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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - Discussion


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It seems like the NAM might have issues by comments in the NYC 4th-6th storm thread and comments from the WPC.

 

When does the NAM not have issues? :whistle:   Though it does seem like it's having a halfway decent winter, at least compared to last year.  I certainly don't see our area staying all snow, but I think we are probably something like 80-90% snow.

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Yes, we get a very good thump regardless, but that changeover really screws us from the bigger totals. This could have easily been a 10-12 inch event if it would remain all snow.

I think your location and depending upon elevation you should be good for around a foot of snow and not much changeover, maybe a little sleet.

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After seeing the 12ZNAM, this is going to suck in my back yard.

thump of snow over to sleet and possibly freezing rain.

Solid Ice Storm.

I just do't see the higher snow total coming to life in my backyard.

 

Best

I think this area gets saved by sleet eating up some of the QPF. That doesn't mean no ZR, but it might be the difference between moderate and severe icing.

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The 4km NAM looks ugly.  Heavy sleet storm here with major icing to the south.  I never saw this as a 10-14" storm as the NWS is predicting, but at this point, I wonder if we even have trouble getting to 6" here.  I hate sleet more than anything.  I'd honestly prefer rain over sleet.  We'll see what the GFS does soon.

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The 4km NAM looks ugly.  Heavy sleet storm here with major icing to the south.  I never saw this as a 10-14" storm as the NWS is predicting, but at this point, I wonder if we even have trouble getting to 6" here.  I hate sleet more than anything.  I'd honestly prefer rain over sleet.  We'll see what the GFS does soon.

 

 

It looked favorable until yesterday morning for a mostly snow event. NAM lead the way with the warm mid layers.

I would much rather have sleet instead of freezing rain. Got to hope the front end thump is decent.

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talk about riding the line.. I think I-84 and north is on the cusp of staying all snow but any small tweak/shift in the thermal profiles is going to allow for some taint.. I think there will be taint for the mid-hudson valley, but not before a solid 8-10.. Hopefully we dry slot by then anyway.. It's going to be interesting to unfold... The mid HV tends to do well with these exact set ups so  I think  this will be our biggest snowfall of the season so far. 

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talk about riding the line.. I think I-84 and north is on the cusp of staying all snow but any small tweak/shift in the thermal profiles is going to allow for some taint.. I think there will be taint for the mid-hudson valley, but not before a solid 8-10.. Hopefully we dry slot by then anyway.. It's going to be interesting to unfold... The mid HV tends to do well with these exact set ups so  I think  this will be our biggest snowfall of the season so far. 

 

I think we get 6-8" then taint, but it's going to be close.  Things are certainly trending warmer.  It all depends on how quick and heavy the snow comes in.  The December storm was great, that hit like a wall and got us a solid 7-8", and this system seems to have more moisture to work with.

 

DT's "first guess"

 

https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/-first-guess-feb-5-6-ice-storm-threat-high-for-some/642966822417246

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Wow, DT really expecting taint all the way to the pike.   Tough forecast.

 

Saw in the NE forum that the NWS Boston tweeted that the 12z NAM initialized too warm due to convective feedback, which is pretty typical of the NAM.  I guess it's going to come down to nowcasting to see how much snow vs sleet/freezing rain that we get.  Our friends in Albany look to do quite well from this storm.  They had a pretty lean January with snow from what I recall.

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It could not have been more perfectly timed.. I fly to Denver and then on to San Diego on Sunday.. Planned this over a month ago and in the back of my head, I thought to myself 'I bet there will be a snow storm in the NE precisely when I leave the region the ONE TIME this entire winter' :)

What would you do if in two days from now, guidance shows a monster?  Cancel the trip? :axe:

 

I really would be sick in the head to want to see a snowstorm vs. enjoy 60s and sunshine in San Diego, but it is crossing my mind!

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It could not have been more perfectly timed.. I fly to Denver and then on to San Diego on Sunday.. Planned this over a month ago and in the back of my head, I thought to myself 'I bet there will be a snow storm in the NE precisely when I leave the region the ONE TIME this entire winter' :)

What would you do if in two days from now, guidance shows a monster?  Cancel the trip? :axe:

 

I really would be sick in the head to want to see a snowstorm vs. enjoy 60s and sunshine in San Diego, but it is crossing my mind!

If you cancel that trip and ruin that storm for the rest of us you'll never hear the end of it LOL.

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If you cancel that trip and ruin that storm for the rest of us you'll never hear the end of it LOL.

LOL I have until Thursday night to make up my mind.....Hopefully we will have a good handle on it by then.

 

Back to more the immediate task at hand...GEFS 12Z still looks like a decent thump before we taint. I think it is pretty much locked in now..

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