snywx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 ^^ Toast and Frosted Flakes? Well, another 2" and it seems to be winding down. Its still snowing but it doesn't have that accumulating feel anymore so I'm going to call it at a (questionable) 7" because the wind made a mess of things and measuring was difficult at best. lol.. You must be the only one in the HV who has more than 4". Even the guy (Viking?) down in central westchester has 3-4" lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Snow development was terrible yet again Yeah I had about 20 mins of good dendrites.. Other than that it was extremely light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 So, is this the rest of winter pattern.......snowy coast, bare interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 So, is this the rest of winter pattern.......snowy coast, bare interior? I can't complain. 30" for the season and its 1/21.. On pace for an average 50" season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 So, is this the rest of winter pattern.......snowy coast, bare interior? I have a friend upstate, they have been looking for snow all winter. They see it in the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I can't complain. 30" for the season and its 1/21.. On pace for an average 50" seasonI have a ways to go still to get to 30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Add the milk to the hot chocolate[/size]I recommend Baileys in the hot chocolate rather than milk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I have a ways to go still to get to 30". What are you at? 25" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I had a whopping 1.0" inch this morning with the initial snow. My wwa for 2-5 was pretty much useless. Yet again, another fringe storm that simply does not work out. Various models had at least .25 to upwards of .30 to .40 of qpf out this way all the way up to this morning. Next time one is modeled as such, I will not get near as excited anymore lol. I have learned my lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Alittle over 1" here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I had a whopping 1.0" inch this morning with the initial snow. My wwa for 2-5 was pretty much useless. Yet again, another fringe storm that simply does not work out. Various models had at least .25 to upwards of .30 to .40 of qpf out this way all the way up to this morning. Next time one is modeled as such, I will not get near as excited anymore lol. I have learned my lesson. I learned that lesson a while ago. Northern fringe always underperforms on models. What you and I (and the HV folks) need is a classic hit-em-all storm with a huge QPF shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I learned that lesson a while ago. Northern fringe always underperforms on models. What you and I (and the HV folks) need is a classic hit-em-all storm with a huge QPF shield. So have I, but it bites me in the rear every time. I have been active on various weather boards for at least 10 years. I first met Snywx roughly 10 years ago on one of them. I can count at least 5-10 large Nor'easters since the early to mid 2000's, that have shafted our area majorly. Honestly, growing up I never had these concerns it seemed. Regardless of track being near the coast or near the B.M, the precip shields always seemed rather expansive and heavy as far west as even Central Pa. I know every storm is different, and a lot depends on track, but it truly seems like we have been in a cycle of very tightly packed cyclones, with confined precip shields. Not to be negative, but it's quite frustrating seeing storm after storm, season after season, pound 30-50 miles to your s.e, while you whiff cirrus or flurries LOL. For the majority of our areas to benefit, we need to see a slp right off the coast and well inside the B.M. Although Nepa and parts of Central Pa, have a very iffy geographical orientation to benefit from large deformation bands/mesoscale banding. We truly need a PERFECT storm track which is quite rare. Bring me a moisture laden miller A from Georgia to Maine any day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 lol.. You must be the only one in the HV who has more than 4". Even the guy (Viking?) down in central westchester has 3-4" lol..Crazy gradient in Westchester..12" in Dobbs Ferry and 4" in Ossining? People are complaining about not receiving modeled QPF but you have to be careful on the NW side of a storm as there's often a tight gradient . Models never see the subsidence on the edge of the heavy band. NYC had this fate in 2/5/10 when central NJ had 12" and Central Park didn't see a flake. The 1/2 storm was also a bust for NW areas. I was in the Poconos where all the forecasters had 8-12" or even 10-14" for higher elevations. We got 4" of snow grains in Hercules while my place in Brooklyn racked up a foot. Also, cold temps don't mean good ratios when the snow is light and lift is poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Having a house in the Poconos and going up there to ski, I've also been disappointed. We haven't seen many coast huggers to jackpot the interior. I remember 92-93 and 93-94 with 3' snowpack and then incredible skiing in some of 02-03. It seems 06-07 was the last great winter up there. They did well in the Valentine's Day Blizzard and St. Patty's Day...probably like 20" and 12" respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I can't complain. 30" for the season and its 1/21.. On pace for an average 50" seasonYeah but I have 30" in Southern Brooklyn. Later in the season the interior gains a big advantage though. But no one from the Poconos to Albany to interior SE NY can love this pattern. Easy to see how a place like Dobbs could beat you. The PV is not your friend up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Having a house in the Poconos and going up there to ski, I've also been disappointed. We haven't seen many coast huggers to jackpot the interior. I remember 92-93 and 93-94 with 3' snowpack and then incredible skiing in some of 02-03. It seems 06-07 was the last great winter up there. They did well in the Valentine's Day Blizzard and St. Patty's Day...probably like 20" and 12" respectively. Yup, have not had a good season since honestly. I mean the big retro low in 2010 was probably the last big snowfall here over 12 inches. 90's were a golden era here in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Crazy gradient in Westchester..12" in Dobbs Ferry and 4" in Ossining? People are complaining about not receiving modeled QPF but you have to be careful on the NW side of a storm as there's often a tight gradient . Models never see the subsidence on the edge of the heavy band. NYC had this fate in 2/5/10 when central NJ had 12" and Central Park didn't see a flake. The 1/2 storm was also a bust for NW areas. I was in the Poconos where all the forecasters had 8-12" or even 10-14" for higher elevations. We got 4" of snow grains in Hercules while my place in Brooklyn racked up a foot. Also, cold temps don't mean good ratios when the snow is light and lift is poor. No one in Dutchess, Litchfield counties recieved more than 1" lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yup, have not had a good season since honestly. I mean the big retro low in 2010 was probably the last big snowfall here over 12 inches. 90's were a golden era here in the Poconos. The Snowicane was the last time we jackpotted. Everything since then has been nickel and dime with an occasional 12 incher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 No one in Dutchess, Litchfield counties recieved more than 1" lol..How much did you get in 1/2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yeah but I have 30" in Southern Brooklyn. Later in the season the interior gains a big advantage though. But no one from the Poconos to Albany to interior SE NY can love this pattern. Easy to see how a place like Dobbs could beat you. The PV is not your friend up there. The difference in having 30" here by mid/late jan is just another normal winter dude.. Having 30" in southern BK at the same time is ridiculous lol. Its an amazing stretch of winters down there. Cant wait to hear the whining when it finally goes back to "normal". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 How much did you get in 1/2? 7.2" and snow growth was atrocious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The Snowicane was the last time we jackpotted. Everything since then has been nickel and dime with an occasional 12 incher.The Snowicane was great for all of us...I got 26" in Dobbs and the place in PA got 20". But the rest of the storms that year favored the coast. How much did you guys get in 12/19/09, 2/16/10 and 2/10/10? I had 8", 6.5", and 13" in Westchester.You also missed some big storms in 10-11. Did the Poconos get anything from 12/26/10, 1/12/11 or 1/27/11? I seem to think not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Regardless nzucker, one can't deny the fact that you guys along the coast are in a tremendous and god awful lucky stretch of large sized snowfalls pretty much the past 5-10 years. It seems to be a cycle.. The amount of snowfall you folks have received is nowhere near normal for those locations. So Snywx is absolutely correct about that. There is a reason the city averages under 30 inches in a typical year, while we can average anywhere from 50-70 inches depending on your location and elevation. Not trying to stir the pot here, it's just shear fact lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The Snowicane was great for all of us...I got 26" in Dobbs and the place in PA got 20". But the rest of the storms that year favored the coast. How much did you guys get in 12/19/09, 2/16/10 and 2/10/10? I had 8", 6.5", and 13" in Westchester. You also missed some big storms in 10-11. Did the Poconos get anything from 12/26/10, 1/12/11 or 1/27/11? I seem to think not? Many places in Orange county received 30"+ from the snowicane. Jackpot for the boxing day storm was also in Orange county w/ 26-30" amounts widespread near Harriman/Monroe/Highland Mills ( the snowiest corridor of the entire Upton CWA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The difference in having 30" here by mid/late jan is just another normal winter dude.. Having 30" in southern BK at the same time is ridiculous lol. Its an amazing stretch of winters down there. Cant wait to hear the whining when it finally goes back to "normal".Yup, I have 27.5" here and 38" at my parents' place in Dobbs. Both have exceeded average on January 21st, and the pattern looks to deliver a potential coastal Saturday, a clipper Monday, and a big storm around the Super Bowl. We could easily see a 50-60" winter for NYC metro. I measured about 52" last year in Westchester and would be surprised not to get more.The streak of 40"+ winters for NYC must end sometime. Central Park had over 40" in 02-03 through 05-06, then 50" in 09-10 and over 60" in 10-11 with already over 25" this year. But climo will bite back. You average more for a reason. A lot of NYC people will moan, but I actually understand the statistical rarity of this and thus appreciate it. Places like Middletown and the Poconos will get more, and we will suffer with rain. Gradient patterns like 07-08 and 08-09 (to lesser extent) are rough down here, and they will happen when we get a stronger La Nina...when we get a stronger El Niño, Warner coastal huggers will occur as we had in 97-98. Winters dominates by SW flow events and coastal huggers will allow the interior to make up ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yup, the entire week of that big retro low in 2010 was amazing. I received roughly 20 inches here in the Central part of Pike county, meanwhile northern portions of my county bordering Orange county Ny, easily received closer to 30. I don't know if some of you remember, but about two days prior to this storm hitting, there was a sneaky coastal storm that also came up the coast and gave us here in the Poconos 10-15 inches. I had a 30-40 inch snow pack county wide in like 3 days. That was an awesome week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Regardless nzucker, one can't deny the fact that you guys along the coast are in a tremendous and god awful lucky stretch of large sized snowfalls pretty much the past 5-10 years. It seems to be a cycle.. The amount of snowfall you folks have received is nowhere near normal for those locations. So Snywx is absolutely correct about that. There is a reason the city averages under 30 inches in a typical year, while we can average anywhere from 50-70 inches depending on your location and elevation. Not trying to stir the pot here, it's just shear fact lol. The last 5 yrs have been an unbelievable stretch for the immediate coast. This whole "tight precip gradient" is fairly new. Ive lived up here for about 20 yrs now and never had to deal with that nonsense till recently. But you bring up a good point. There is a reason why they average 20-28" and we avg 50"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yup, I have 27.5" here and 38" at my parents' place in Dobbs. Both have exceeded average on January 21st, and the pattern looks to deliver a potential coastal Saturday, a clipper Monday, and a big storm around the Super Bowl. We could easily see a 50-60" winter for NYC metro. I measured about 52" last year in Westchester and would be surprised not to get more. The streak of 40"+ winters for NYC must end sometime. Central Park had over 40" in 02-03 through 05-06, then 50" in 09-10 and over 60" in 10-11 with already over 25" this year. But climo will bite back. You average more for a reason. A lot of NYC people will moan, but I actually understand the statistical rarity of this and thus appreciate it. Places like Middletown and the Poconos will get more, and we will suffer with rain. Gradient patterns like 07-08 and 08-09 (to lesser extent) are rough down here, and they will happen when we get a stronger La Nina...when we get a stronger El Niño, Warner coastal huggers will occur as we had in 97-98. Winters dominates by SW flow events and coastal huggers will allow the interior to make up ground. Believe it or not but we have been above normal up here as well. It may not seem like it but I'm running about 15" above normal since 2002. Even last yr I finished roughly 8" above normal with 58" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The last 5 yrs have been an unbelievable stretch for the immediate coast. This whole "tight precip gradient" is fairly new. Ive lived up here for about 20 yrs now and never had to deal with that nonsense till recently. But you bring up a good point. There is a reason why they average 20-28" and we avg 50"+. Yeah, like I stated earlier today, this seems to be a cycle. I have never seen so many coastal systems with such a tight and confined precip shield like I have in the past 5 years. Growing up there was massive coastal storms that would throw quite a healthy deformation band well west of us even. Sure you would get your occasional miss to the s.e, but nothing like these days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yup, the entire week of that big retro low in 2010 was amazing. I received roughly 20 inches here in the Central part of Pike county, meanwhile northern portions of my county bordering Orange county Ny, easily received closer to 30. I don't know if some of you remember, but about two days prior to this storm hitting, there was a sneaky coastal storm that also came up the coast and gave us here in the Poconos 10-15 inches. I had a 30-40 inch snow pack county wide in like 3 days. That was an awesome week! Feb 2010 was one of the snowiest months on record for the HV. IMBY we received 52" alone that month. Places in the Catskills received 80" for the month!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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