IrishRob17 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Valley locations were frigid this morning. I went down the mountain to a deep valley area in Vernon to check the temps on the way to work. Car temp hit negative 7. I'm in a little valley right along the Wallkill River, when I have a decent snowpack I radiate rather well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, I hit -9.2F last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z nam absolutely crushes us... Even the city sees 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z nam absolutely crushes us... Even the city sees 6-12 I thought it would be less north west. Am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I thought it would be less north west. Am I wrong? Not at all... The western precip shield is extended much more on this run.. And that kicker we were all worried about bearing down well after the closed low is hammering us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Went down to -2 this morning, already rebounded nicely to 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 significant shift NW on the precip with 12 Z NAM This is the same model that gave me an inch last night, now gives me 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Was -4 when I took the garbage out this morning at 5:30. Brrrr Today looks like a good day to move the driveway snowbanks back a bit. Then I'm going for a bike ride on the frozen lake at the bottom of my hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM prints out about a quarter inch for Sullivan, Ulster, and the northern half of Dutchess, around .5" for Orange, Putnam and most of interior NJ, and then an inch once you get toward HPN. Not stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We'll see what the GFS and Euro do, but this is certainly an instance where I'd feel much more comfortable either being 30 miles south or east of where I am (Dutchess County). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM prints out about a quarter inch for Sullivan, Ulster, and the northern half of Dutchess, around .5" for Orange, Putnam and most of interior NJ, and then an inch once you get toward HPN. Not stellar. Most of Orange County points east and south are between .75-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I got your 30 miles south right here. Bring beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM prints out about a quarter inch for Sullivan, Ulster, and the northern half of Dutchess, around .5" for Orange, Putnam and most of interior NJ, and then an inch once you get toward HPN. Not stellar. Yeah, looks like .52 for KMGJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM prints out about a quarter inch for Sullivan, Ulster, and the northern half of Dutchess, around .5" for Orange, Putnam and most of interior NJ, and then an inch once you get toward HPN. Not stellar. You numbers are not accurate for NW NJ. We get slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 We'll see what the GFS and Euro do, but this is certainly an instance where I'd feel much more comfortable either being 30 miles south or east of where I am (Dutchess County). Storm still have legs to move NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Storm still have legs to move NW I hope it does ..about 30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm still not budging from the euro solution...not cause it's what I want but because it's been the most steady solution for days.. And if it were up to the nam this year I would have about a 3 foot snow pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm still not budging from the euro solution...not cause it's what I want but because it's been the most steady solution for days.. And if it were up to the nam this year I would have about a 3 foot snow pack My thoughts also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I got your 30 miles south right here. Bring beer Party in Mahopac! Did you guys listen to the radio show last night? I think one of the LI posters called in and was hugging the GFS to DT, Wes, and CoastalWx. Always comical to see people hug the model that gives them the most snow. I don't understand why you have to believe any one particular model is going to be correct. The NWS offices and WPC almost always use a blended forecast. Regardless of what happens, I always find these events fascinating to watch unfold (unless I get totally shafted on snow like 1/2 ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM prints out about a quarter inch for Sullivan, Ulster, and the northern half of Dutchess, around .5" for Orange, Putnam and most of interior NJ, and then an inch once you get toward HPN. Not stellar. Heres a link to the map, http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/f66.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Heres a link to the map, http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/f66.gif I think I feel a little better after looking at that map and those temps .. but still want to see the Euro ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Heres a link to the map, http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/f66.gif The graphic I was using seems either a bit low or hard to read, but either way, that gradient is still brutal. Do you know which text output sites usually come out the quickest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pulled this from the NE forum, sign me up for this please, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pulled this from the NE forum, sign me up for this please, lol Looks like DT's first guess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Analogs putmost of Orange County 12-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like DT's first guess! Not sure how old it is, looks like a blend of the GFS, Euro, and NAM based on title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like DT's first guess! I think those totals are a little too high inland even for the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Analogs putmost of Orange County 12-18" This is our storm. It will turn to a mix in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The graphic I was using seems either a bit low or hard to read, but either way, that gradient is still brutal. Do you know which text output sites usually come out the quickest? I bookmarked these two sites years ago for MBY. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kmgj.txt http://charlie.wxcaster.com/text/GFS/GFS_KMGJ.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I find it hilarious that the weenies in the model thread are now preaching the NAM lol... Literally not a single mention of the euro cause it's not in there favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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