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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - Discussion


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I like what I'm seeing - let's hope the trend is our friend for this one. Will feel much better if this is still the case come this time tomorrow.

It's bizarre reading the main thread and SNE and seeing folks praying for ticks to the east, when we can't afford anything except continued westward trending. I think a civil war is about to break out between the NW burbs and the immediate metro. ;)

 

HPC tosses the Euro but it's hard to go against it and its ensembles when it's been so steadfast.

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It's bizarre reading the main thread and SNE and seeing folks praying for ticks to the east, when we can't afford anything except continued westward trending. I think a civil war is about to break out between the NW burbs and the immediate metro. ;)

HPC tosses the Euro but it's hard to go against it and its ensembles when it's been so steadfast.

I would be in favor of breaking away from them all together.
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Do you know if they had calcium?

And good looking out HV- thanks

May have to take a ride up there myself

They did on friday. I picked up a 50 lb. bag of  magnesium chloride pellets. It was 25.00 + tax. You can check online and call the store. I think they close at pm. Maybe you can have them put one on hold or prepay for one.

 

http://www.truevalue.com/product/Lawn-Garden/Snow-Removal/Ice-Melt/Ice-Melt-8300-Mag-Chloride-50-Lbs/pc/10/c/151/sc/2412/32389.uts

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It's bizarre reading the main thread and SNE and seeing folks praying for ticks to the east, when we can't afford anything except continued westward trending. I think a civil war is about to break out between the NW burbs and the immediate metro. ;)

HPC tosses the Euro but it's hard to go against it and its ensembles when it's been so steadfast.

It is pretty funny - I mean, if you're a snow lover you want it to snow. But it's not like we have any control over what it will end up doing. Funny thing is I used to think I was the only freak who loved snow - it's comforting to know that there are others just as insane lol

It's model mayhem and everyone goes wild !

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The metro. They are all so biased towards the coast that after awhile I have to just walk away to avoid losing my temper.

The metro. They are all so biased towards the coast that after awhile I have to just walk away to avoid losing my temper.

I hear ya. The coastal folks have been spoiled in recent years. Getting hammered each time is almost an expectation. I'm happy for them, but Id like to see us interior folks be in the lollipop zone for a change.

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The metro. They are all so biased towards the coast that after awhile I have to just walk away to avoid losing my temper.

Yeah. I've never seen so many folks harping on the Gulf Stream SST gradient before... presumably because it gives them hope for a further east track than most real progs.

 

One fails to realize how easy it is to grasp for straws and pass it off as objective analysis until you're hoping for something different than someone 50 miles to your SE. It goes both ways.

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The metro. They are all so biased towards the coast that after awhile I have to just walk away to avoid losing my temper.

 

It's certainly interesting that so many posters say things like "it has to trend east" or "the Euro is too far west" and no one says a word, yet one person says the opposite and they riot.  I guess it's why we have this forum.  One thing to note, though, is that even with a shift east, the gradient doesn't seem to be as sharp as initially progged. 

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I'm worried about that GL kicker pushing the storm too east, but models as of now do not appear to weighing that too heavy. I wonder what larger influences tick this thing more west into a true coastal hugger.

I don't see the kicker being strong enough.. Were taking about a closed low inside the benchmark... I would be surprised if that kicker has any real effect other than a sharp cutoff precip shield

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It's bizarre reading the main thread and SNE and seeing folks praying for ticks to the east, when we can't afford anything except continued westward trending. I think a civil war is about to break out between the NW burbs and the immediate metro. ;)

HPC tosses the Euro but it's hard to go against it and its ensembles when it's been so steadfast.

What is this world coming to when the euro and its ensembles get tossed!! Lol. It nailed the last event up here

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What is this world coming to when the euro and its ensembles get tossed!! Lol. It nailed the last event up here

 

 

I really can't see the storm being 100 miles further east.

The euro has been locked on this track for a few runs.

HPC though did not think the euro was correct I may have read, but they have been wrong in the past.

Tough to find a model that does not give us all 6 inches at a minimum. Maybe the GFS.

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Albany's updated AFD:

 

 

THE 12Z/10 ECMWF REMAINS EXTREMELY
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...MAINTAINING A TRACK FURTHER W...WHICH
WOULD HAVE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON MUCH OF EASTERN NYS
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH REGARD TO POSSIBLE SNOWFALL. THE 12Z/10
GFS AND GEFS REMAIN FARTHER S/E...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER N AND W THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE HAS
RISEN SLIGHTLY IN THE OCCURRENCE FOR AT LEAST A MODERATE SNOWFALL
FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...BUT THERE ALSO STILL REMAINS AT LEAST
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD...MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND WOULD NOT BE THE LEAST BIT SURPRISED TO
SEE MODEL TRENDS FARTHER N AND W OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

 

 

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