IrishRob17 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I remember quite a few clippers hitting the northern areas. This yr just seems soo different then the past 3-4 yrs. Fully agree. In recent years they have not worked out but years ago we had good luck with clippers up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Fully agree. In recent years they have not worked out but years ago we had good luck with clippers up here. Yeah I remember many many clippers affecting us. You can just tell by the amount of lake effect going on that this isn't like the past few yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Good afternoon, New models looks to hammer the interior NW sections. Exepcting 10-14 of snow with some sleet possible. Regards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Good afternoon, New models looks to hammer the interior NW sections. Exepcting 10-14 of snow with some sleet possible. Regards Should be fun to track tomorrow. Hopefully someone in our area can cash in on some banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Should be fun to track tomorrow. Hopefully someone in our area can cash in on some banding. What are you calling for? I am staying with 6" for KPOU. I could see KSWF and areas of Orange Co around your hood doing better than that though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What are you calling for? I am staying with 6" for KPOU. I could see KSWF and areas of Orange Co around your hood doing better than that though.... 6-10" is the safe bet. If the NAM is correct or banding sets up tomorrow night over the area then I can see someone ending up with 18".. We all know how intense and how fast you can pile up under those bands and the NAM is starting to signal our area under these bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What are you calling for? I am staying with 6" for KPOU. I could see KSWF and areas of Orange Co around your hood doing better than that though.... I'm hoping for 6" too with more than that (which is likely) a bonus IMO for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm hoping for 6" too with more than that (which is likely) a bonus IMO for MBY. Yeah, i think that is a good number to set your expectations with. I just don't feel good about how long we hold out versus flip to IP.. We all know that this area can often hold out longer than modeled, but I don't feel too bullish about it happening on this occasion with no blocking to keep the arctic high locked in...Perhaps we will be pleasantly surprised. I seem to enjoy the anticipation from the tracking of the storm in the days preceding the storm as much as the actual event these days, so it is all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Good afternoon, New models looks to hammer the interior NW sections. Exepcting 10-14 of snow with some sleet possible. Regards You are looking golden up there in Vernon at 1400'. Being a bit further south and lower (~900') I still feel comfortable with 5-8" with the wild card being sleet. If no or little sleet 8 or more inches if sleet becomes prolonged or heavy then closer to 4-6". Not very concerned about freezing rain. I know some model data suggest it could be significant (ie 0.25"+) but I just do not see that as a widespread issue in this setup. To strong of flows / dynamics at various levels. Its either all snow / sleet or rain as I see it. Meaning when the battle between cold air hanging tough vs warm air trying to penetrate begins one or the other will overwhelmingly win at any given location. Now a narrow transition of freezing rain may occur but it may not last long or it my be transient as the transition line moves throughout the second half of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 6-10" is the safe bet. If the NAM is correct or banding sets up tomorrow night over the area then I can see someone ending up with 18".. We all know how intense and how fast you can pile up under those bands and the NAM is starting to signal our area under these bands. That would be something if that verifies. One thing we have to watch is the snow ratios. We'll see how much warm air gets in here at the mid levels, that could knock it down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That would be something if that verifies. One thing we have to watch is the snow ratios. We'll see how much warm air gets in here at the mid levels, that could knock it down some. I think if your anywhere north of Rockland county you shouldn't concern yourself with mixing.. Maybe an hour or two at the tail end but the surface temps will be so low I think the line will stay south of orange most the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 15Z SREFs are showing 11" mean snowfall for KPOU but there are quite a few plumes that are higher... http://www.spc.noaa....35&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 15z SREF Snowfall Mean POU- 10.7" MSV- 11.9" HPN- 6.4" For a mean thats pretty impressive plus many members are above the mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NWS Albany have just put up winter storm warnings calling for 6-10" Dutchess Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NWS Albany have just put up winter storm warnings calling for 6-10" Dutchess Co Was just typing that! Personally I think we'll end up towards the lower end of that in POU, but that's just my jaded opinion as in almost every storm we end of falling short of predictions here (at least for the past 2.5 winters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Was just typing that! Personally I think we'll end up towards the lower end of that in POU, but that's just my jaded opinion as in almost every storm we end of falling short of predictions here (at least for the past 2.5 winters). Yeah, why is that? Sick and tired of getting the short end ALWAYS! Is there like a snow curse over Poughkeepsie? Watch we only get 4 inches followed by a sleet fest for 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah, why is that? Sick and tired of getting the short end ALWAYS! Is there like a snow curse over Poughkeepsie? Watch we only get 4 inches followed by a sleet fest for 10 hours. Doesn't help being right on the Hudson either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Still no warning for Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Still no warning for Orange County It will come....I promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Still no warning for Orange County CTZ005-006-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-140545- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0004.131214T1100Z-131215T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0005.131214T1100Z-131215T1100Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC- WESTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 437 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ALONG WITH A TENTH TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF ICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 CTZ005-006-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-140545- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0004.131214T1100Z-131215T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0005.131214T1100Z-131215T1100Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC- WESTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 437 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ALONG WITH A TENTH TO 1/4 OF AN INCH OF ICE.[/quote Lol just as posted that they issued it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Pou is a notorious snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Pou is a notorious snow hole Why so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Good Evening all, Mt Holly NWS has issued a winter storm warning for my county for 6-8 inches of snow with some ice. Point and click is 6-10 inches. NBC NY news has me in the 8-12 zone. I am riding the NBC train Tomorrow will interesting to watch the radar & ops in the area etc. I assume we can bust low or high depending of when the warm push gets back to this area and when & if we switch over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Why so? I assume being on the Hudson river with the some higher elevations to the north, west and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 I am counting on the following late tomorrow in bold from the Mt Holly NWS discussion THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE STRONGEST UVV DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONTHROUGH EVENING PERIOD AND THIS IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATESARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WARM LAYER...IE ABOVEFREEZING...ABOVE THE SFC PUSHING QUICKLY NWD DURING THE EVENING ANDOVERNIGHT. WITH COLD AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD AT THE SFC DUE TOAFORE-MENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH PRES...SNOW SHOULD CHANGE OVER TOFREEZING RAIN FOR MOST AREAS BY AROUND 06Z...EXCEPT PERHAPS THEPOCONOS AND FAR NW NJ. SIGNIFICANT ICING...A QUARTER INCH OR MORE...IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING. ALSO...THEREIS A POTENTIAL FOR FRONTO-GENESIS AND PRECIP BANDING DURING THEEVENING AND HENCE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looks like Upton bumped up totals for this side of the county... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looks like Upton bumped up totals for this side of the county... They still seem to think a changeover period I just can't see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 They still seem to think a changeover period I just can't see it Its possible.. never under estimate the surge of mid level warm air especially near the Hudson. Sleet is a good possibility on the eastern & southern part of the county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Why so? Extemely low elevation, proximity to the Hudson & maybe even possible shadowing from both the Taconics to your east and the Catskills to your west.. Same reason why areas like Monroe, Harriman jackpot soo often.. They sit on the east face of the Hudson Highlands with decent elevation and cash in on terrain enhancement. You can see it on Uptons snowfall map.. That area without a doubt is the snow belt of Uptons CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.