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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - Discussion


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Finished up with 3.5 here. It is amazing in New Windsor it's self, you can have lower totals here on the east side by the river and out on the west side by Rock Tavern, make out a little better most of the time. Then go a couple miles south to storm king and be a different world up there with the higher elevations. Much fun ahead in the next 6 days. :snowman:

True on all counts Brother. People don't realize how far west the Town of New Windsor goes.

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RGEM/GGEM both give 10-12" to the area.. I believe the Euro is just as snowy. 

 

Its the GFS/NAM combo that gives the region 6-9"

 

Just checked the Euro snow maps on WB and they do indeed give 10-11" in our general area.  Our favorite short term model, the SREF, has a mean of close to 8" in Poughkeepsie (it had been over 10" on prior runs today).

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PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
456 PM EST MON FEB 03 2014

VALID 00Z TUE FEB 04 2014 - 00Z FRI FEB 07 2014

 

 

..MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND...

THE WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BROADENS/SHEARS SOME INTO
A CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER...A POWERFUL UPPER JET WITH
COUPLED DIVERGENT MAXIMA ALOFT AND INTENSE WARM/MOIST TRANSPORT
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION AND BACK INTO THE
COLD AIR WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW FROM NERN OHIO
INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW YORK INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. WHILE STILL A DAY
2 FORECAST...THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO PLACE AN AXIS FOR A HEAVY
FRONTOGENETIC SNOW BAND SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING
EASTWARD...MOST NOTED IN THE 12Z NAM. HOWEVER...THE NAM APPEARED
TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND 850-700 MB FRONTS
GIVEN STRONGER CONSENSUS TO BE SOUTH...ROUGHLY 50 MILES SOUTH OF
THE NAM. THIS CHANGES SOMEWHAT BY THE TIME THE STORM REACHES NEW
ENGLAND HOWEVER...WITH THE GEFS MEAN NORTH OF THE GFS WITH ITS
HEAVY QPF AXIS...WHILE THE ECMWF AGREES WITH THE GEFS/EC MEAN AND
OTHER NON-NCEP GUIDANCE. STILL..THE NAM APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH WITH
THE INITIAL LOW WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO REDEVELOP OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. GIVEN OUTPUT
IN THE SREF MEAN OF 10-12 INCHES OVER NEW YORK AND QPF HEAVY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 12+ INCHES FROM THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE...FEEL CONFIDENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOOT+ TOTALS ACROSS
A SIZABLE PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TO THE
SOUTH...INITIALLY SUB-FREEZING TEMPS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
SHOULD SUPPORT THE INITIAL P-TYPE AS SNOW/ICE. HOWEVER...STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ALLOW A TRANSITION TO
PL/FZRA MIX AND THEN RAIN. POCKETS OF COLDER AIR NEAR THE
APPALACHIANS MAY BE HARDER TO SCOUR OUT WHERE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
OF 0.25 INCHES ICE ARE FORECAST. SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE COAST AND A TRACK JUST INSIDE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SHOULD
KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS AS MOSTLY WET...BUT A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW ON THE TAIL END OF THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION SHIELD

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I think 5 to 7 inches is still possible. Thenwe get cement with sleet and freezing rain, which sucks.

Granted if you live 50 to 75 miles north you may get a decent snow storm.

 

Yes, we get a very good thump regardless, but that changeover really screws us from the bigger totals. This could have easily been a 10-12 inch event if it would remain all snow.

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The northward trends do certainly could hurt some of you guys in the forum.  Up here, the NAM actually had the same amount of snow/ice pellets as it's previous run.  The GFS looks warmer, though the WB maps actually give a little more snow accumulation than 18z.  Interestingly, those same maps flip us to freezing rain on this run with no sleet at all.  The RGEM maintains a west to east stripe of 9-12" across Sullivan, Ulster, and Dutchess counties, but we are riding the line.  I would wait and see what the Euro does before worrying about too much taint.  

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The northward trends do certainly could hurt some of you guys in the forum. Up here, the NAM actually had the same amount of snow/ice pellets as it's previous run. The GFS looks warmer, though the WB maps actually give a little more snow accumulation than 18z. Interestingly, those same maps flip us to freezing rain on this run with no sleet at all. The RGEM maintains a west to east stripe of 9-12" across Sullivan, Ulster, and Dutchess counties, but we are riding the line. I would wait and see what the Euro does before worrying about too much taint.

Not worried lol. I worried watching the stock market crash the past month.

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good morning fans,

 

6 ZNAM/GFS still looks warm for my backyard to the i 84 area around hr 33

Warning hoisted for 6-10 or 8-12 on your location.

My call for my back yard. 7 inches of snow to sleet ending as freezing rain.

Rd 3 in the pipes. 6 Z GFS looked interesting.

 

Current temp 12F

Always a tricky forecast when a change from snow to sleet / freezing rain is in the forecast. This will definitely be a scenario where the further north and NW you are the more snow you will get. I suspect NNJ (~I-80 north will be in the 4-8" range followed by a period of sleet and probably a little bit of freezing rain too. Far NW NJ should do a little better with snow so 6-10" with High Point making a run at 12". Interior SE NY similar to NNJ / NW NJ though once north of I-84 it looks like mainly snow with just a little bit of sleet thus 8-12" locally up to 14". I am still excited for Sunday / Monday despite a bit of waffling on some of the overnight data. That is to be expected. Far from a certainty but confidence is above average at this range.  

 

Temp this morning at 4:15am when I left for work was 8. Last I saw Andover was at 2.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
348 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-050900-
/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0002.140205T0500Z-140206T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0002.140205T0300Z-140206T0000Z/
YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-
CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-
SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PENN YAN...SENECA FALLS...AUBURN...
CORNING...HORNELL...WATKINS GLEN...ELMIRA...ITHACA...CORTLAND...
NORWICH...ONEONTA...COOPERSTOWN...OWEGO...BINGHAMTON...WALTON...
DELHI...MONTICELLO...TOWANDA...SAYRE...MONTROSE...TUNKHANNOCK
348 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE TWIN TIERS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...AND PORTIONS OF
THE FINGER LAKES REGION.

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...STEADY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 3
AND 11 AM...WHEN SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
AT TIMES. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL ON
WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

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