope the euro holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Emotional roller coaster the past few guidance cycles. Really just would love to see 12"... haven't had a foot from a single storm since October 2011. I thought it was a lock this afternoon but who knows. -3F/-8F at the moment. For a bit of comic relief... saw this on facebook and thought it was funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Emotional roller coaster the past few guidance cycles. Really just would love to see 12"... haven't had a foot from a single storm since October 2011. I thought it was a lock this afternoon but who knows. -3F/-8F at the moment. For a bit of comic relief... saw this on facebook and thought it was funny. keepcalm.jpg That's great! How much did you have from the storm last week? We ended up at 11". Down to 3 degrees here. Just flooded my rink outside and the cracking was intense. Probably should have skipped it tonight, honestly didn't realize it was so cold. I had my best ice of the year (aside from day 1) after flooding the rink on Sunday after the snow. Temperatures must have been perfect that night. Might try and hold out for the Euro. Don't know what to expect at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Emotional roller coaster the past few guidance cycles. Really just would love to see 12"... haven't had a foot from a single storm since October 2011. I thought it was a lock this afternoon but who knows. -3F/-8F at the moment. For a bit of comic relief... saw this on facebook and thought it was funny. keepcalm.jpg Seriously - I don't think I've ever invested so much time following model threads. It's less stressful to go to AC and gamble at the tables lol It's almost better to be oblivious and just wait to see what happens when you think of how much time you can spend hanging on every model run. One minute we can get a foot or more and the next we only get a few inches. Brutal hobby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 4-7" deal until you get east of the Thruway/river gfs_apcpn_neus_11.png Lol...looks like Id get about 4" while literally 10 miles east would probably get a foot. I think many of us in here are hoping the GFS busts badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's great! How much did you have from the storm last week? We ended up at 11". Down to 3 degrees here. Just flooded my rink outside and the cracking was intense. Probably should have skipped it tonight, honestly didn't realize it was so cold. I had my best ice of the year (aside from day 1) after flooding the rink on Sunday after the snow. Temperatures must have been perfect that night. Might try and hold out for the Euro. Don't know what to expect at this point. Heh, I have a pond in my yard that I use for my skating needs. Granted, I only had a few days of good skating weather after shoveling and "resurfacing" (that was quite the task), and even then it was sketchy. Would love to have a legitimate rink. We'll know in just about an hour what the Euro has in store. Couple episodes on Netflix and that should get me there. I clocked in at 9.6" for last week's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Emotional roller coaster the past few guidance cycles. Really just would love to see 12"... haven't had a foot from a single storm since October 2011. I thought it was a lock this afternoon but who knows. -3F/-8F at the moment. For a bit of comic relief... saw this on facebook and thought it was funny. keepcalm.jpg Good one...yes the 12" mark has been a barrier that has been difficult to reach around here also. Hoping we can finally crash through that in the upcoming storm but it will be tough. I wouldn't doubt it though, looking at the RGEM it seems we flip to sleet then back to heavy snow Thursday evening in a deformation band. If that happens look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 arw looks nice for all areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hahaa...yeah the 12" mark has been a barrier that has been difficult to reach around here also. Hoping we can finally crash through that in the upcoming storm but it will be tough. It's a huge, likely sub-985 mb low passing well inside of the 40/70 benchmark in the first two weeks of February. 36 hours before go time, lows will be 0 to -15. You'd think we could buy a decent snowstorm with those initial conditions, wouldn't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's a huge, likely sub-985 mb low passing well inside of the 40/70 benchmark in the first two weeks of February. 36 hours before go time, lows will be 0 to -15. You'd think we could buy a decent snowstorm with those initial conditions, wouldn't you? Im at 7F right now up from a previous low of 4. Possibly going on the third consecutive night of subzero temps. Amazing for February really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 arw looks nice for all areas Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Map? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fhrw-arw%2F00%2Fhrw-arw_eus_048_precip_p48.gif&model=hrw-arw-eus&area=eus¶m=precip_p48&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 0z GGEM has 25-30mm of snow throughout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 0z GGEM has 25-30mm of snow throughout Time to step off the edge until next model runs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 euro holds serve, a tick east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well the Euro says congrats Allentown to Albany. Surface low is about 35 miles east of 12z, but not insignificantly stronger. Snow starts 12z Thursday while the low is over the NC coastal plane. 983 mb low crosses the southern Delmarva and kind of strings out/reforms NE toward the Cape as isentropic precip transitions to ccb dynamics. 6z Friday, a huge band of snow sets up from eastern Pennsylvania through the upper HV. Starts pulling away and weakening 12z on Friday as the 974 mb low nestles into the Gulf of Maine. Wxbell snowmap prints out about a foot for most everybody (even 10" for NYC) with higher amounts as you go toward Sullivan, Passaic, and Pike counties.At least there's still room for continued eastward nudging, if you believe the Euro. Couple more inches on Saturday too it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 euro holds serve, a tick east the pbp from the C PA thread is pretty interesting. Sounds like we still get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 euro holds serve, a tick east The track of the low is almost identical to 12z. QPF and snow maps look almost the same as well (general 10-14" in our area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The track of the low is almost identical to 12z. QPF and snow maps look almost the same as well (general 10-14" in our area). 1.15" of precip all the way back to AVP.. Now thats def encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1.15" of precip all the way back to AVP.. Now thats def encouraging Yup- I would sign up for that. If we can get a foot or so on top of what we have that would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY344 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014NYZ062-PAZ048-130845-/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0003.140213T1200Z-140214T1100Z//O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0003.140213T1200Z-140214T1100Z/SULLIVAN-PIKE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTICELLO...MILFORD344 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM ESTFRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAYTO 6 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...PIKE COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NEW YORK.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE ALSO POSSIBLE.* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. LESS THAN A TENTH OF ANINCH OF ICE.* TIMING...THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...NEAR 30 THURSDAY...FALLING THROUGH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT FROM SNOW COVERED ROADS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVELVERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT[email protected].&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY ... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW ...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS ...ORANGE ...PUTNAM ...ROCKLAND ...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER. * HAZARD TYPES ...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS ...10 TO 14 INCHES. * WINDS ...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES ...IN THE MID 20S. * VISIBILITIES ...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TIMING ...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS ...SNOWFALL WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. IN ADDITION ...HEAVY ...WET SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME WEAK ...FLAT ROOF STRUCTURES TO COLLAPSE AND TREES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FALLING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Currently -6 here in Monroe. Frigid! Looks like game on here in the OC for the storm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Must admit, I really like the 6 GFS. Current temp 2F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good morning all, WSW for me 10-14... Nice wake up surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 very cold morning. Sussex Airport,NJ is at -10 currrently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Models holding well for a big hit for our area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good morning all, WSW for me 10-14... Nice wake up surprise Looks like game on for us. Another cold morning currently at -4.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We could really jackpot up here with some 20"+ amounts is someone gets into that heavy banding.. My guess is whoever is just on the right side of the 850 line will get hit hardest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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