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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - Discussion


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This is a bad week for you guys. This is the type of storm that will knock out power for a lot of people up ur way then the weekend could deal you guys a crushing blow.

 

I really don't think this is going to be a bad ice storm. The map that was just posted above pretty much shows rain vs snow. Do I think they'll be some ice in Northern NJ and potentially parts of the Lower HV, yes, but I am not seeing this as a setup for a crippling icestorm anywhere really. Mid levels tend warm faster than modeled when they are going to warm at all but in this situation we don't have a primary raging northward, as long as the primary doesn't make it north of say Pittsburgh and the secondary doesn't form North of Cape May this is an all snow event north of I84 and probably even at least mostly snow event between I287 and I84.

 

Furthering this point, 925 temps are even colder than 850 temps so if anything the ice would primarily be sleet, not ZR which is not nearly as bad.

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Primary hangs on longer this run on the GGEM, I'm still all snow but there is sleet introduced into the equation for south of I84, at least it's not ZR.

 

Maybe my statements before were a bit too strong, I'm not saying there can't be mixing, I just don't see a major ice storm out of this except maybe Northern NJ was my main point.

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6-10" of snow knocking out power? Only places I see ice is for NNJ/ Lower Weestchester/Rockland counties

Closer to the city this gets dicey. Remember these all get wetter as we closer. Ur all snow but just n of the city 850s warm just enough

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12z GGEM 

 

hr 71  Heavy snow for all in this forum..

 

Even tries to get into NYC on that frame, most of the run is rain for the city though. Heavy Snow to sleet storm between I287 and I84, north of I84 basically all snow. Northern NJ is the area that would have to be worry about significant ZR on that run which is what we've been saying is the zone to be most concerned about. 

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Even tries to get into NYC on that frame, most of the run is rain for the city though. Heavy Snow to sleet storm between I287 and I84, north of I84 basically all snow. Northern NJ is the area that would have to be worry about significant ZR on that run which is what we've been saying is the zone to be most concerned about. 

 

Yeap I agree. From NJ/NY border to I-84 looks like a Snow to Sleet to Snow event where north of I-84 is all snow. Thankfully I live 1 mile north of 84 lol.. j/k

 

Lower Westchester/Rockland & NNJ are in the danger zone for ZR according to the GGEM

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Well I'm getting excited about this week but I'm not one to spike the football too soon. In fact, I'm the type that just hands the ball to the ref, act like I've been there before and plan to be there again ;)

A thought on freezing rain and icing, heavy freezing rain isn't what I worry about for trees and power lines coming down. Typically the heavy rain doesn't have time to freeze on the trees and wires as much as one would think, it falls to the ground instead. It's the long duration light freezing rain and drizzle the does the real damage. If one looks at the big ice storm of 98 in northern New England and southern Canada I think you'll see most areas reported just light freezing rain and drizzle but it lasted for days.

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Yeap I agree. From NJ/NY border to I-84 looks like a Snow to Sleet to Snow event where north of I-84 is all snow. Thankfully I live 1 mile north of 84 lol.. j/k

 

Lower Westchester/Rockland & NNJ are in the danger zone for ZR according to the GGEM

Yeh I agree. Considering where you guys are I really meant it for the lower westchester guys , not you

You guys snow hard. So strike that post.

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Well I'm getting excited about this week but I'm not one to spike the football too soon. In fact, I'm the type that just hands the ball to the ref, act like I've been there before and plan to be there again ;)

A thought on freezing rain and icing, heavy freezing rain isn't what I worry about for trees and power lines coming down. Typically the heavy rain doesn't have time to freeze on the trees and wires as much as one would think, it falls to the ground instead. It's the long duration light freezing rain and drizzle the does the real damage. If one looks at the big ice storm of 98 in northern New England and southern Canada I think you'll see most areas reported just light freezing rain and drizzle but it lasted for days.

 

I'll wait until the 12Z Euro before having any real confidence on a forecast, I think north of I84 this is a fairly easy forecast with primarily snow. I think it's south of I84 that this forecast becomes very tricky.

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I'll wait until the 12Z Euro before having any real confidence on a forecast, I think north of I84 this is a fairly easy forecast with primarily snow. I think it's south of I84 that this forecast becomes very tricky.

Could be one of the few instances this year where being North of 84 pays off. See what happens but my guess is we see a slight NW tick from the Euro.

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Could be one of the few instances this year where being North of 84 pays off. See what happens but my guess is we see a slight NW tick from the Euro.

 

Yea since I moved here from NYC I haven't really benefitted from being inland lol in any storm other than maybe 12/14/2013 and maybe one storm late last year.

 

Seems I've been on the NW fringe time after time after time.

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Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

301 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY...

CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-176>179-

030415-

/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.140203T1000Z-140204T0000Z/

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-

WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-

EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-

EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-

SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-

RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-

NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

301 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST

MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST

MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER

HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH

LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...10 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT AND LOWER 30S

EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING INTO

THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

* TIMING...LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD COMMENCE WELL

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVIER

EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL

SNOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY

AFTERNOON...AND END BY EARLY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS...MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL.

THE WET SNOW MAY ADD EXTRA WEIGHT TO TREE BRANCHES AND POWER

LINES...POTENTIALLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

&&

$

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