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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - Discussion


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  • A chance of snow after 3am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 15. North wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

SaturdaySnow, mainly after 10am. High near 19. Northeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Saturday NightSnow before 1am, then snow and sleet. Low around 18. North wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

SundayA slight chance of snow before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Northwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

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Evening update from Walt Drag at Mt Holly NWS

 

A CONCERN IS NOT MUCH HAPPENING S OF I-80 SATURDAY MORNING
ALLOWING EASIER COASTAL PLAIN WARMING THERE.

SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BE BRIEFLY BE S/S+ VARIETY IN THE 21Z-02Z TIME
FRAME FROM KPHL NORTH. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL MAKE THIS A MUCH
FLUFFIER SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION NEAR AND N I78...ESPECIALLY I80
REGION
. OUR SNOW TOTAL MAY NEED TO BE SLIGHTLY INCREASED ALONG AND N
OF I-80 TO AROUND 10 INCHES BUT AM NOT LIKELY TO INITIATE THAT
INCREASE ON THIS SHIFT DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND WE ALREADY
HAVE A WARNING OF 6-8 INCHES GOING. I DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF I-80...MORE LIKELY A FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
THE PRIMARY LIFT PASSES THAT REGION AFTER 06Z.

AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOWFALL 1-2"/HOUR IS ANTICIPATED IN E PA AND NNJ
NEAR 00Z/15.

WSW IS POSTED AND HOLDS FOR NOW.

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24hrs later and the NAM is quiet different from yesterday's 0z run! That model will make you pull your hair out again and again and the worst part is we know it! lol So is it correcting? Over correcting? Lets see what the rest of the 0z data shows including the various short term high res models now coming into range. Still sticking with 5-8" but most admit the NAM makes me a tad nervous. Typical winter forecasting in NY, NJ, PA region.

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NAM may have over corrected! Not an uncommon occurrence! Amount of CAA the occurs overnight into early tomorrow will have to be watched. If that under performs then a warmer solution to some degree becomes more likely.

It's actually radiational cooling but I agree.. I still think almost all of the Hudson valley remains snow

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If the high to the NW is real then the flow around it should funnel colder air at the surface from upstate NY and NNE down this way. That is CAA. Though a subtle form as winds are light and the air just slowly seeps in. The calmer conditions with clear skies will also promote some radiational cooling as well. But for true CAD we need CAA.

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Well it is cloudy here so my temp isn't really dropping but the dewpoint is definitely ticking down.

Lower dew points are a good indicator the cold dense air is seeping in! The dew points may respond quicker / more than the air temps thus setting the ability the for temps to wet bulb down several degrees when precip starts tomorrow.

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Well it is cloudy here so my temp isn't really dropping but the dewpoint is definitely ticking down.

Lower dew points are a good indicator the cold dense air is seeping in! The dew points may respond quicker / more than the air temps thus setting the ability the for temps to wet bulb down several degrees when precip starts tomorrow.

That's my thinking too. Hopefully it continues to seep on in!

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Temps in far upstate NY running 5-15 below zero with dps 15-25 below zero. Near Albany temps 5-10 above with dps near or below 0. Let that seep this way. The more we establish the cold the more it has a chance to survive any push of waa that may occur tomorrow night.

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Good morning,

 

Light snow is falling with a temp 15F.

Calling for upto 9 inches today

Wow you are cold up there a few miles north of me and 500 feet higher. 

 

21 / 17 here with a few flurries witnessed. Radar light and broken but the general trend of it looks to extrapolate nicely for the N&W areas early on in this event. Still concerned about warming and flirting with sleet at some point during the evening onward but time will tell. Still sticking with 5-8" in my locale. 8-10" up your way looks good too.

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