NepaJames8602 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The dependency on seasonal averages vs. elevation is not too significant here in Pike county Pa. But I guess if you look at the general radius for which it occurs, it can be. Here at 1,230 feet, I average roughly 55 inches per season. Between 1,500-1,800 feet, probably averages lows 60's, and between 1,800 to 2,200 is close to a 70 inch average. 5-15 inch difference within a 50 mile radius can be rather intense though given this is all within the same county. It's a trade off though. I'm only 5 miles west of the Sussex county border, so I will generally get into heavier snows vs extreme western portions of my county that have the higher elevations than me during larger Nor'easters, but they certainly make out far greater when those significant early and late season elevation snowstorms that hit near and above 2,000 feet. The cutoff from significant snows to just a couple inches with those, generally occurs around 1,500 feet around here. I can remember numerous elevation storms, where I received a few slushy inches at my elevation, yet not even 5 miles up the road, and only 200-300 feet higher than my house, had damn near 6-12 inches. I guess you can look at it like a balancing act. Take last weeks storm for example, I received 1 inch of snow on Tuesday that turned to sleet/frz rain than rain, and it changed back over to snow on the back side and I received another inch. I took a ride 5 miles up the road Thanksgiving day, around 1,400 to 1,500 feet, and they easily had damn near 2.0 inches of snow. So every 100 foot you climb around here, certainly can make the world of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The 06z GFS was a solid warning criteria snowfall for a lot of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 for which event bud? or are we down to only one event now? haha... i can't keep up and my phone is Cr*p. thx. The 06z GFS was a solid warning criteria snowfall for a lot of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 for which event bud? or are we down to only one event now? haha... i can't keep up and my phone is Cr*p. thx. For Monday my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I grew up in Monmouth County and now live in Sussex County. The difference is MASSIVE and I've only been here a year. Any borderline event was snow last year and my parents were raining! Take the averages out the window. That's real world experience friends of the NW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 For Monday my friend.Thanks man! This setup scream n/w paste job... Glad to see models coming around. Typical 3-6 ending as snizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I grew up in Monmouth County and now live in Sussex County. The difference is MASSIVE and I've only been here a year. Any borderline event was snow last year and my parents were raining! Take the averages out the window. That's real world experience friends of the NW! It always makes me laugh when folks living on the coast, especially on Long Island attempt to portray that they are in a better spot for snow than us. The only reason it's even a discussion is because they can be jackpotted in a few rare circumstances, such as Boxing Day. The boundary in borderline events seems to be Rt.23 in NJ and I-87 in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Thanks man! This setup scream n/w paste job... Glad to see models coming around. Typical 3-6 ending as snizzle. Yeah it's going to be that back breaking stuff as well. If the 06z GFS is correct we all eventually flip to moderate rain. That's going to be quite the mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It always makes me laugh when folks living on the coast, especially on Long Island attempt to portray that they are in a better spot for snow than us. The only reason it's even a discussion is because they can be jackpotted in a few rare circumstances, such as Boxing Day. The boundary in borderline events seems to be Rt.23 in NJ and I-87 in NY. The best part is that for the Boxing Day Blizzard I intentionally got 'stuck' at my parents in Monmouth County so I have the best of both worlds when necessary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The best part is that for the Boxing Day Blizzard I intentionally got 'stuck' at my parents in Monmouth County so I have the best of both worlds when necessary! Haha. The western cutoff in that storm was amazing. I had around 15" IMBY but Wayne in the next town over had almost double that. The best banding setup 10 miles to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Binghamton issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for my area. 12z nam has a pretty decent hit here in Nepa Fri night into Sat, with rain changing to a nice thump with that final wave riding the boundary as it drops s.e. Hopefully that front trends a bit faster and you guys can get snow into Sussex and Orange too! Hazardous Weather OutlookHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY439 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013NYZ024-045-046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-050945-CHEMUNG-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-439 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEWYORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD MIXWITH SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES ON FRIDAY AS COLDERAIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AFINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS ACCUMULATINGSNOW...POTENTIALLY A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES. MONITOR FORECASTS FORUPDATES..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It always makes me laugh when folks living on the coast, especially on Long Island attempt to portray that they are in a better spot for snow than us. The only reason it's even a discussion is because they can be jackpotted in a few rare circumstances, such as Boxing Day. The boundary in borderline events seems to be Rt.23 in NJ and I-87 in NY. The last 2-3 yrs were the exception to the rule. This yr seems to have that smell of a good ole fashion winter where we hear about the R/S line setting up shop instead of being fringe city. BTW... 12z GFS ends us on saturday with moderate snowfall & gives us a few inches on Monday.. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Decent trends today on the morning/afternoon models. Looks as if we may get 2-4 late Friday into Saturday & Sunday into Monday looks like 4-6 over to a mix bag. Active times ahead. Hoping we get a winter storm watch for the Sunday/Monday event. Friday night/Saturday AM an advisory may got hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Decent trends today on the morning/afternoon models. Looks as if we may get 2-4 late Friday into Saturday & Sunday into Monday looks like 4-6 over to a mix bag. Active times ahead. Hoping we get a winter storm watch for the Sunday/Monday event. Friday night/Saturday AM an advisory may got hoisted. I doubt we will. Confidence has to be at least 60% of seeing warning criteria snowfall for that to happen, unless we see big trends towards a snowier or icier situation as time goes on. I never really understood why the criteria is so high for winter storm watches, it's a watch for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It always makes me laugh when folks living on the coast, especially on Long Island attempt to portray that they are in a better spot for snow than us. The only reason it's even a discussion is because they can be jackpotted in a few rare circumstances, such as Boxing Day. The boundary in borderline events seems to be Rt.23 in NJ and I-87 in NY. I can't speak for the rest of the world...but I seriously doubt I ever argue that Long Island is some sort of good snow area...its better than some spots and worse than others...here's the numbers for the last 13 years for the WSO out at Upton...so you have a clearer picture of the comparative climate record recently. Total Snowfall 2000-01 through 2012-13 (Last 13 Years) Boston / Logan Airport: 620.9 inches / average 47.76 inches Brookhaven Lab, L.I. / Upton: 538.6 inches / average 41.43 inches New York City / Central Park: 410.1 inches / average 31.55 inches Philadelphia / International Airport: 321.9 inches / average 24.76 inches Baltimore / BWI Airport: 253.0 inches / average 19.46 inches Washington / Reagan Airport: 182.7 inches / average 14.05 inches http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I can't speak for the rest of the world...but I seriously doubt I ever argue that Long Island is some sort of good snow area...its better than some spots and worse than others...here's the numbers for the last 13 years for the WSO out at Upton...so you have a clearer picture of the comparative climate record recently. Total Snowfall 2000-01 through 2012-13 (Last 13 Years) Boston / Logan Airport: 620.9 inches / average 47.76 inches Brookhaven Lab, L.I. / Upton: 538.6 inches / average 41.43 inches New York City / Central Park: 410.1 inches / average 31.55 inches Philadelphia / International Airport: 321.9 inches / average 24.76 inches Baltimore / BWI Airport: 253.0 inches / average 19.46 inches Washington / Reagan Airport: 182.7 inches / average 14.05 inches http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm Since Upton picked up 538.6 inches of snow in the last 13 years...they must have "jackpotted" more than once in a blue moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Upton has seen more than 60 inches of snow 5 times in the last 13 years, more than 50 inches of snow 7 times in that span and more than 40 inches 8 times in the last 13 years. http://www.bnl.gov/w...hlySnowfall.htm Here's a nice write up on snowfall patterns on the Island per board member North Shore Wx.. http://northshorewx.com/Climate.asp Since March 2009, I believe Upton has seen 8 snowstorms of greater than 10 inches: 3/2/09: 14.0" 12/19/09: 26.3" 2/10/10: 13.4" 2/25/10: 10.4" 12/26/10: 18.8" 1/11/11: 14.1" 1/27/11: 13.3 2/8/13: 30.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Sorry for cluttering the NW thread...but we Long Islanders can't afford one on our salaries... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It always makes me laugh when folks living on the coast, especially on Long Island attempt to portray that they are in a better spot for snow than us. The only reason it's even a discussion is because they can be jackpotted in a few rare circumstances, such as Boxing Day. The boundary in borderline events seems to be Rt.23 in NJ and I-87 in NY. BTW...I'd like to see some data from a cooperative or first order station in or near "Pompton Plains" before I take at face value your assertion that your town is the second coming of Paradise Ranger Station when it comes to snowfall...at least I have official NWS record keepers for the Upton climate record. Where is your official station in immediate or close proximity to Pompton that verifies the astonishing snow amounts you claim to fall there??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 BTW...I'd like to see some data from a cooperative or first order station in or near "Pompton Plains" before I take at face value your assertion that your town is the second coming of Paradise Ranger Station when it comes to snowfall...at least I have official NWS record keepers for the Upton climate record. Where is your official station in immediate or close proximity to Pompton that verifies the astonishing snow amounts you claim to fall there??? lol. uptons been a snow magnet recently. they have had some really big storms. I remember seeing some of their pictures on facebook, very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 lol. uptons been a snow magnet recently. they have had some really big storms. I remember seeing some of their pictures on facebook, very impressive. I ain't got nothing against the N&W people...but this poster "YanksGuy"...he acts arrogant...as if he has some sort of God-given right to determine how Nature sees fit to distribute weather....there is an old saying...you push too hard...people gonna push back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It always makes me laugh when folks living on the coast, especially on Long Island attempt to portray that they are in a better spot for snow than us. The only reason it's even a discussion is because they can be jackpotted in a few rare circumstances, such as Boxing Day. The boundary in borderline events seems to be Rt.23 in NJ and I-87 in NY. Let's be honest, you're not in a great snow spot either. I would hardly call 34-36"/yr or so which is around what you average, a snowy area. Looks like you live at about 150-200ft in interior Bergen/far eastern Morris County. That area is just southeast of where the real uptick in annual snowfall occurs. Yes, you're snowier than NYC and most of LI which falls in the 27-32" range overall. But you're only snowier by a handful of inches on average. If you averaged say 45-50"/yr, then I can see your argument. For that, you need to be living in the higher terrain of Morris, Passaic, or Sussex counties. You will benefit more often in synoptic events featuring inland lows, with winds turning easterly. But Miller B's generally favor LI over your area, and that accounts for a large percentage of our snowfall events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 I doubt we will. Confidence has to be at least 60% of seeing warning criteria snowfall for that to happen, unless we see big trends towards a snowier or icier situation as time goes on. I never really understood why the criteria is so high for winter storm watches, it's a watch for a reason. I strongly disagree. I expect Sussex County to get an advisory for late Friday night into Saturday and Winter Storm watch Sunday into Monday for snow, sleet, freezing and rain. Still looking for 2-4 Friday/Saturday and 4-6 Sunday night/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This thread is gonna get active thus weekend Fun times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I like your call Matt... being a couple hundred feet below you, i'm going to shave an inch off the top numbers for those of us living on cliffs..like imby. You have the best potential right now of busting high, IMO. could see you with somewhere north of 6 Sunday night. I strongly disagree. I expect Sussex County to get an advisory for late Friday night into Saturday and Winter Storm watch Sunday into Monday for snow, sleet, freezing and rain. Still looking for 2-4 Friday/Saturday and 4-6 Sunday night/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I ain't got nothing against the N&W people...but this poster "YanksGuy"...he acts arrogant...as if he has some sort of God-given right to determine how Nature sees fit to distribute weather....there is an old saying...you push too hard...people gonna push back. My dislike started with you last winter when you told me "I thought we gave you guys a thread to go play in" because we were talking about a NW snow event in the general sub forum. I live basically at the base of the mountain, very close to I-287. Half of our town is in the hills and the other part, Pequannock Valley is down in the valley. Butler, which is between myself and West Milford is where the real uptick in snowfall begins. I never said that my area had the greatest snowfall in the region. The strip that runs from Vernon through Hewitt and then into Orange County is the JP zone. Ever since the Philly forum and the NYC forum split up, I feel like I don't belong to either of them. I don't really fit in with the NYC folks because so much of that talk is focused towards the coast. And I don't really fall into the Philly forum because it's so far away. I live in the Mt. Holly CWA and the fact of the matter is my weather is very different from Long Island. That doesn't mean I get way more snow than everyone else. In fact I often get fringed with big coastals, but I make up for it with borderline events like Monday. And for the record, I'm not arrogant, but I have felt the need to point out every time the interior snows and the coasts rains after your comments last winter. We need a nice KU event where the whole area gets hammered, such as 96 or PDII and then nobody can cry because they got rain and nobody can cry because they got fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Gentlemen, The spirit of the NW burb thread has been overall very friendly since we started last year. That's the draw of it, and one of the things that makes the NW thread appealing. We can all debate who sees more/less in different scenarios....but please, let's not fight against numbers. I love Tom Stavola's map for factual NJ snowfall figures. I am probably five minutes from Matt's house (probably the highest in the state) but the same shade as yanksfan, so he has a valid point about being in this territory. Nothing arrogant or factually incorrect about that as far as I can see. You both seem like good guys, let's move on and hope we all see some snow over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 My dislike started with you last winter when you told me "I thought we gave you guys a thread to go play in" because we were talking about a NW snow event in the general sub forum. I live basically at the base of the mountain, very close to I-287. Half of our town is in the hills and the other part, Pequannock Valley is down in the valley. Butler, which is between myself and West Milford is where the real uptick in snowfall begins. I never said that my area had the greatest snowfall in the region. The strip that runs from Vernon through Hewitt and then into Orange County is the JP zone. Ever since the Philly forum and the NYC forum split up, I feel like I don't belong to either of them. I don't really fit in with the NYC folks because so much of that talk is focused towards the coast. And I don't really fall into the Philly forum because it's so far away. I live in the Mt. Holly CWA and the fact of the matter is my weather is very different from Long Island. That doesn't mean I get way more snow than everyone else. In fact I often get fringed with big coastals, but I make up for it with borderline events like Monday. And for the record, I'm not arrogant, but I have felt the need to point out every time the interior snows and the coasts rains after your comments last winter. We need a nice KU event where the whole area gets hammered, such as 96 or PDII and then nobody can cry because they got rain and nobody can cry because they got fringed. If your posting style changes and I see less editorializing about the marvels of the snowy Northern New Jersey winter versus the absolute horror of the rain soaked Long island winter; I'll consider this matter closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This thread is gonna get active thus weekend Fun times ahead! I'm thinking i'm in a good location for this weekends fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm thinking i'm in a good location for this weekends fun. you are always in a good location . you probably averge 75 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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