IrishRob17 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Finished up with 3.5 here. It is amazing in New Windsor it's self, you can have lower totals here on the east side by the river and out on the west side by Rock Tavern, make out a little better most of the time. Then go a couple miles south to storm king and be a different world up there with the higher elevations. Much fun ahead in the next 6 days. True on all counts Brother. People don't realize how far west the Town of New Windsor goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 6.9 final Highland Lakes. Rd 2 at the door step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 according to Mt Holly NWS. Pending storm should be all snow from a line running Reading, PA - Allentown,PA - Andover, NJ. Looks as if a dump of 8-12 seems reasonable. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Somehow got 3-4 inches up here from this. Storm way overperformed my expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 True on all counts Brother. People don't realize how far west the Town of New Windsor goes. I live by Stewart and finished with just under 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just got back in from plowing myself and several neighbors out- we did well down here in the southern end of the county- about 5.5 from a couple of measurements I took. Last couple of hours of the storm was nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Boom! Seems to match up pretty well with ALB. I still don't see how we get totals that high on the currently modeled qpf. But I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 After a final shovel and wander with a ruler it looks like 6" is the call not my estimate from earlier. Nice snow with a good texture and not quite wet enough to make a snowball makes this my favorite storm so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Seems to match up pretty well with ALB. I still don't see how we get totals that high on the currently modeled qpf. But I'll take it! RGEM/GGEM both give 10-12" to the area.. I believe the Euro is just as snowy. Its the GFS/NAM combo that gives the region 6-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM/GGEM both give 10-12" to the area.. I believe the Euro is just as snowy. Its the GFS/NAM combo that gives the region 6-9" Just checked the Euro snow maps on WB and they do indeed give 10-11" in our general area. Our favorite short term model, the SREF, has a mean of close to 8" in Poughkeepsie (it had been over 10" on prior runs today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just checked the Euro snow maps on WB and they do indeed give 10-11" in our general area. Our favorite short term model, the SREF, has a mean of close to 8" in Poughkeepsie (it had been over 10" on prior runs today). Im still waiting for my 15" it wanted to give me with that Jan storm lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hi-res NAM looks gorgeous. Gives Sullivan, Orange, Ulster, and Dutchess 9-12"+. Totals are a little less in the lower HV and NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Im still waiting for my 15" it wanted to give me with that Jan storm lol... Yeah, it owes me at least 2 ft of snow! If it busts low, I will take one strike away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hi-res NAM looks gorgeous. Gives Sullivan, Orange, Ulster, and Dutchess 9-12"+. Totals are a little less in the lower HV and NNJ. Still at work... Can you post an image of the Hi-res NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hi-res NAM looks gorgeous. Gives Sullivan, Orange, Ulster, and Dutchess 9-12"+. Totals are a little less in the lower HV and NNJ. I would be happy with this. Don't need the ZR that the folks to our south might have to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD456 PM EST MON FEB 03 2014VALID 00Z TUE FEB 04 2014 - 00Z FRI FEB 07 2014 ..MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND...THE WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD TUE NIGHT INTOWEDNESDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BROADENS/SHEARS SOME INTOA CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER...A POWERFUL UPPER JET WITHCOUPLED DIVERGENT MAXIMA ALOFT AND INTENSE WARM/MOIST TRANSPORTFROM THE SOUTH WILL BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OFTHIS MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION AND BACK INTO THECOLD AIR WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW FROM NERN OHIOINTO CNTRL/SRN NEW YORK INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. WHILE STILL A DAY2 FORECAST...THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO PLACE AN AXIS FOR A HEAVYFRONTOGENETIC SNOW BAND SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY EXTENDINGEASTWARD...MOST NOTED IN THE 12Z NAM. HOWEVER...THE NAM APPEAREDTO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS SURFACE LOW AND 850-700 MB FRONTSGIVEN STRONGER CONSENSUS TO BE SOUTH...ROUGHLY 50 MILES SOUTH OFTHE NAM. THIS CHANGES SOMEWHAT BY THE TIME THE STORM REACHES NEWENGLAND HOWEVER...WITH THE GEFS MEAN NORTH OF THE GFS WITH ITSHEAVY QPF AXIS...WHILE THE ECMWF AGREES WITH THE GEFS/EC MEAN ANDOTHER NON-NCEP GUIDANCE. STILL..THE NAM APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH WITHTHE INITIAL LOW WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND SECONDARY SURFACE LOWFORECAST TO REDEVELOP OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. GIVEN OUTPUTIN THE SREF MEAN OF 10-12 INCHES OVER NEW YORK AND QPF HEAVYENOUGH TO SUPPORT 12+ INCHES FROM THE DETERMINISTICGUIDANCE...FEEL CONFIDENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOOT+ TOTALS ACROSSA SIZABLE PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. TO THESOUTH...INITIALLY SUB-FREEZING TEMPS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANSSHOULD SUPPORT THE INITIAL P-TYPE AS SNOW/ICE. HOWEVER...STRONGSOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ALLOW A TRANSITION TOPL/FZRA MIX AND THEN RAIN. POCKETS OF COLDER AIR NEAR THEAPPALACHIANS MAY BE HARDER TO SCOUR OUT WHERE HIGHER PROBABILITIESOF 0.25 INCHES ICE ARE FORECAST. SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT NEARTHE COAST AND A TRACK JUST INSIDE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SHOULDKEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS AS MOSTLY WET...BUT A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TOSNOW ON THE TAIL END OF THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION SHIELD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Gfs and nam look like a thump of snow over to sleet and freezing rain. Overall the trends look warmer. The idea of an all snow event seem to be losing ground unless you are up north a good ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nam,Gfs, Rgem have all trended much warmer tonight. Not a very good trend to see this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nam,Gfs, Rgem have all trended much warmer tonight. Not a very good trend to see this evening. I think 5 to 7 inches is still possible. Thenwe get cement with sleet and freezing rain, which sucks. Granted if you live 50 to 75 miles north you may get a decent snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think 5 to 7 inches is still possible. Thenwe get cement with sleet and freezing rain, which sucks. Granted if you live 50 to 75 miles north you may get a decent snow storm. Yes, we get a very good thump regardless, but that changeover really screws us from the bigger totals. This could have easily been a 10-12 inch event if it would remain all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The northward trends do certainly could hurt some of you guys in the forum. Up here, the NAM actually had the same amount of snow/ice pellets as it's previous run. The GFS looks warmer, though the WB maps actually give a little more snow accumulation than 18z. Interestingly, those same maps flip us to freezing rain on this run with no sleet at all. The RGEM maintains a west to east stripe of 9-12" across Sullivan, Ulster, and Dutchess counties, but we are riding the line. I would wait and see what the Euro does before worrying about too much taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 The northward trends do certainly could hurt some of you guys in the forum. Up here, the NAM actually had the same amount of snow/ice pellets as it's previous run. The GFS looks warmer, though the WB maps actually give a little more snow accumulation than 18z. Interestingly, those same maps flip us to freezing rain on this run with no sleet at all. The RGEM maintains a west to east stripe of 9-12" across Sullivan, Ulster, and Dutchess counties, but we are riding the line. I would wait and see what the Euro does before worrying about too much taint. Not worried lol. I worried watching the stock market crash the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Im hearing the Euro is dropping 1"+ precip on the HV ( All Snow) Can anyone confirm this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I used to live off Old Forge Hill Rd in New Windsor for about 2 yrs and that area was an absolute snow hole. New Windsor has to be one of the worst places for snow in the county. my area in lower ct valley pretty brutal too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 good morning fans, 6 ZNAM/GFS still looks warm for my backyard to the i 84 area around hr 33 Warning hoisted for 6-10 or 8-12 on your location. My call for my back yard. 7 inches of snow to sleet ending as freezing rain. Rd 3 in the pipes. 6 Z GFS looked interesting. Current temp 12F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I used to live off Old Forge Hill Rd in New Windsor for about 2 yrs and that area was an absolute snow hole. New Windsor has to be one of the worst places for snow in the county. Where I used to live in highland falls was the worst... Just off the Hudson, surrounded by mountains on either side it was terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 good morning fans, 6 ZNAM/GFS still looks warm for my backyard to the i 84 area around hr 33 Warning hoisted for 6-10 or 8-12 on your location. My call for my back yard. 7 inches of snow to sleet ending as freezing rain. Rd 3 in the pipes. 6 Z GFS looked interesting. Current temp 12F Always a tricky forecast when a change from snow to sleet / freezing rain is in the forecast. This will definitely be a scenario where the further north and NW you are the more snow you will get. I suspect NNJ (~I-80 north will be in the 4-8" range followed by a period of sleet and probably a little bit of freezing rain too. Far NW NJ should do a little better with snow so 6-10" with High Point making a run at 12". Interior SE NY similar to NNJ / NW NJ though once north of I-84 it looks like mainly snow with just a little bit of sleet thus 8-12" locally up to 14". I am still excited for Sunday / Monday despite a bit of waffling on some of the overnight data. That is to be expected. Far from a certainty but confidence is above average at this range. Temp this morning at 4:15am when I left for work was 8. Last I saw Andover was at 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY348 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-050900-/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0002.140205T0500Z-140206T0500Z//O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0002.140205T0300Z-140206T0000Z/YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PENN YAN...SENECA FALLS...AUBURN...CORNING...HORNELL...WATKINS GLEN...ELMIRA...ITHACA...CORTLAND...NORWICH...ONEONTA...COOPERSTOWN...OWEGO...BINGHAMTON...WALTON...DELHI...MONTICELLO...TOWANDA...SAYRE...MONTROSE...TUNKHANNOCK348 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PMEST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THISEVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE TWIN TIERS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERNPENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...AND PORTIONS OFTHE FINGER LAKES REGION.* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING...STEADY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THISEVENING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIESTSNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 3AND 11 AM...WHEN SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOURAT TIMES. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.* IMPACTS...THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL ONWEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSOPOSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Temps have continued to fall here by me this morning - down to 9F Latest forecast is 7-13 inches for tonight into tomorrow. Hopefully this one delivers for us in the burbs. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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