snywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 True Value in Florida, NY has supplies but are getting low Get some in your own state! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Trend west continues on the 18z NAM.. CCB overhead @ hr75 I like what I'm seeing - let's hope the trend is our friend for this one. Will feel much better if this is still the case come this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I like what I'm seeing - let's hope the trend is our friend for this one. Will feel much better if this is still the case come this time tomorrow. It's bizarre reading the main thread and SNE and seeing folks praying for ticks to the east, when we can't afford anything except continued westward trending. I think a civil war is about to break out between the NW burbs and the immediate metro. HPC tosses the Euro but it's hard to go against it and its ensembles when it's been so steadfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's bizarre reading the main thread and SNE and seeing folks praying for ticks to the east, when we can't afford anything except continued westward trending. I think a civil war is about to break out between the NW burbs and the immediate metro. HPC tosses the Euro but it's hard to go against it and its ensembles when it's been so steadfast. I would be in favor of breaking away from them all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I would be in favor of breaking away from them all together. The models or the metro? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Do you know if they had calcium? And good looking out HV- thanks May have to take a ride up there myself They did on friday. I picked up a 50 lb. bag of magnesium chloride pellets. It was 25.00 + tax. You can check online and call the store. I think they close at pm. Maybe you can have them put one on hold or prepay for one. http://www.truevalue.com/product/Lawn-Garden/Snow-Removal/Ice-Melt/Ice-Melt-8300-Mag-Chloride-50-Lbs/pc/10/c/151/sc/2412/32389.uts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The models or the metro? LolThe metro. They are all so biased towards the coast that after awhile I have to just walk away to avoid losing my temper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's bizarre reading the main thread and SNE and seeing folks praying for ticks to the east, when we can't afford anything except continued westward trending. I think a civil war is about to break out between the NW burbs and the immediate metro. HPC tosses the Euro but it's hard to go against it and its ensembles when it's been so steadfast. It is pretty funny - I mean, if you're a snow lover you want it to snow. But it's not like we have any control over what it will end up doing. Funny thing is I used to think I was the only freak who loved snow - it's comforting to know that there are others just as insane lol It's model mayhem and everyone goes wild ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 They did on friday. I picked up a 50 lb. bag of Calcium pellets. It was 25.00 + tax. You can check online and call the store. I think they close at 5pm. Maybe you can have them put one on hold or prepay for one.Cool - thanks I'm going to give them a buzz now and check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The metro. They are all so biased towards the coast that after awhile I have to just walk away to avoid losing my temper. The metro. They are all so biased towards the coast that after awhile I have to just walk away to avoid losing my temper. I hear ya. The coastal folks have been spoiled in recent years. Getting hammered each time is almost an expectation. I'm happy for them, but Id like to see us interior folks be in the lollipop zone for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Cool - thanks I'm going to give them a buzz now and check it out. Link http://www.truevalue.com/product/Lawn-Garden/Snow-Removal/Ice-Melt/Ice-Melt-8300-Mag-Chloride-50-Lbs/pc/10/c/151/sc/2412/32389.uts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The metro. They are all so biased towards the coast that after awhile I have to just walk away to avoid losing my temper. Yeah. I've never seen so many folks harping on the Gulf Stream SST gradient before... presumably because it gives them hope for a further east track than most real progs. One fails to realize how easy it is to grasp for straws and pass it off as objective analysis until you're hoping for something different than someone 50 miles to your SE. It goes both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The metro. They are all so biased towards the coast that after awhile I have to just walk away to avoid losing my temper. It's certainly interesting that so many posters say things like "it has to trend east" or "the Euro is too far west" and no one says a word, yet one person says the opposite and they riot. I guess it's why we have this forum. One thing to note, though, is that even with a shift east, the gradient doesn't seem to be as sharp as initially progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good news is that even the latest NAM gives us interior folks a good dumping, though nothing epic like further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm really liking the way these models have been pushing further west... Like I posted a week ago we need a coastal hugger inside or at the benchmark where the coast sees a changeover for a big time storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good news is that even the latest NAM gives us interior folks a good dumping, though nothing epic like further south. Still out of range, and it's trending west I wouldn't be surprised if the 00z nam shows it's usual super storm for us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 A safe call right now is 6-12 inches for the mid and lower HV and surroundings if the low takes a BM track. What say? A truly tucked in low inside the BM, and these amounts double. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still out of range, and it's trending west I wouldn't be surprised if the 00z nam shows it's usual super storm for us lol At this point I think it safe to say all in this thread get 6-10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm really liking the way these models have been pushing further west... Like I posted a week ago we need a coastal hugger inside or at the benchmark where the coast sees a changeover for a big time storm NYC thread may go over the edge if the gfs comes west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm worried about that GL kicker pushing the storm too east, but models as of now do not appear to weighing that too heavy. I wonder what larger influences tick this thing more west into a true coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 At this point I think it safe to say all in this thread get 6-10 inches. The weenie in me is very confident with the euro, especially since it hasn't budged in days... And all other models seem to be trending towards its solution however small those trends may be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NYC thread may go over the edge if the gfs comes west. They will still get majorly dumped on even with a late changeover. They will get huge snows no matter what. Prob for us interior folks is we will get huge snows ONLY IF a track inside the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm worried about that GL kicker pushing the storm too east, but models as of now do not appear to weighing that too heavy. I wonder what larger influences tick this thing more west into a true coastal hugger. I don't see the kicker being strong enough.. Were taking about a closed low inside the benchmark... I would be surprised if that kicker has any real effect other than a sharp cutoff precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's bizarre reading the main thread and SNE and seeing folks praying for ticks to the east, when we can't afford anything except continued westward trending. I think a civil war is about to break out between the NW burbs and the immediate metro. HPC tosses the Euro but it's hard to go against it and its ensembles when it's been so steadfast. What is this world coming to when the euro and its ensembles get tossed!! Lol. It nailed the last event up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't see the kicker being strong enough.. Were taking about a closed low inside the benchmark... I would be surprised if that kicker has any real effect other than a sharp cutoff precip shield Hopefully we all stay east of that heavy precip cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What is this world coming to when the euro and its ensembles get tossed!! Lol. It nailed the last event up here An HPC guy lives on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The metro. They are all so biased towards the coast that after awhile I have to just walk away to avoid losing my temper. Bro just post here.. Ur pbp is welcomed here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 An HPC guy lives on the coast Those threads are a joke... They toss what they don't like then claim a bust when the model they tossed was right all along.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 What is this world coming to when the euro and its ensembles get tossed!! Lol. It nailed the last event up here I really can't see the storm being 100 miles further east. The euro has been locked on this track for a few runs. HPC though did not think the euro was correct I may have read, but they have been wrong in the past. Tough to find a model that does not give us all 6 inches at a minimum. Maybe the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Albany's updated AFD: THE 12Z/10 ECMWF REMAINS EXTREMELYCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...MAINTAINING A TRACK FURTHER W...WHICHWOULD HAVE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON MUCH OF EASTERN NYSAND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH REGARD TO POSSIBLE SNOWFALL. THE 12Z/10GFS AND GEFS REMAIN FARTHER S/E...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRENDED A BITFURTHER N AND W THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE HASRISEN SLIGHTLY IN THE OCCURRENCE FOR AT LEAST A MODERATE SNOWFALLFOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...BUT THERE ALSO STILL REMAINS AT LEASTSOME POSSIBILITY FOR A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD...MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVYSNOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND WOULD NOT BE THE LEAST BIT SURPRISED TOSEE MODEL TRENDS FARTHER N AND W OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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