White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I find it hilarious that the weenies in the model thread are now preaching the NAM lol... Literally not a single mention of the euro cause it's not in there favor Very predictable stuff, but yes, you are spot on. Everyone just justifies the model that brings their backyard the most white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I find it hilarious that the weenies in the model thread are now preaching the NAM lol... Literally not a single mention of the euro cause it's not in there favor Some people will just hug whatever model gives them the most snow. Human nature for the snow lover lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not a huge fan of him, but hey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Don't look now, but the Canadian is pure insanity from hour 45 through hour 65. Enormous isentropic thump before a seamless transition to CCB around the backside. Most of CT and Westchester rain for the last several hours, but it's a 2' look for the Wallkill/Hudson valleys, Litchfield, and the Berks. 971 mb low tucked right in south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Don't look now, but the Canadian is pure insanity from hour 45 through hour 65. Enormous isentropic thump before a seamless transition to CCB around the backside. Most of CT and Westchester rain for the last several hours, but it's a 2' look for the Wallkill/Hudson valleys, Litchfield, and the Berks. 971 mb low tucked right in south of LI. Would crush many in the interior. Trends today have been just wonderful. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Don't look now, but the Canadian is pure insanity from hour 45 through hour 65. Enormous isentropic thump before a seamless transition to CCB around the backside. Most of CT and Westchester rain for the last several hours, but it's a 2' look for the Wallkill/Hudson valleys, Litchfield, and the Berks. 971 mb low tucked right in south of LI.I would sign up for that scenario! It's really been something watching the model thread from run to run. Going to be a long 24 hrs ahead as model mayhem continues. Whatever the eventual outcome is, this looks to be quite a dynamic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Don't look now, but the Canadian is pure insanity from hour 45 through hour 65. Enormous isentropic thump before a seamless transition to CCB around the backside. Most of CT and Westchester rain for the last several hours, but it's a 2' look for the Wallkill/Hudson valleys, Litchfield, and the Berks. 971 mb low tucked right in south of LI. Yeah, we certainly are in the jackpot zone for that run. Everyone is saying the Euro will shift east, I don't buy a huge change at this point. It's been pretty consistent and now the GEM has moved towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah, we certainly are in the jackpot zone for that run. Everyone is saying the Euro will shift east, I don't buy a huge change at this point. It's been pretty consistent and now the GEM has moved towards it. Everyone in coastal areas threatening to change over, you'll note. My gut tells me the Euro holds steady or wiggles a bit east, but man, I'd love to see it stay in cahoots with the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Interesting post from a red tagger, let's hope it's still relevant in an hour! phil882, on 11 Feb 2014 - 10:54 AM, said: This... this is looking more and more like a KU snowstorm. Euro ensembles are in very good agreement on this outcome now. I'm going to get on my high horse for a brief moment, but I think the GFS and NAM are doing a horrible job with this event (wednesday and beyond). When I look at models and try to get an assessment of what is going to happen, the first thing I do is look at the ECMWF and its ensembles. When the ECMWF is showing an overamplified solution relative to the rest of the guidance, I stand back and try to understand if its catching on to something the other models are missing or if its an outlier that should be thrown out. The easiest way to figure this is out is to look at the its ensemble mean. Guess what, the ECMWF ensemble mean is pretty much exactly what the deterministic solution is. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is superior to the GFS Ensembles because it contains 50 members and does a more realistic job of depicting the probability PDF of any one particular solution, preventing it from being under dispersive like the GFS ensembles are in most cases. So when there is strong agreement within 72 hours from the ECMWF and the ECMWF ensembles, I place that in the highest regard over all other guidance. Thats what we are seeing currently. The GFS and NAM are completely on the edge of the ECMWF ensemble PDF and therefore should both be considered outliers in this case. Its a little startling to see this must dispersion between the model guidance within 72 hours, but for tricky phasing cases like this, its the norm. While taking a mean might sound like the best course of action, in reality when there is this much spread, you are taking a good forecast and merging with a bad forecast to create a mediocre forecast. I think it would be a better idea to place greater emphasis on the ECMWF solution given the strong support it has by its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM is almost identical to last nights euro... And further west... Absolutely crushes out entire area.. Some could see 18-24" if this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow!!!! Look at the banding even 15 hrs into the event as the storms pulling out almost the whole Hudson valley still in heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro looks a bit further west and more phased through hour 36. I'll edit this same post with updates if anything looks interesting. Edit: 500 mb energy phased earlier and closed off further southwest, so the surface low enters the Chesapeake before occluding and sort of reforming off to the NE. Ultimately landfalls on Martha's Vineyard and crosses the Cape. QPF isn't as impressive due to the early shutoff/lull of thermodynamics. 10:1 snow maps jackpot Animal with 16" over eastern Sussex/western Passaic, over a foot for all of Orange and 10-12" east of the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro looks a bit further west and more phased through hour 36. I'll edit this same post with updates if anything looks interesting. Edit: 500 mb energy phased earlier and closed off further southwest, so the surface low enters the Chesapeake before occluding and sort of reforming off to the NE. Ultimately landfalls on Martha's Vineyard and crosses the Cape. QPF isn't as impressive due to the early shutoff/lull of thermodynamics. 10:1 snow maps jackpot Animal with 16" over eastern Sussex/western Passaic, over a foot for all of Orange and 10-12" east of the river. Thanks for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro looks a bit further west and more phased through hour 36. I'll edit this same post with updates if anything looks interesting. Edit: 500 mb energy phased earlier and closed off further southwest, so the surface low enters the Chesapeake before occluding and sort of reforming off to the NE. Ultimately landfalls on Martha's Vineyard and crosses the Cape. QPF isn't as impressive due to the early shutoff/lull of thermodynamics. 10:1 snow maps jackpot Animal with 16" over eastern Sussex/western Passaic, over a foot for all of Orange and 10-12" east of the river. Can't wait to see some of the euro snow maps. Come to Papa!!! 9-14 seems in reach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hey Matt you think 14 is our upper limit this way? i think you can do a little better but haven't seen snowmaps yet! either way this is coming nw. Can't wait to see some of the euro snow maps. Come to Papa!!! 9-14 seems in reach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hey Matt you think 14 is our upper limit this way? i think you can do a little better but haven't seen snowmaps yet! either way this is coming nw. Looking at the trends today, I would say yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Alright, snowbanks moved back and knocked down somewhat. I think I've made all the room I can I have a feeling the two car width at the bottom is not going to be a two car width by Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That model thread got real quite after the euro came in a bit west lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwest NJ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here is Accuweather's region snowmap from this morning at 11:15. pretty impressive for us in the interior. The Pre-Valentine Snowstorm of 2014 February 11, 2014; 11:12 AMTuesday morning A major winter storm from the Gulf States will be picked up by an energetic upper-air feature (a short wave with cold air aloft (a long wave is the kind that can cover much of a continent, but it often has a number of shorter waves traveling through it)) to develop a storm that strengthens on its way up the East coast. There is still some model wobble on the location of the snow/rain line at the height of the storm. This is a very big deal in a storm like this because in places where snow changes to rain, it can be snowing 1-2 inches an hour before the changeover. If a forecaster misses the timing by 3 hours, that can mean a 3- to 6-inch forecast error on accumulations. This video shows two of the model ideas from last night. The GFS (U.S. model) had taken the storm out to sea 24 hours earlier but has since trended toward the European model idea, which has changed little from run to run. This is a draft of our accumulation forecast from this morning. Note how a shift in the storm path by 50-100 miles will have major consequences in the accumulation department. From a big picture standpoint, any storm that can affect places from Atlanta to Atlantic Canada with snow and ice will cause major disruptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 10-15 inches for mid and lower HV seems a good bet based on latest guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Whats up guys! Awesome trends today for us. Im starting to believe this is our storm. Figured I would stop by and leave some porn um i mean a snowmap for you guys 12z GGEM total snow.. BOOM!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 An early guess would be 10-14" from Sussex, W Passaic, Orange, Putnam, Dutchess, Ulster. If the Euro/GGEM had its way we can see some 18" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Whats up guys! Awesome trends today for us. Im starting to believe this is our storm. Figured I would stop by and leave some porn um i mean a snowmap for you guys 12z GGEM total snow.. BOOM!! Thanks for the porn, ahem....cough....I mean the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY248 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014NYZ057-062-PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072-122000-/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0003.140213T1200Z-140214T1100Z/DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALTON...DELHI...MONTICELLO...TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...MILFORD...HONESDALE248 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHLATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHLATE THURSDAY NIGHT.* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN CATSKILLS, POCONOS REGION ANDWYOMING AND LACKAWANNA VALLEYS.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...7 INCHES OR MORE.* TIMING...THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING* TEMPERATURES...MORNING TEMPERATURES AROUND 20, INCREASING TOAROUND 30 DURING THE DAY.* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED ON THURSDAY INHEAVY SNOW.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT BECAUSE HEAVY SNOW IS APOSSIBILITY...BUT NOT A CERTAINTY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS THEPOTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 INCHES OR MORE. TRAVELCONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS...SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITORTHE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVELIN THE WATCH AREA.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still nothing for Orange County which I'm surprised after the 12z runs no watches are up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still nothing for Orange County which I'm surprised after the 12z runs no watches are up.. Which NWS office does Orange County come under? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Winter Storm Watch just hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WSW just went out very conservative 6-10... TWC says 4-6" for Thursday... Lmao they are the absolute worst idk how they still stay on the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Which NWS office does Orange County come under? Upton/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Mt Holly Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.