White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Heaviest echoes to our south with a dry area now coming into POU. Hoping the precip movement starts to move more north instead of east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 So many variables at play: ratios best in one place, LE highest in another. These variables somewhat counter each other. Thus most areas will fall into a similar range of 5-10 or 6-12. But somewhere they will reach a max combination and that will be the jackpot of 12" maybe even a little bit more. Everything I see now keeps me leaning to central 3rd of NJ then extending to LI for tat. That, however des not reduce our impacts and we easily remain in that otherwise general 5-10 or 6-12 range. HRRR recently suggest NW areas start to rap up close to dawn or shortly there after. Immediate coastal areas almost always jackpot with LE.. It's the other factors (ratios, terrain enhancement , banding) that usually benefit us. 6-12" is where 99% of us will fall under but I can see how many locations end up on the high end of that scale maybe even a bit better.. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 2.5" on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Immediate coastal areas almost always jackpot with LE.. It's the other factors (ratios, terrain enhancement , banding) that usually benefit us. 6-12" is where 99% of us will fall under but I can see how many locations end up on the high end of that scale maybe even a bit better.. We shall see Good points. It's always a balancing act amongst all those variables. This seems to be one of those instances where they balance in such a manner totals are somewhat uniform. Still cannot deny those heavy bands across central NJ aimed at LI for a favored extra few inches there. But does it really matter debating over a few inches. It's cold and it's snowing so all is good!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Btw... Nice high end bust going on down in VA/DC area... May bode well for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Radars filling in nicely in central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Temp has dropped to 6F in Highland Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Light snow down to 7F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Radars filling in nicely in central PA Was just watching that increase / filling in across north central / NE PA. Have to see how that trends as part of the overall evolution. One fear would be a solid band to our SE and another developing to the NW with light in between. Nothing to specifically support that just a concern to possibly watch for in the coming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Was just watching that increase / filling in across north central / NE PA. Have to see how that trends as part of the overall evolution. One fear would be a solid band to our SE and another developing to the NW with light in between. Nothing to specifically support that just a concern to possibly watch for in the coming hours. I would agree...ratios are fantastic but snow intensity has been awful... I haven't had more than borderline moderate for a few min then light snows all evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Snows will pick up in intensity later this evening. It was supposed to be light and steady until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Snows will pick up in intensity later this evening. It was supposed to be light and steady until now. True.. I've gotten a bit stir crazy with this storm since it's been lightly snowing/flurrying for the past 12 hrs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I think there is definitely a bit of a subsidence zone over the area right now....You can see it from NW CT stretching SE through the mid hudson valley. Hopefully it will recover, but a little frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 were done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 were done We started this thread so posts like this didn't occur, if u wanna troll go play Xbox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I think there is definitely a bit of a subsidence zone over the area right now....You can see it from NW CT stretching SE through the mid hudson valley. Hopefully it will recover, but a little frustrating. Subsidence FTL were done I wouldn't say that. I doubt we get the banding they are seeing in central and Southern NJ, but plenty of time left for this one. I personally never expected widespread double digit totals up here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0743 PM CST THU JAN 02 2014AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ/SERN NY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND/CT/RI/SERNMA/DOWN EAST MECONCERNING...HEAVY SNOWVALID 030143Z - 030645ZSUMMARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ISFORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS OF NRN NJENEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONALLY...BLIZZARDCONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE WITH TIME.DISCUSSION...SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO -- AND IN LOCAL AREAS EXCEEDING-- AN INCH PER HOUR ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSSTHE SRN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THEERN THIRD OF THE U.S. OVERNIGHT. AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD...ASURFACE LOW -- NOW OFF THE COAST OF SERN VA/NERN NC -- IS PROGGED TOUNDERGO RELATIVELY RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY ENEWD OVERTHE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.ATTM...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM ERN VA --WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS OBSERVED -- NEWD ACROSS NJ AND LONGISLAND AND INTO SRN CT/RI/SERN MA...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVYSNOWFALL INDICATED ACROSS THESE AREAS.LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALLWILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT -- FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD ACROSS NRNCT/MA/SRN VT/SRN NH/SRN ME...INLAND/WELL N OF THE ONGOING HEAVIERPRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...HIGH-RES MODELS -- INCLUDING THENMM4...THE HRRR...AND A LOCAL NSSL 4KM WRF -- DEPICT THE HEAVIESTONSHORE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SERN NEW ENGLANDVICINITY. THIS IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...ANDGIVEN THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO TRACK ENEWD AWAY FROM THE COASTWITH TIME...THE SERN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY REMAINS THE AREA OFHIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SUSTAINED/HEAVY ONSHORE SNOWFALL OVER THENEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THISAREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW...BLIZZARDCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED REDUCEDVISIBILITY/BLOWING SNOW...GOSS.. 01/03/2014ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Subsidence FTL I wouldn't say that. I doubt we get the banding they are seeing in central and Southern NJ, but plenty of time left for this one. I personally never expected widespread double digit totals up here though. I mentioned that earlier.. This was always a 6-10" storm and we should be happy with just that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 PM CST THU JAN 02 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ/SERN NY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND/CT/RI/SERN MA/DOWN EAST ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 030143Z - 030645Z SUMMARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS OF NRN NJ ENEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONALLY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE WITH TIME. DISCUSSION...SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO -- AND IN LOCAL AREAS EXCEEDING -- AN INCH PER HOUR ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE SRN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. OVERNIGHT. AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD...A SURFACE LOW -- NOW OFF THE COAST OF SERN VA/NERN NC -- IS PROGGED TO UNDERGO RELATIVELY RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY ENEWD OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. ATTM...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM ERN VA -- WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS OBSERVED -- NEWD ACROSS NJ AND LONG ISLAND AND INTO SRN CT/RI/SERN MA...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL INDICATED ACROSS THESE AREAS. LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT -- FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD ACROSS NRN CT/MA/SRN VT/SRN NH/SRN ME...INLAND/WELL N OF THE ONGOING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...HIGH-RES MODELS -- INCLUDING THE NMM4...THE HRRR...AND A LOCAL NSSL 4KM WRF -- DEPICT THE HEAVIEST ONSHORE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SERN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY. THIS IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO TRACK ENEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH TIME...THE SERN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY REMAINS THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SUSTAINED/HEAVY ONSHORE SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED REDUCED VISIBILITY/BLOWING SNOW. ..GOSS.. 01/03/2014 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... You can pretty much see from the current radar that area of heavy snow is showing very little if any northward movement, almost staying right along the coast. Makes sense. I'll be happy if we can get out of this little lull and get some steady snow back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 You can pretty much see from the current radar that area of heavy snow is showing very little if any northward movement, almost staying right along the coast. Makes sense. I'll be happy if we can get out of this little lull and get some steady snow back! What's ur location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 You can pretty much see from the current radar that area of heavy snow is showing very little if any northward movement, almost staying right along the coast. Makes sense. I'll be happy if we can get out of this little lull and get some steady snow back! There are some signs of heavier echoes developing to our west. I think we will be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 What's ur location I'm in Poughkeepsie. One thing's for sure, it's cold! 4 degrees out there currently. Not fun walking the dog tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 9pm Sparta, NW NJ 11 / 9 with north wind 3-5 Moderate snow 2" measured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 If we get 7 inches vs 12 inches, you think you're really going to notice a big difference visually, esp with blowing and drifting? I don't think so. Thank God this is not rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 If we get 7 inches vs 12 inches, you think you're really going to notice a big difference visually, esp with blowing and drifting? I don't think so. Thank God this is not rain! Pretty wild ride from the looks of it over the next several days too. Looks like snow/ice to rain and 40's from Sunday into Monday followed by a (likely) flash freeze and bitter cold for a couple days after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Yea I'm not convinced that this will last 12+ hrs more.. I think were done just before rush hour at least where I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'm sick of heaviest echoes to our S and E since I moved here 4 years ago. Dark blues almost always so close, yet evades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Yea I'm not convinced that this will last 12+ hrs more.. I think were done just before rush hour at least where I am The latest HRRR map in the NYC obs thread is showing another 3-4" Hard to measure now but a guess that there is 4" down now. So that would be pretty much on for Upton's map. Forecast low of 5 for tonight. We'll see if we can get lower than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Mt Holly NWS updated snow total forecast just bumped me to 10-12 on the map. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Mt Holly NWS updated snow total forecast just bumped me to 10-12 on the map. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Nice. Probably adjusting to snowfall reports combined with calculated ratios combined with what's yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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