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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - Discussion


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Whats everyones YTD now..

35.6" on the season although I think I may have missed close to an inch when I was in Florida for Christmas week. I have to go through local reports and try to reconstruct some totals.

 

My average is between 35" and 40" so I'm pretty much there already. I don't think KPOU measures snow officially.

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35.6" on the season although I think I may have missed close to an inch when I was in Florida for Christmas week. I have to go through local reports and try to reconstruct some totals.

My average is between 35" and 40" so I'm pretty much there already. I don't think KPOU measures snow officially.

It's amazing how snowfall averages drop off considerably up and down along the Hudson. You won't have to travel too Far East or west to avg 45"+
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For sure. I'm sure it's been discussed at length, but I wonder if it's attributed more to the warmer valley temperatures or downsloping off the Taconics/Highlands.

The Hudson def plays more of a factor then ppl realize. Down sloping & elevations below 200' do not help matters. I've heard somewhere that for every 75' elevation u gain your avg will increase by 1"

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Active weather pattern looks to continue. Little nugget from Mt Holly NWS AFD.

War Drums are being used for mid week

 

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ALONG
THE GULF COAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. AS
USUAL THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW
PRESSURE IN THIS TIME PERIOD. RIGHT NOW THINK THE LAST TWO 12Z 2/6
AND 00Z 2/7 OP EC RUNS HAVE BEEN TO AMPED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THAT
THE TRACK MAY BE A BIT FURTHER EAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF
FROM TODAY. IF THE LOW TRACKS INLAND OUR REGION SNOW IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN FOR THE METROPOLITAN
PHILADELPHIA REGION AND THE SHORE. A TRACK JUST OFFSHORE COULD
RESULT IN MORE SNOWFALL. A TRACK EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE INFLUENCED BY
THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS AND
UKMET WOULD RESULT IN A MISS AND A WARMER THURSDAY. EITHER WAY THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING UP A LOT OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND COULD
PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A TRACK THAT IS JUST OFFSHORE. AND WENT WITH
LOW LIKELY POPS CENTERED ON THURSDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CONTINUING TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE IN
TOWARD THE END OF PERIOD, KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS AROUND.
THE NEXT PUSH OF CAA IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BE DELAYED
TILL THIS NEXT SYSTEM PASSES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER DAY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

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Yeah noticed it earlier .. Upton is extremely bullish for mid week.. All snow pops are 70% 6 days out.. Impressive

 

Funny that the NWS put out all these statements chastising people about the uncertainties in long range weather forecasting then you see something like this.  Just checked Albany and we are at 50%.

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Funny that the NWS put out all these statements chastising people about the uncertainties in long range weather forecasting then you see something like this. Just checked Albany and we are at 50%.

Upton & Mt Holly NWS still discuss a midweek storm, but language used indicated they are not expecting this to be all that bad.

Basically a storm may impact the area. Typical storm that us folks in the burbs can handle.

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This is for Thursday right?  Hope so, boss comes back Wednesday night so I can't miss a day because of weather until Thursday.

 

Anybody know of any groomed xc ski trails in the area other than Fahnestock SP?  They won't let me in there with my fatbike, I need to find a place that will.  Are the snowmobile trails at Stewart worth the trip and are there any on the east side of the river?

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This is for Thursday right?  Hope so, boss comes back Wednesday night so I can't miss a day because of weather until Thursday.

 

Anybody know of any groomed xc ski trails in the area other than Fahnestock SP?  They won't let me in there with my fatbike, I need to find a place that will.  Are the snowmobile trails at Stewart worth the trip and are there any on the east side of the river?

 

Looks like a Wednesday night into Thursday type of deal if I have the timing right. GGEM is quite the show for NYC Metro but a solid event up here as well.

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This is for Thursday right? Hope so, boss comes back Wednesday night so I can't miss a day because of weather until Thursday.

Anybody know of any groomed xc ski trails in the area other than Fahnestock SP? They won't let me in there with my fatbike, I need to find a place that will. Are the snowmobile trails at Stewart worth the trip and are there any on the east side of the river?

I can't say if the Stewart trails are worth it but I can say they appear to be popular based on the number of cars i saw in the lot off of Route 207 yesterday.

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Been really busy with work stuff, how does the midweek storm look for the interior folks?  Quick glance it looks like more of a coastal threat?

Yup, growing consensus on a significant coastal low somewhere around the benchmark, but various mets seem to agree that the incoming low in the Great Lakes will encroach on the NW side of the nor'easter and limit how far up our way the heavy precip gets. Canadian looked like we get in on the heavy stuff but it was a narrow corridor between dry and rain, and the Euro had a decent low close-in, but not a lot of QPF up here. Thinking this might be one of those storms where just to our south and east get good accums and we deal with .25"/hour stuff, but obviously nothing's certain.

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These early comparisons in the NYC Metro forum to 2/25/10 is ridiculous. That storm was def a monster & wrapped up but that storm also made landfall in Suffolk county and continued north into SNE hence the insane R/S line from NW/SE. Im sure most of us would welcome a similar storm with open arms but I don't see the comparison. 

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Update on the event tonight from Mt Holly.

 

 

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-092130-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
231 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

...SNOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...

SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE POCONO AND LEHIGH VALLEY
REGION, AND WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY 4 PM EST. SNOW
FALL RATES WILL BE NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIME, RESULTING IN
VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES, ESPECIALLY IN
ELEVATED TERRAIN.
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