Northwest NJ Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It will be interesting to see how far North and West the heavy precip gets. I've seen storms were eastern Sussex County does well and there is a sharp cutoff as you move west in the county closer to the Delaware river. Same thing for Orange County sometimes Monroe gets hit hard and there is much less snow in Port Jervis or Middletown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It will be interesting to see how far North and West the heavy precip gets. I've seen storms were eastern Sussex County does well and there is a sharp cutoff as you move west in the county closer to the Delaware river. Same thing for Orange County sometimes Monroe gets hit hard and there is much less snow in Port Jervis or Middletown. Yes I agree.. This is probably one of them. I can see Monroe getting 6" while back here we are struggling to reach 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It will be interesting to see how far North and West the heavy precip gets. I've seen storms were eastern Sussex County does well and there is a sharp cutoff as you move west in the county closer to the Delaware river. Same thing for Orange County sometimes Monroe gets hit hard and there is much less snow in Port Jervis or Middletown.This is very true- I'm in Monroe, about 6 miles north of Greenwood Lake. Nestled in between two mountains that the Appalachian runs thru. We tend to do just fine with coastals. And then the flip side where Middletown does better in other storms. But my area tends to be a bit of a snow magnet- have seen some epic amounts over the years in this corridor. Of course any snow is good during the winter. Hopefully we get in on some of the fun for this one. Still have about an inch left from the Sat morning surprise. Need to build some snow pack lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah still have about 1.5" on the ground here. Tonights runs should be very interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yes I agree.. This is probably one of them. I can see Monroe getting 6" while back here we are struggling to reach 3"I'll be pulling for all of us in the burbs- if the coast becomes the new snow magnet, might have to move lolWe just need one good old fashioned tucked inside the benchmark storm to put us over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 DT has 99% of ppl in this sub forum in the 3-6" range.. Seems like a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 DT has 99% of ppl in this sub forum in the 3-6" range.. Seems like a good call. Yup- anything more I'll just consider gravy. We will get our big one up here before all is said and done this winter - hopefully : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I've seen a million storms like this in the past, and typically when I'm on the fence like I am now, MOST cases it just doesn't work out and I get brushed with precip. However I am much further west in longitude than most of you. I think the vast majority of you will get some decent moderate accumulations. Especially you eastern Sussex county and Orange county folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I dunno... you see that digging on the vapor loop? that's pretty extreme. combine that with the west trends on the srefs, and the weenie in me says somebody on the coast is sniffing the rain while someone NW of me is getting some surprise snow....and please, coastal folks...if you are lingering in here, i realize that not one model shows rain over your house... and i'm not wishing for it... i'm just saying the west trend isn't over yet. I've seen a million storms like this in the past, and typically when I'm on the fence like I am now, MOST cases it just doesn't work out and I get brushed with precip. However I am much further west in longitude than most of you. I think the vast majority of you will get some decent moderate accumulations. Especially you eastern Sussex county and Orange county folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 15z SREF Snow Plume Mean.. POU: 11.9" MSV: 8.6" HPN: 14.9" Srefs continue to increase... Latest has POU up to 18.05". MSV at 12.21" and HPN at 17.41". What is up with these ridiculous numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Latest has POU up to 18.05". MSV at 12.21" and HPN at 17.41". What is up with these ridiculous numbers? You beat me to it!... Wow smh.. I have never ever seen the Srefs soo different in comparison to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Dendrite posted this in the NE forum. You can see a secondary deformation band on several of the members, that band must be what is causing such high numbers this far away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ah ok... You usually do see 2 deform bands set up. One closer to the center and one farther away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Latest has POU up to 18.05". MSV at 12.21" and HPN at 17.41". What is up with these ridiculous numbers? Are these ever correct recently? I always see big numbers when posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Are these ever correct recently? I always see big numbers when posted. They were around 12"+ leading up to the 1/3 storm for my area (from what I recall) and we ended up with 6". I think they were pretty accurate for the December storm, but other than that, they've not done so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Are these ever correct recently? I always see big numbers when posted. Well the storm earlier in the month had big numbers till about 24 hrs prior to the event. They then corrected down to about 7-9" and thats exactly what most recieved. We are about 18 hrs from the start time here and they continue to increase. Its def interesting thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ah ok... You usually do see 2 deform bands set up. One closer to the center and one farther away.The 18z GFS had this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ah ok... You usually do see 2 deform bands set up. One closer to the center and one farther away.The 18z GFS had this. Doesn't one usually become the "big one" though? In the case of the SREF, it seems that the big one is the further NW band, over NNJ/Hudson valley. In the members that do sow that band, it also shows less precip in the area that most likely will get the highest amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Are these ever correct recently? I always see big numbers when posted. no they are terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Doesn't one usually become the "big one" though? In the case of the SREF, it seems that the big one is the further NW band, over NNJ/Hudson valley. In the members that do sow that band, it also shows less precip in the area that most likely will get the highest amountsI have seen 2 bands in many storms. I used to live down in Edison and had the great luck to be caught in between the bands on two storms.Time will tell what occurs, but I am not going to lose any sleep over if I get 4 inches or 15. Hoping my commute home tomorrow evening goes well. Hills around here are knarly with any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm looking at the bright side - 48hrs ago they had my area at 20% of scattered snow showers. And now I'm forecasted at 4-6 maybe more. We shall know our fate by this time tomorrow night. In the end it's going to do whatever it's going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If this arctic boundary is slower than expected that might have major implications tomorrow.. Could be what the Srefs are sniffing out. Time will tell I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If this arctic boundary is slower than expected that might have major implications tomorrow.. Could be what the Srefs are sniffing out. Time will tell I guess. Could be in for a little more shoveling than what we're thinking now. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Could be in for a little more shoveling than what we're thinking now. . At least it should be fluffy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looks like the 0z RGEM has made a major bump north. Things are def starting to get interesting for us up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 how about your western friends? map trouble tonight for me... Looks like the 0z RGEM has made a major bump north. Things are def starting to get interesting for us up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looks like the 0z RGEM has made a major bump north. Things are def starting to get interesting for us up here. Definitely good trends.for us as we get closer to the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 18z RGEM & 0z RGEM.. 30 mile bump NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 18z RGEM & 0z RGEM.. 30 mile bump NW.. Should get us more in the game- no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 18z RGEM & 0z RGEM.. 30 mile bump NW.. H With all of these ticks and bumps, How are we looking up here SNYwx? putnam,middletown etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.