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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - Discussion


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Does anyone have an explanation as to why the models keep forecasting precipitation much further north than the storm produces?  It seems like this is a recurring theme this year.  What are the models missing or mis-evaluating to continue to make this same error?

I don't think the errors have been that significant honestly. This event trended at least a couple hundred miles north over the past few days, and the northern extent is right about where modeled by the globals. Some of the mesoscale models had some outrageous solutions this morning, showing like 6" or something all the way up the HV, but when the difference is 15 or 20 miles it can probably be attributed to background noise. It's never a good idea to bank on fringe accumulations anyway.

 

Light snow here, but seems to be increasing a bit in intensity. 28F/27F

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