IrishRob17 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm worried about that GL kicker pushing the storm too east, but models as of now do not appear to weighing that too heavy. I wonder what larger influences tick this thing more west into a true coastal hugger. I read somewhere earlier today how that is just coming ashore and hasn't been sampled much so we'll see how that sampling affects the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If the euro showed it further east then guess which model they would ride lol.. I will ride that model to the grave and its consistency lately is noteworthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I already saw a comment in there that the 18z GFS is an eastern outlier... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For anyone to deny the west trend is blind lol.. All models are trending to guess who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For anyone to deny the west trend is blind lol.. All models are trending to guess who? Prior to joining, I lurked on this site for a couple years. I pretty much always followed the New England forum (this sub-forum was not as active in the past as it has been this year) as their interpretation is much more logical, scientific, and not so IMBY-driven. Plus they have mets that post on a regular basis, unlike the NY Metro forum in which mets typically only post during a significant event. The banter in the NE forum can get a little out of hand, but at least it's entertaining banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18Z GFS......let us just hope it does not verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 18Z GFS......let us just hope it does not verify out to lunch. It has the storm near Cuba 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS needs an upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Prior to joining, I lurked on this site for a couple years. I pretty much always followed the New England forum (this sub-forum was not as active in the past as it has been this year) as their interpretation is much more logical, scientific, and not so IMBY-driven. Plus they have mets that post on a regular basis, unlike the NY Metro forum in which mets typically only post during a significant event. The banter in the NE forum can get a little out of hand, but at least it's entertaining banter. Myself along with irishrob, hudsonvalley, and a few others pushed for this thread a few yrs ago cause it was obvious we needed it. It's nice to finally see this thread active on a consistent basis. We have a solid posting core in here now and it continues to grow. Good times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Prior to joining, I lurked on this site for a couple years. I pretty much always followed the New England forum (this sub-forum was not as active in the past as it has been this year) as their interpretation is much more logical, scientific, and not so IMBY-driven. Plus they have mets that post on a regular basis, unlike the NY Metro forum in which mets typically only post during a significant event. The banter in the NE forum can get a little out of hand, but at least it's entertaining banter.I typically lurk over there for the same reasons plus I was born in NH so I have an interest in the weather up there. As for the GFS it's known to do this with storms, being too far SE and then trend west. There's no promise this will happen again and there have been upgrades to it which makes it better so we'll see what happens. Folks love to toss the model that doesn't show their desired outcome. Like White Gorilla said earlier, enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 In think the GFS is extreme but I do worry about the NW side being weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 In think the GFS is extreme but I do worry about the NW side being weak.That's typically an issue with a coastal. Tonight's runs will be interesting ( doesn't everyone say that?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z gfs is out to lunch... lol almost 25 hrs of light precip and way east... Ukie shows a closed 956mb low just inside benchmark... If the ukie was correct we would see 12-18" easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is from NWS Binghamton, but I found it interesting: 245 PM UPDATE...H5 TROF WL BE MVG THRU THE SRN PLAIN AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ACRSTHE NRN GULF BY 18Z WED. LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN TWO DIFFERENTCAMPS WITH NEWD MVMNT OF IMPENDING COASTAL STORM. ALL MODELSINDICATE A GNRLY MVMNT WITH THE SFC LOW FM PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AT00Z THUR TO CAPE COD BY 00Z FRIDAY, SKIRTING THE NC COAST 12ZTHURSDAY. DIFFERENCES REVOLVE ARND HOW FAR WEST THE PCPN CAN WRAPBACK ARND. 12Z GFS AND NAM HOLD ONTO DRY AIR FM THE SFC HIGHLONGER THAN DOES THE EC AND CMC. EC IS ALSO MORE BULLISH WITH H5LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT GOES NEGATIVELY-TILTED WITH DEFORMATIONBAND PROGGED ACRS PORTION OF THE AREA THUR AFTN. INTERESTING TONOTE THAT EURO HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING QUITE A BIT OVR THE PASTSEVERAL RUNS WHILE GFS HAS STAYED THE COURSE WITH A FURTHER EASTTRACK. HWVR, SYSTEM IN QUESTION STILL HAS NOT COME ONSHORE ACRSTHE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND IS NOT YET IN THE UPR AIR NETWORKSO ALL OF THIS CUD CHANGE.AS IT STANDS NOW, HV BLENDED IN THE GMOS WITH THE EURO FOR THEGRIDS, WHICH INDICATES LKLY POPS ACRS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES ONTHURSDAY. FOR NOW, HV CALLED IT SNOW AND WL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TOPIN DOWN PTYPE FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT, WHICH WE ARE NOT EVEN SUREWE WILL RECEIVE YET. I've only been following the last couple days, but has the GFS really been more consistent than the Euro with this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is from NWS Binghamton, but I found it interesting: INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT EURO HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING QUITE A BIT OVR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WHILE GFS HAS STAYED THE COURSE WITH A FURTHER EAST TRACK. Binghamton hijacked by a Long Island weenie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z gfs is out to lunch... lol almost 25 hrs of light precip and way east... Ukie shows a closed 956mb low just inside benchmark... If the ukie was correct we would see 12-18" easily956? Do you have a graphic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Binghamton hijacked by a Long Island weenie? I don't know if you saw it, but I questioned at the bottom of my post the validity of that point as well. I thought I was missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 956? Do you have a graphic? I meant 965mb and yea I gotta figure out how to post it off my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't know if you saw it, but I questioned at the bottom of my post the validity of that point as well. I thought I was missing something. Euro hasn't budged on any runs so this confuses me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z NAM no bueno for many.. Even the coast gets the shaft. lol The Euro better hold serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is a bit of a killjoy. Well under .50" QPF for anybody NW of the city. Guess I'll be waiting up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is a bit of a killjoy. Well under .50" QPF for anybody NW of the city. Guess I'll be waiting up for the Euro. Still out of NAMS range... Especially this year, NAMS been awful, if the nam held it's forcasts I would have about a 80" total so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Funny how the NAM goes from 18 inches to 3 inches in one run for my backyard. Glad I picked up more Ice melt today. I know how this story ends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I find that storm thread hilarious.. They're all saying the gfs will be crowned king after tonight's 00z runs lmao.. What an awful thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah I agree.. The NAM has been all over the place. If the GFS maintains & all others (especially Euro) shift east then we are doomed up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Funny how the NAM goes from 18 inches to 3 inches in one run for my backyard. Glad I picked up more Ice melt today. I know how this story ends... It's 1 run dude, with an out of range model don't jump off the bridge lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's 1 run dude, with an out of range model don't jump off the bridge lol Not jumping off a bridge, no high ones near me. I can roll down a hill in snow to wake me up. I may go troll the nyc thread....convective feedback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM.....SHMAM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm just saying I hate that people are calling this a trend with the nam... It went from 12z east, 18z west, and now 00z east again... By very definition it's the opposite of a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM was pretty meh even for NYC folks. It looks like the NW flank of the precip just erodes when it reaches NJ's latitude. Pretty solid hit for the Mid-Atlantic either way. I'm not putting much stock into it at this point, especially being 57-60 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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