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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - Discussion


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My location may be the line between all snow & sleet.

I would be surprised that if and when I switch over that people on or near i 84 don't switch over too.

Going to be an intersting storm to follow.

Morning commute is going to be brutal.

With this setup, It seems like the same story over and over.  I'd say anywhere 15 miles due north of I-84 gets 3-6" of snow, goes over to sleet at the heaviest and then ends as FRZ drizzle. 

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With this setup, It seems like the same story over and over.  I'd say anywhere 15 miles due north of I-84 gets 3-6" of snow, goes over to sleet at the heaviest and then ends as FRZ drizzle. 

 

You mean south?  Even the warmer model runs deliver more snow than that north of 84.  I personally think we get a heavy thump of snow, a little sleet/freezing rain, then dry slot.  As I said, I think we end up in the 6-8" range in my neck of the woods.

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You mean south?  Even the warmer model runs deliver more snow than that north of 84.  I personally think we get a heavy thump of snow, a little sleet/freezing rain, then dry slot.  As I said, I think we end up in the 6-8" range in my neck of the woods.

I think you are in a better spot.  I'd agree with you on the 6-8--maybe even 8-12.  im right at the NY/CT border near 84.  we ALWAYS turn over to sleet right at peak.

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I think you are in a better spot.  I'd agree with you on the 6-8--maybe even 8-12.  im right at the NY/CT border near 84.  we ALWAYS turn over to sleet right at peak.

 

Yeah, I could see higher than 8 verify in certain parts of the county, but I live very close to the river, and while this is not elevation dependent, my snowfall totals are almost always low here (vs surrounding areas) regardless of the type of system. 

 

Your location is great for the coastal scrapers that give us a flizzard.

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Yeah, I could see higher than 8 verify in certain parts of the county, but I live very close to the river, and while this is not elevation dependent, my snowfall totals are almost always low here (vs surrounding areas) regardless of the type of system. 

 

Your location is great for the coastal scrapers that give us a flizzard.

Yes, many times we have cashed in over the last 10 years. But, recently, we have been just too far north for them, but too south in this type of a set up.  lol.

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NWS Albany have backed off on their snow totals for the mid HV region.. Now 4-6 or 6-8 depending on how far north you are.   Looks like Albany will do well.

I am still thinking we could over-perform on this and I am sticking with 8-10 for MBY (Rationale - Riding the Euro!)... Will be interesting to see what unfolds for sure.

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Would you mind posting links to those radar sites?

 

It's actually the same link snywx posted.  On the right hand menu, you can pick the radar sites, and on the left menu you can pick the type of radar.  Base reflectivity is obviously most useful, but for following the sleet/transition line, you can use the correlation coefficient.  It shows up as a darker line usually.

 

Albany lowered us to 5-10" in the Mid-Hudson valley.  Knew that was coming.  Seems like a good call.

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NWS Albany have backed off on their snow totals for the mid HV region.. Now 4-6 or 6-8 depending on how far north you are.   Looks like Albany will do well.

I am still thinking we could over-perform on this and I am sticking with 8-10 for MBY (Rationale - Riding the Euro!)... Will be interesting to see what unfolds for sure.

 

 I just looked at their map and they actually have extreme southern Dutchess at 4-6".  I will say that it was nice to see the NAM tick colder at 18z after most of the guidance has trended warmer.

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 I just looked at their map and they actually have extreme southern Dutchess at 4-6".  I will say that it was nice to see the NAM tick colder at 18z after most of the guidance has trended warmer.

I think that's probably low. My point forecast throws me 2-4 tonight and 3-5 tomorrow... even if I do taint in central Dutchess, it'll be after a pretty significant thump of snow for all. 6" is probably a good starting place for most of Putnam and all of Dutchess.

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I think that's probably low. My point forecast throws me 2-4 tonight and 3-5 tomorrow... even if I do taint in central Dutchess, it'll be after a pretty significant thump of snow for all. 6" is probably a good starting place for most of Putnam and all of Dutchess.

 

Yea, I agree, they went from 10-14" to 4-6".  I don't think the model changes have been that drastic.  Regarding the 12z Euro, it didn't appear as though there was much taint into Dutchess and Ulster to affect accumulation significantly, though I am solely basing that off 850's.  I didn't check the soundings, but I guess there was a warm layer somewhere in there, so I could be wrong.

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I pray.....for once.....just once......that we do not start mixing with sleet earlier than forecasted or not mix at all. Every single storm like this with potential mixing I have seen had sleet mixing earlier than expected, leading to lower snowfall than forecasted. Never seen a storm where mixing occurred as forecasted or later or not at all. That stupid WAA tongue at mid levels always is stronger than expected from my experience.

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I pray.....for once.....just once......that we do not start mixing with sleet earlier than forecasted or not mix at all. Every single storm like this with potential mixing I have seen had sleet mixing earlier than expected, leading to lower snowfall than forecasted. Never seen a storm where mixing occurred as forecasted or later or not at all. That stupid WAA tongue at mid levels always is stronger than expected from my experience.

 

That same WAA tongue you speak of is driving the precip. Its a love/hate relationship lol

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