snywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is a bad week for you guys. This is the type of storm that will knock out power for a lot of people up ur way then the weekend could deal you guys a crushing blow. 6-10" of snow knocking out power? Only places I see ice is for NNJ/ Lower Weestchester/Rockland counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nope, vl! Thank god lol Same here.. Off till friday!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is a bad week for you guys. This is the type of storm that will knock out power for a lot of people up ur way then the weekend could deal you guys a crushing blow. I really don't think this is going to be a bad ice storm. The map that was just posted above pretty much shows rain vs snow. Do I think they'll be some ice in Northern NJ and potentially parts of the Lower HV, yes, but I am not seeing this as a setup for a crippling icestorm anywhere really. Mid levels tend warm faster than modeled when they are going to warm at all but in this situation we don't have a primary raging northward, as long as the primary doesn't make it north of say Pittsburgh and the secondary doesn't form North of Cape May this is an all snow event north of I84 and probably even at least mostly snow event between I287 and I84. Furthering this point, 925 temps are even colder than 850 temps so if anything the ice would primarily be sleet, not ZR which is not nearly as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 6-10" of snow knocking out power? Only places I see ice is for NNJ/ Lower Weestchester/Rockland countiesi'm in that area and I consider myself to be part of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 i'm in that area and I consider myself to be part of this forum. You are on the extreme southern border lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Primary hangs on longer this run on the GGEM, I'm still all snow but there is sleet introduced into the equation for south of I84, at least it's not ZR. Maybe my statements before were a bit too strong, I'm not saying there can't be mixing, I just don't see a major ice storm out of this except maybe Northern NJ was my main point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 6-10" of snow knocking out power? Only places I see ice is for NNJ/ Lower Weestchester/Rockland counties Closer to the city this gets dicey. Remember these all get wetter as we closer. Ur all snow but just n of the city 850s warm just enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z GGEM hr 71 Heavy snow for all in this forum.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like I-84 is the sleet/snow line for the 12z GGEM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z GGEM hr 71 Heavy snow for all in this forum.. Even tries to get into NYC on that frame, most of the run is rain for the city though. Heavy Snow to sleet storm between I287 and I84, north of I84 basically all snow. Northern NJ is the area that would have to be worry about significant ZR on that run which is what we've been saying is the zone to be most concerned about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Even tries to get into NYC on that frame, most of the run is rain for the city though. Heavy Snow to sleet storm between I287 and I84, north of I84 basically all snow. Northern NJ is the area that would have to be worry about significant ZR on that run which is what we've been saying is the zone to be most concerned about. Yeap I agree. From NJ/NY border to I-84 looks like a Snow to Sleet to Snow event where north of I-84 is all snow. Thankfully I live 1 mile north of 84 lol.. j/k Lower Westchester/Rockland & NNJ are in the danger zone for ZR according to the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The GGEM is probably too warm. it doesn't have the low level cold air holding as strong as what the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We'll also have to see how shallow the cold air is to see if this is more of a sleet or freezing rain risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well I'm getting excited about this week but I'm not one to spike the football too soon. In fact, I'm the type that just hands the ball to the ref, act like I've been there before and plan to be there again A thought on freezing rain and icing, heavy freezing rain isn't what I worry about for trees and power lines coming down. Typically the heavy rain doesn't have time to freeze on the trees and wires as much as one would think, it falls to the ground instead. It's the long duration light freezing rain and drizzle the does the real damage. If one looks at the big ice storm of 98 in northern New England and southern Canada I think you'll see most areas reported just light freezing rain and drizzle but it lasted for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeap I agree. From NJ/NY border to I-84 looks like a Snow to Sleet to Snow event where north of I-84 is all snow. Thankfully I live 1 mile north of 84 lol.. j/k Lower Westchester/Rockland & NNJ are in the danger zone for ZR according to the GGEM And I'm about a mile south of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The GGEM is probably too warm. it doesn't have the low level cold air holding as strong as what the GFS shows. Agree. I think the city see's plain rain but I would be surprised if Northern NJ see's as much plain rain as the GGEM is showing. GGEM can tend to be a bit warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeap I agree. From NJ/NY border to I-84 looks like a Snow to Sleet to Snow event where north of I-84 is all snow. Thankfully I live 1 mile north of 84 lol.. j/k Lower Westchester/Rockland & NNJ are in the danger zone for ZR according to the GGEM Yeh I agree. Considering where you guys are I really meant it for the lower westchester guys , not you You guys snow hard. So strike that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well I'm getting excited about this week but I'm not one to spike the football too soon. In fact, I'm the type that just hands the ball to the ref, act like I've been there before and plan to be there again A thought on freezing rain and icing, heavy freezing rain isn't what I worry about for trees and power lines coming down. Typically the heavy rain doesn't have time to freeze on the trees and wires as much as one would think, it falls to the ground instead. It's the long duration light freezing rain and drizzle the does the real damage. If one looks at the big ice storm of 98 in northern New England and southern Canada I think you'll see most areas reported just light freezing rain and drizzle but it lasted for days. I'll wait until the 12Z Euro before having any real confidence on a forecast, I think north of I84 this is a fairly easy forecast with primarily snow. I think it's south of I84 that this forecast becomes very tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 And I'm about a mile south of 84 But technically you are further north so it equals out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm 15 miles north of I84 so I am pretty safe in this event, don't have much elevation but that doesn't matter in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Blah. My boss is out of town this week so I can't miss a day. Probably be safer to sleep in the city rather than drive back and forth every day huh... 49* right now so I'm going for a bike ride :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'll wait until the 12Z Euro before having any real confidence on a forecast, I think north of I84 this is a fairly easy forecast with primarily snow. I think it's south of I84 that this forecast becomes very tricky. Could be one of the few instances this year where being North of 84 pays off. See what happens but my guess is we see a slight NW tick from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 BTW I love how active our forum has been this winter. Ive also seen an increase in posters from the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 But technically you are further north so it equals out lol But I'm further east too...LOL. I think you and I are in the "same spot", it all evens out but your 500 feet makes the difference. Glad to see folks in here too and no whining! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Could be one of the few instances this year where being North of 84 pays off. See what happens but my guess is we see a slight NW tick from the Euro. Yea since I moved here from NYC I haven't really benefitted from being inland lol in any storm other than maybe 12/14/2013 and maybe one storm late last year. Seems I've been on the NW fringe time after time after time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yea since I moved here from NYC I haven't really benefitted from being inland lol in any storm other than maybe 12/14/2013 and maybe one storm late last year. Seems I've been on the NW fringe time after time after time. How long have you been up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How long have you been up here? About a year and a half so I've experienced the past two winters here (although missed out on a couple of storms here that were snow here and rain in the city because I was in the city for a part of last winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z GGEM is a major hit from I-84 north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 301 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY... CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-176>179- 030415- /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.140203T1000Z-140204T0000Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD- WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 301 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...10 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT AND LOWER 30S EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD COMMENCE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVIER EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND END BY EARLY EVENING. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS...MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL. THE WET SNOW MAY ADD EXTRA WEIGHT TO TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES...POTENTIALLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z GGEM is a major hit from I-84 north.. If the math is right 30mm is 1.18" of liquid roughly ..yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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