snywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 A chance of snow after 3am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 15. North wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. SaturdaySnow, mainly after 10am. High near 19. Northeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Saturday NightSnow before 1am, then snow and sleet. Low around 18. North wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. SundayA slight chance of snow before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Northwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Evening update from Walt Drag at Mt Holly NWS A CONCERN IS NOT MUCH HAPPENING S OF I-80 SATURDAY MORNINGALLOWING EASIER COASTAL PLAIN WARMING THERE.SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BE BRIEFLY BE S/S+ VARIETY IN THE 21Z-02Z TIMEFRAME FROM KPHL NORTH. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL MAKE THIS A MUCHFLUFFIER SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND N I78...ESPECIALLY I80REGION. OUR SNOW TOTAL MAY NEED TO BE SLIGHTLY INCREASED ALONG AND NOF I-80 TO AROUND 10 INCHES BUT AM NOT LIKELY TO INITIATE THATINCREASE ON THIS SHIFT DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND WE ALREADYHAVE A WARNING OF 6-8 INCHES GOING. I DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH SLEET ORFREEZING RAIN NORTH OF I-80...MORE LIKELY A FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTERTHE PRIMARY LIFT PASSES THAT REGION AFTER 06Z.AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOWFALL 1-2"/HOUR IS ANTICIPATED IN E PA AND NNJNEAR 00Z/15.WSW IS POSTED AND HOLDS FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 24hrs later and the NAM is quiet different from yesterday's 0z run! That model will make you pull your hair out again and again and the worst part is we know it! lol So is it correcting? Over correcting? Lets see what the rest of the 0z data shows including the various short term high res models now coming into range. Still sticking with 5-8" but most admit the NAM makes me a tad nervous. Typical winter forecasting in NY, NJ, PA region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Rgem came in snowier lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Rgem came in snowier lol First evidence against the NAM ... for now ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Gfs is almost identical to previous runs so far... Throw that nam out Slightly warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM may have over corrected! Not an uncommon occurrence! Amount of CAA the occurs overnight into early tomorrow will have to be watched. If that under performs then a warmer solution to some degree becomes more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM may have over corrected! Not an uncommon occurrence! Amount of CAA the occurs overnight into early tomorrow will have to be watched. If that under performs then a warmer solution to some degree becomes more likely. It's actually radiational cooling but I agree.. I still think almost all of the Hudson valley remains snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 If the high to the NW is real then the flow around it should funnel colder air at the surface from upstate NY and NNE down this way. That is CAA. Though a subtle form as winds are light and the air just slowly seeps in. The calmer conditions with clear skies will also promote some radiational cooling as well. But for true CAD we need CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Well it is cloudy here so my temp isn't really dropping but the dewpoint is definitely ticking down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Well it is cloudy here so my temp isn't really dropping but the dewpoint is definitely ticking down. I'm down to 23 from 25 about an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Without strong winds in front or behind the frontal passage it's almost impossible to tell where that cold air is...have faith it'll be here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 21 currently in highland lakes. Hopefully bottom out around 17 overnight. Going to be an interesting day tomorrow. Local nyc news has me in the sweet spot for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Noaa is still calling for 7-13 at my job, West Point ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This thread should be alive tomorrow... If it's ok with weather fox can we do a separate OBS thread for the Hudson valley so were not flooding the NYC metro with our snow OBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Well it is cloudy here so my temp isn't really dropping but the dewpoint is definitely ticking down. Lower dew points are a good indicator the cold dense air is seeping in! The dew points may respond quicker / more than the air temps thus setting the ability the for temps to wet bulb down several degrees when precip starts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Well it is cloudy here so my temp isn't really dropping but the dewpoint is definitely ticking down. Lower dew points are a good indicator the cold dense air is seeping in! The dew points may respond quicker / more than the air temps thus setting the ability the for temps to wet bulb down several degrees when precip starts tomorrow. That's my thinking too. Hopefully it continues to seep on in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Rgem is coming way colder... Frozen for almost everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Temps in far upstate NY running 5-15 below zero with dps 15-25 below zero. Near Albany temps 5-10 above with dps near or below 0. Let that seep this way. The more we establish the cold the more it has a chance to survive any push of waa that may occur tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 That's my thinking too. Hopefully it continues to seep on in! Hopefully the dew does not get too low to allow a lot of virga when the radar starts lighting up. But yes, bring on the frigid air and save us from the WAA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The front is right on our doorstep creeping south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 GGEM00z is a monster snow storm for all Hudson valley... Colder, wetter, minimal change over to some sleet or FZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Wow POU is right in the darkest blue. Sigh.....if only it verified..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 POU is right in the darkest blue. Sigh.....if only it verified..... I love the GGEM in this time frame... Not to mention it has been the most consistent IMO... It was showing almost an identical set up with the exception of a stronger coastal 3 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hopefully the dew does not get too low to allow a lot of virga when the radar starts lighting up. But yes, bring on the frigid air and save us from the WAA! No virga with this storm... Already have flakes flying here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Good morning, Light snow is falling with a temp 15F. Calling for upto 9 inches today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Good morning, Light snow is falling with a temp 15F. Calling for upto 9 inches today Wow you are cold up there a few miles north of me and 500 feet higher. 21 / 17 here with a few flurries witnessed. Radar light and broken but the general trend of it looks to extrapolate nicely for the N&W areas early on in this event. Still concerned about warming and flirting with sleet at some point during the evening onward but time will tell. Still sticking with 5-8" in my locale. 8-10" up your way looks good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 19 w/ Lgt Snow falling... 1" of snow on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 20 degrees, snowng lightly. Dusting so far. Oak ridge, nj. Nwest morris county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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