UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think I am good and ready for the arctic cold coming. Still sticking with ~4-8" imby though I am very open to that being modified upward to 6-12". I think areas to my North and east will overall do better but it is not far off from being a much bigger deal for all areas. Nice! U should see my wood pile, I only use wood to heat my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice! U should see my wood pile, I only use wood to heat my house That's just my 1-2 week supply. It gets refilled as necessary from the big pile outside as I heat predominantly with wood also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That's just my 1-2 week supply. It gets refilled as necessary from the big pile outside as I heat predominantly with wood also! Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Really hoping for higher amounts and tired of our area getting the shaft. If we miss out the heaviest to our north, east, south, I will wish for spring ASAP. Anything less than 8 inches will be a disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Really hoping for higher amounts and tired of our area getting the shaft. If we miss out the heaviest to our north, east, south, I will wish for spring ASAP. Anything less than 8 inches will be a disappointment. You gotta be kidding me lol... This storm will put most in the region above 20" for the yr with 2.5 solid months to go. We are on pace for a solid winter up here not to mention to constant cold that has been around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 15z SREF Snowfall Mean POU -- 12.6" MSV -- 11.5" HPN -- 10.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 15z SREF Snowfall Mean POU -- 12.6" MSV -- 11.5" HPN -- 10.6" I'm so pumped for this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Most of the HV is .75"+ on the 18z NAM with the brunt of the storm coming with temps in the single digits. 20:1 - 30:1 ratios will probably be common if this is accurate. 12-15" looks to be the rule on the NAM with ratios factored in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You gotta be kidding me lol... This storm will put most in the region above 20" for the yr with 2.5 solid months to go. We are on pace for a solid winter up here not to mention to constant cold that has been around. Sorry for the negativity. This storm looks promising with ratios, even though it will all melt away Monday. You are right, a very solid winter so far and will hopefully continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think it is a reality that we are not likely to be the qpf jackpot area but with the sheer cold, the ratios should make up for it.. I think it will be a nice event starting late tonight and a prolonged event too. I am thinking 6-9" in general, with the usual areas that get the higher amounts closer to 12" If we don't accumulate much during the day tomorrow, then i would go with the lower end of the scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Imby post incoming.... how's it looking for we folks in sussex.... Most of the HV is .75"+ on the 18z NAM with the brunt of the storm coming with temps in the single digits. 20:1 - 30:1 ratios will probably be common if this is accurate. 12-15" looks to be the rule on the NAM with ratios factored in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The map I put out a few hours ago. If I had to make any adjustments to it I'd probably just combine the 4-8" & 6-10" zones into one 6-12" zone and bump the 1-4" zone to 2-5". It's definitely not far off from evolving into a much bigger deal but I think that mainly happens north & east of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think it is a reality that we are not likely to be the qpf jackpot area but with the sheer cold, the ratios should make up for it.. I think it will be a nice event starting late tonight and a prolonged event too. I am thinking 6-9" in general, with the usual areas that get the higher amounts closer to 12" If we don't accumulate much during the day tomorrow, then i would go with the lower end of the scale. Alot is gonna depend on how much WAA snow we receive tonight /tomorrow. If we receive 2-4" tonight/tomorrow then 12" amounts will be wide spread up here. If not then 6-8" will be the common amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The map I put out a few hours ago. If I had to make any adjustments to it I'd probably just combine the 4-8" & 6-10" zones into one 6-12" zone and bump the 1-4" zone to 2-5". It's definitely not far off from evolving into a much bigger deal but I think that mainly happens north & east of NYC. Nice call... 6-10" maybe maybe 12" in some spots for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hey snywx, what do you think the scools will do tomorrow? It tough for them to send kids to school in the middle of a wsw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hey snywx, what do you think the scools will do tomorrow? It tough for them to send kids to school in the middle of a wsw. Who has school tomorrow? My kids school ( Minisink Valley) is closed till Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z Euro Snow map... Enjoy! lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS at 108 looks nothing like the Euro for you guys . Should be watched for the mid Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS at 108 looks nothing like the Euro for you guys . Should be watched for the mid Hudson valley Yeah I've been keeping my eye on it. Its gonna be a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Oops, sorry about that! Some of the districts in Dutchess County go back tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Good evening all, Current temp is 23F. I was out at the local food store in Warwick earlier and people are buzzing about about the pending snow storm. I figure we get atleast 4 inches in my back yard. Anything else will be bonus. Most aggressive call I have seen for my location is from the forecaster DT who has my location in the 8-12 zone. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 21z SREF Snowfall Mean... POU -- 12.1" MSV -- 11.6" HPN -- 9.5" One member is showing 30"+ for MSV & POU... Same member is showing 25" for HPN. Most likely skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 People are saying the latest nam looks bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Latest NAM is a bit drier, but not by much. These small fluctuations are not a big deal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 People are saying the latest nam looks bad? You need to stop reading their analysis in that thread. They only account for what happens in NYC/LI. Believe it or not but our winter weather climate is night/day from theirs. Honestly it isn't even close. 75% of this storm for us will have temps in the single digits which will lead to 20:1 + ratios for our backyards. 0z NAM looks fine for most of the HV and NWNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0z NAM precip output.. MGJ -- .60" SWF -- .59" POU -- .58" FWN -- .51" initial calls for 8-10" still look good as per the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Latest NAM is a bit drier, but not by much. These small fluctuations are not a big deal to me. Agree. Really is grasping at straws. You may get 6 inches or you may get 10. We do know it will snow and be cold. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That NYC thread is an absolute disaster right now! Half of the ppl posting there right now I have never seen post in my life lol.. Looks like the moderators just gave up I am soo happy this forum for us was created! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That NYC thread is an absolute disaster right now! Half of the ppl posting there right now I have never seen post in my life lol.. Looks like the moderators just gave up I am soo happy this forum for us was created! Here here! I still think 6-10 is a god call for most. Ill gladly take it! That's a meaty snowfall! It's going to look so beautiful with all that white gold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That NYC thread is an absolute disaster right now! Half of the ppl posting there right now I have never seen post in my life lol.. Looks like the moderators just gave up I am soo happy this forum for us was created! Yup- it gets hard to read thru any useful info vs some of the other nonsense. We would all love 2 feet for every storm. But in the end Mother Nature is going to do what she's gonna do. Regardless of how much falls- it's going to be a cool storm with snow, wind and frigid temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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