chietanen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Albany going 10-14 for Dutchess and Litchfield. 8-10 for Ulster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 An-I-Mal! said like def leppard. Mt Holly Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
accumulation21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm noticing a 50 mile difference between the NWS snowfall map and almost every other map. NWS showing a sweet spot in eastern Sussex County and Western Passaic (and points north). Most other maps showing the sweet spot over the Poconos and far western Sussex County. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If you believe the RGEM, everybody south of Albany mixes and likely rains. Didn't think we'd have to worry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If you believe the RGEM, everybody south of Albany mixes and likely rains. Didn't think we'd have to worry about that. Would be a devil's move if we went from concerns about too little snow due to being fringed to concerns about too little snow due to mix or rain. Nobody north of White Plains is going to mix.....almost guarantee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Would be a devil's move if we went from concerns about too little snow due to being fringed to concerns about too little snow due to mix or rain. Nobody north of White Plains is going to mix.....almost guarantee it. Rgem doesn't catch on to the kicker at all...no way anyone above Rockland county sees anything but snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think our lives would be so much better if the 6z and 18z model runs didn't exist! It's such a roller coaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Really interesting btw how the Euro was tossed yesterday by the NWS in their model discussion and now all the models are converging on it to some degree or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think our lives would be so much better if the 6z and 18z model runs didn't exist! It's such a roller coaster! 36 hrs away lots if runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is what I posted in the model thread... Don't forget a lot of times models tend to overcorrect themselves when playing catch up then adjust properly in this case a western trend was inevitable...and models may have come too far west... It's also the 18z, I think the 00z will bring it back east a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Don't know if any of you follow Hudson Valley Weather but he just posted their first forecast.. I'm happy with it. http://www.hudsonvalleyweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There is no control In those model threads.. The entire 00z thread so far is arguments about the 18z models what a joke.. Where's the moderators? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Don't know if any of you follow Hudson Valley Weather but he just posted their first forecast.. I'm happy with it. http://www.hudsonvalleyweather.com/ I do follow them fr time to time. I thought that breakdown map of the region was a good idea and pretty dead on for the weather each typically gets. That said, I like that map too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good evening all, Cold night. Current temp is 7F. Looking forward to snowy 0Z runs tonight I hope Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 There is no control In those model threads.. The entire 00z thread so far is arguments about the 18z models what a joke.. Where's the moderators? You know how they roll in that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You know how they roll in that thread. Yea I'm not even going in there anymore... Back to storm however.. There's huge variations in forecasts from the tv mets it's redic... I actually saw a 4-6 for my area from Janice huff on nbc lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How about Bill? Anyone follow him? He posted in here a few times last year. I'll take his map too! http://midhudsonweather.com/Storm_Center.php#Storm_Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Don't know if any of you follow Hudson Valley Weather but he just posted their first forecast.. I'm happy with it. http://www.hudsonvalleyweather.com/ Yikes...that map gives me a headache. The geographic highlights are a nice touch, though. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yikes...that map gives me a headache. The geographic highlights are a nice touch, though. lolYeah, I went cross eyed the first time I saw that map but it really is a good breakdown once you make sense of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yikes...that map gives me a headache. The geographic highlights are a nice touch, though. lol Like I said a day ago, I'm riding the euro till it proves me wrong..that swath of 10-15" will happen and could even be greater depending on exact track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Radar looks awful!!! Huge dry slot!!! Lol little comic relief in anticipation for tomorrow's bridge jumpers lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Like I said a day ago, I'm riding the euro till it proves me wrong..that swath of 10-15" will happen and could even be greater depending on exact track I think I'm speaking objectively (though I can never be sure) when I say I think we see a few 2' reports. We have the front end snows that look to seamlessly transition to heavy wraparound banding, assuming nothing crazy happens and we avoid dryslots/rain. The 4km NAM sim radar paints a pretty picture of what most of the models are suggesting in a big band of heavy snow setting up as the low begins pulling away. It's looking like 18 hours of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think I'm speaking objectively (though I can never be sure) when I say I think we see a few 2' reports. We have the front end snows that look to seamlessly transition to heavy wraparound banding, assuming nothing crazy happens and we avoid dryslots/rain. The 4km NAM sim radar paints a pretty picture of what most of the models are suggesting in a big band of heavy snow setting up as the low begins pulling away. It's looking like 18 hours of precip. nam4km_ref_neus_18.png I totally agree... GGEM shows hour after hour of heavy banding at 1-3" per hr for most Hudson valley... Even heavy snows with wrap around banding.. However I would be cautious of wrap around bands as they often dry out as the storm pulls northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 00z NAM is gonna crush us more amped so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 00z NAM is gonna crush us more amped so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 looking like someone in our area (nw burbs) will jackpot this one . hopefully the models tick ever so slightly to the east so none of us have to worry about a few hrs of mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam came up southeast big time crushing NYC and who woulda guessed the weenies are back out of the woods... Total joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam came up southeast big time crushing NYC and who woulda guessed the weenies are back out of the woods... Total joke But it has the "new data"! A bad model is bad no matter how good its initialization was. Advisory snows north of 84 on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 OC Snowz going crazy in the main model thread lol... Bottomline is the NAM is useless regardless of which hr/run it is. As long as the GGEM/UK/Euro maintain then its all good in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam came up southeast big time crushing NYC and who woulda guessed the weenies are back out of the woods... Total joke That is not a total crush to my eyes for I 95. They flip rain at hour 43. NAM should be best tomorrow at 12 Z. Anyway maybe a slight shift N&W on this run with QPF for this thread. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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