WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Good luck to you guys up in the NW burbs ! What sometimes ends up happening when cold air hangs on a bit longer is that you get a 6"+ accumulation followed by a wintry mix and then not as much rain as expected. Sometimes the "drenching rain that will melt all the accumulation" never ends up happening, or only melts a few inches of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Good luck to you guys up in the NW burbs ! What sometimes ends up happening when cold air hangs on a bit longer is that you get a 6"+ accumulation followed by a wintry mix and then not as much rain as expected. Sometimes the "drenching rain that will melt all the accumulation" never ends up happening, or only melts a few inches of it It very rarely rains with these setups up here. Its literally night and day in comparison to the coast with swfes. We may end as some fzdz but the snow usually comes in like a wall and over produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 My average seasonal total thru the end of January is 23.5" and my actual seasonal snowfall through that time is 26.7" which is +3.2" for this point in the season. 32.6" so far for the season. About 64% of normal. Right on target here for an average winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It very rarely rains with these setups up here. Its literally night and day in comparison to the coast with swfes. We may end as some fzdz but the snow usually comes in like a wall and over produces. usually , but the 12z gfs would bring alot of rain area wide. im hoping for 5-6 followed by a ton of sleet than ending as fdzl or drzl. of course id really want all snow but thats not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Not sure if I am looking at the same model, but it seems the HV will switch over to a mix after a front end dump on the 12Z GFS. I would not go all in for a big snow storm yet. Definitely an improvement, though verbatim shows nearly half an inch of freezing rain after a big dump of snow (for KPOU) http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KPOU&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 usually , but the 12z gfs would bring alot of rain area wide. im hoping for 5-6 followed by a ton of sleet than ending as fdzl or drzl. of course id really want all snow but thats not happening I don't think the gfs setup would be a lot of rain, as said above, these storms are pretty predictable in Orange County northward, heavy thump of snow, then some sleet/zr then maybe drizzle or dryslotting. In NYC Metro it's a different animal, they will see heavy rain and probably anyone within 30-40 miles of NYC will change to at least some heavy rain. I'm kind of new on here so for the record I'm usually not that optimistic about storms, but for this particular setup I am pretty confident this will be mostly frozen precip from at least from say Orange/Putnam counties and and points north. If this does bust low on snow, it will be a skating rink in these zones, not a river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I don't think the gfs setup would be a lot of rain, as said above, these storms are pretty predictable in Orange County northward, heavy thump of snow, then some sleet/zr then maybe drizzle or dryslotting. In NYC Metro it's a different animal, they will see heavy rain and probably anyone within 30-40 miles of NYC will change to at least some heavy rain. I'm kind of new on here so for the record I'm usually not that optimistic about storms, but for this particular setup I am pretty confident this will be mostly frozen precip from at least from say Orange/Putnam counties and and points north. If this does bust low on snow, it will be a skating rink in these zones, not a river. u guys would love the ggem. all snow for u guys and would have my area snow to sleet back to snow. has the low forming on nj coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I don't think the gfs setup would be a lot of rain, as said above, these storms are pretty predictable in Orange County northward, heavy thump of snow, then some sleet/zr then maybe drizzle or dryslotting. In NYC Metro it's a different animal, they will see heavy rain and probably anyone within 30-40 miles of NYC will change to at least some heavy rain. I'm kind of new on here so for the record I'm usually not that optimistic about storms, but for this particular setup I am pretty confident this will be mostly frozen precip from at least from say Orange/Putnam counties and and points north. If this does bust low on snow, it will be a skating rink in these zones, not a river. I agree 100%.. Temps will most likely stay below freezing through the entire event so if mid levels warm faster than anticipated then its really gonna be a disaster up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 CMC is south and colder than the GFS, all snow for most in this thread, even NYC Metro stays mostly frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 CMC is south and colder than the GFS, all snow for most in this thread, even NYC Metro stays mostly frozen yup has low forming way south than gfs on nj coast. u guys would be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 yup has low forming way south than gfs on nj coast. u guys would be all snow That's why I'm not worried about rain with this threat, GFS only has a little rain here at the end and it's the northern most model at the moment. I think the HV is in a good spot with this one. CMC might be a bit too far south but we'll have to see, last nights Euro wasn't too far off from what the CMC is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z GGEM is an 18 hr all snow event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z GGEM is an 18 hr all snow event.. Any details on possible totals. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z GGEM is an 18 hr all snow event..yes!!! thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Any details on possible totals. Best. Accumulation map on my site hasn't come up yet but the precip maps show the snow/mix line right at the NJ/NY border for most of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Any details on possible totals. Best. 20-25mm for many in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z GFS,GGEM,Euro all give the area 8-12" of snow now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z GFS,GGEM,Euro all give the area 8-12" of snow now.. We have some week ahead of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 We have some week ahead of us! Yea. I am fully on the snow mobile at this point. Rumors of a threat after the midweek storm. Possible storm run on the horizon Monday - 1-3 on location Wednesday - 8-12 Weekend - ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 I reviewed the Mt Holly & Upton discussion for the mid week threat. Mt Holly - not to impressed - sleet freezing rain likely. Upton - More impressed - snow mostly interior, some mix possible at some point. Monday event - 1-2 inches seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 From the 7:10pm NWS Albany discussion. They seem pretty confident in this system I'd say. INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES AT ALL LEVELS WILL BE COLD ENOUGHTO PRODUCE ALL SNOW ALL ZONES...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOMETIMEAFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING SUBSTANTIALOVERRUNNING...AND BROAD-REACHING REGIONAL IMPACT...WITH AN EXCELLENTCHANCE THAT OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOOKING AT VERYSIGNIFICANT PURE SNOW POTENTIAL. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LOOKS INORDER FOR MOST OF THE CALENDAR DAY WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN WITH RAPIDPROGRESSION...THIS COULD BE OUR HEAVIEST SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON.ALREADY 3 TO 6 INCHES COULD BE ON THE GROUND BY DAYBREAK.CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO EASILY CATEGORICAL THIS FAR INADVANCE FOR WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I reviewed the Mt Holly & Upton discussion for the mid week threat. Mt Holly - not to impressed - sleet freezing rain likely. Upton - More impressed - snow mostly interior, some mix possible at some point. Monday event - 1-2 inches seems likely. yea i just mentioned that about mt holly. every model shows a healthy front end snow event in many of there zones yet they mention no snow at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 From the 7:10pm NWS Albany discussion. They seem pretty confident in this system I'd say. INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES AT ALL LEVELS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ALL SNOW ALL ZONES...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING SUBSTANTIAL OVERRUNNING...AND BROAD-REACHING REGIONAL IMPACT...WITH AN EXCELLENT CHANCE THAT OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOOKING AT VERY SIGNIFICANT PURE SNOW POTENTIAL. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LOOKS IN ORDER FOR MOST OF THE CALENDAR DAY WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN WITH RAPID PROGRESSION...THIS COULD BE OUR HEAVIEST SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON. ALREADY 3 TO 6 INCHES COULD BE ON THE GROUND BY DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO EASILY CATEGORICAL THIS FAR IN ADVANCE FOR WEDNESDAY. Albany is usually pretty bearish when it comes to snow potential, so this is nice to see. Though I will say that they also usually seem to weigh their forecast heavily from the Capital District north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I wish BGM was as positive in the their last discussion ..then again we are still 4 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 yea i just mentioned that about mt holly. every model shows a healthy front end snow event in many of there zones yet they mention no snow at all? they have been terrible in our area this season. Also as it is the weekend. I don't think Tony or Walt are at the wheel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I wish BGM was as positive in the their last discussion ..then again we are still 4 days away. Ha, you'll come to learn BGM typically is the most conservative, and the last to pull the trigger for many events. After living in the Binghamton CWA for over 16 years now, you become accustom to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Positive trends continuing tonight. WB weenie snow maps from the 00z GFS put down 8-12" regionwide. Still a slug of freezing rain from NW NJ into the lower HV it looks like, but Dutchess and Ulster seem to stay all snow for the entire storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 0z GFS... All Snow http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGJ http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kswf http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kpou Very close to sleet for FWN but thats expected.. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kfwn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 0z RGEM gives parts of the HV 3-4" with more as u head down into N NJ for monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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