Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My location may be the line between all snow & sleet. I would be surprised that if and when I switch over that people on or near i 84 don't switch over too. Going to be an intersting storm to follow. Morning commute is going to be brutal. With this setup, It seems like the same story over and over. I'd say anywhere 15 miles due north of I-84 gets 3-6" of snow, goes over to sleet at the heaviest and then ends as FRZ drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 With this setup, It seems like the same story over and over. I'd say anywhere 15 miles due north of I-84 gets 3-6" of snow, goes over to sleet at the heaviest and then ends as FRZ drizzle. You mean south? Even the warmer model runs deliver more snow than that north of 84. I personally think we get a heavy thump of snow, a little sleet/freezing rain, then dry slot. As I said, I think we end up in the 6-8" range in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This should come in handy tonight & early tomorrow... Should identify the mix line as it approaches This link should be in everyones bookmarks http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This should come in handy tonight & early tomorrow... Should identify the mix line as it approaches http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12 Have DIX, ENX, and OKX bookmarked on my phone. Great radars IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You mean south? Even the warmer model runs deliver more snow than that north of 84. I personally think we get a heavy thump of snow, a little sleet/freezing rain, then dry slot. As I said, I think we end up in the 6-8" range in my neck of the woods. I think you are in a better spot. I'd agree with you on the 6-8--maybe even 8-12. im right at the NY/CT border near 84. we ALWAYS turn over to sleet right at peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm thinking the majority of the qpf falls as sleet down in this part of Sussex County. Bookened by a couple hours of snow at the start and a couple hours of freezing drizzle at the end. Could end up with 2 - 4" of cement to plow off the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Have DIX, ENX, and OKX bookmarked on my phone. Great radars IMO. Correlation Coefficient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think you are in a better spot. I'd agree with you on the 6-8--maybe even 8-12. im right at the NY/CT border near 84. we ALWAYS turn over to sleet right at peak. Yeah, I could see higher than 8 verify in certain parts of the county, but I live very close to the river, and while this is not elevation dependent, my snowfall totals are almost always low here (vs surrounding areas) regardless of the type of system. Your location is great for the coastal scrapers that give us a flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z NAM for MGJ shows 6-8" followed by some sleet to end Initial warm surge is 0.4c at 725-750mb. It seems pretty shallow and should be overcome with heavier precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Correlation Coefficient? The base reflectivity, but yeah, the correlation coefficient is great for following the sleet line! Hopefully we stay on the right side of it tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah, I could see higher than 8 verify in certain parts of the county, but I live very close to the river, and while this is not elevation dependent, my snowfall totals are almost always low here (vs surrounding areas) regardless of the type of system. Your location is great for the coastal scrapers that give us a flizzard. Yes, many times we have cashed in over the last 10 years. But, recently, we have been just too far north for them, but too south in this type of a set up. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This should come in handy tonight & early tomorrow... Should identify the mix line as it approaches This link should be in everyones bookmarks http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12 Is that what dual-pol is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Is that what dual-pol is? Yes sir.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 More realisitc... Its too bad we taint. Could have been a good one up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The base reflectivity, but yeah, the correlation coefficient is great for following the sleet line! Hopefully we stay on the right side of it tomorrow! Would you mind posting links to those radar sites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NWS Albany have backed off on their snow totals for the mid HV region.. Now 4-6 or 6-8 depending on how far north you are. Looks like Albany will do well. I am still thinking we could over-perform on this and I am sticking with 8-10 for MBY (Rationale - Riding the Euro!)... Will be interesting to see what unfolds for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Would you mind posting links to those radar sites? It's actually the same link snywx posted. On the right hand menu, you can pick the radar sites, and on the left menu you can pick the type of radar. Base reflectivity is obviously most useful, but for following the sleet/transition line, you can use the correlation coefficient. It shows up as a darker line usually. Albany lowered us to 5-10" in the Mid-Hudson valley. Knew that was coming. Seems like a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z RGEM is 6-10 region wide for the Mid HV.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NWS Albany have backed off on their snow totals for the mid HV region.. Now 4-6 or 6-8 depending on how far north you are. Looks like Albany will do well. I am still thinking we could over-perform on this and I am sticking with 8-10 for MBY (Rationale - Riding the Euro!)... Will be interesting to see what unfolds for sure. I just looked at their map and they actually have extreme southern Dutchess at 4-6". I will say that it was nice to see the NAM tick colder at 18z after most of the guidance has trended warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I saw a Wxbell map earlier of the 12z Euro.. It showed 10-11" throughout the area. Its probably factoring sleet as 10:1. Correct me if I'm wrong but sleet is usually 3:1 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Another useful link to have bookmarked.. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Another useful link to have bookmarked.. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# This site is good to keep an eye on the Critical Thicknesses under the winter weather menu..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This site is good to keep an eye on the Critical Thicknesses under the winter weather menu..... Primarily what I use it for.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I just looked at their map and they actually have extreme southern Dutchess at 4-6". I will say that it was nice to see the NAM tick colder at 18z after most of the guidance has trended warmer. I think that's probably low. My point forecast throws me 2-4 tonight and 3-5 tomorrow... even if I do taint in central Dutchess, it'll be after a pretty significant thump of snow for all. 6" is probably a good starting place for most of Putnam and all of Dutchess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think that's probably low. My point forecast throws me 2-4 tonight and 3-5 tomorrow... even if I do taint in central Dutchess, it'll be after a pretty significant thump of snow for all. 6" is probably a good starting place for most of Putnam and all of Dutchess. Yea, I agree, they went from 10-14" to 4-6". I don't think the model changes have been that drastic. Regarding the 12z Euro, it didn't appear as though there was much taint into Dutchess and Ulster to affect accumulation significantly, though I am solely basing that off 850's. I didn't check the soundings, but I guess there was a warm layer somewhere in there, so I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yea they've lowered my totals as well 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I pray.....for once.....just once......that we do not start mixing with sleet earlier than forecasted or not mix at all. Every single storm like this with potential mixing I have seen had sleet mixing earlier than expected, leading to lower snowfall than forecasted. Never seen a storm where mixing occurred as forecasted or later or not at all. That stupid WAA tongue at mid levels always is stronger than expected from my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I pray.....for once.....just once......that we do not start mixing with sleet earlier than forecasted or not mix at all. Every single storm like this with potential mixing I have seen had sleet mixing earlier than expected, leading to lower snowfall than forecasted. Never seen a storm where mixing occurred as forecasted or later or not at all. That stupid WAA tongue at mid levels always is stronger than expected from my experience. That same WAA tongue you speak of is driving the precip. Its a love/hate relationship lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 That same WAA tongue you speak of is driving the precip. Its a love/hate relationship lol I know.....baby and bath water....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I've busted low with every "major" storm to date this year so I'm not expecting much more than 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.