UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Still a steay light snow.. Radar looks like I should have cloudy sky's lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Steady light snow here, 24 degrees. Nice little car-topper. Good call JC! Still don't buy the 4-6" with this next system, Upton suggesting 2-4" which seems to be more in line with guidance. After a brief warmup, both the Euro and the GFS seem to agree that the cold returns next week in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Looks like it could remain stormy as well. Several Euro ensemble members suggesting the possibility of another snow event around the 25th. GFS has some signals too. Looks like the beat goes on. Steady light snow here. Dusting down so far. Uptons AFD for Monday night/ Tues. event. .ESSENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR THIS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE WITH A SMALL TIME SCALE EVENT. MODELS AGREE WITH A GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH...TRENDED DOWN FROM 12Z RUNS ON SATURDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS WOULD EQUATE TO 10 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH A LOW CHANCE OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WHICH SOME SREF MEMBERS STILL SHOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Just got back from dinner- moderate snow here with about a quarter inch new. This is the 4th night in a row seeing snow - tomorrow would be 5 nights if it happens again- what a run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yeah tonight definitely overperformed, whatever that means. Couple tenths new and formidable light snow... not just glimpses of pixie dust which this could have easily been. Looking at radar, it seems like there's some orographic enhancement going on over northern Dutchess and southwestern Columbia, centered around Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 21z SREF Snow Plumes.. MSV - 3.0" POU - 3.1" HPN - 3.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I don't think the 12z Euro supported 3-6", as Albany's AFD calls for. It was like .2 or .3" QPF. 18z GFS came in a bit wetter so now about the same as the Euro.-8 isotherm is over the area which often enhances ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 -8 isotherm is over the area which often enhances ratios Yup, snow growth may be somewhat favorable. The 4km NAM had over .5" QPF for eastern Orange and the remainder of the lower HV... approaching an inch toward HPN/Armonk and into Litchfield. The regular resolution NAM was drier. Could be some surprises. On another note, the moon and stars are shining through some thin low-level clouds and it's still flurrying. I would guess stray flakes are being carried from the NW? .4" new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yup, snow growth may be somewhat favorable. The 4km NAM had over .5" QPF for eastern Orange and the remainder of the lower HV... approaching an inch toward HPN/Armonk and into Litchfield. The regular resolution NAM was drier. Could be some surprises. On another note, the moon and stars are shining through some thin low-level clouds and it's still flurrying. I would guess stray flakes are being carried from the NW? .4" new We were out skating before (after the snow ended) and there was some freezing drizzle down here by the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 0z RGEM looks to have 3-6" for parts of western Orange county & Sullivan county. Also 2-4" for parts of Rockland & Westchester counties.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 0z RGEM looks to have 3-6" for parts of western Orange county & Sullivan county. Also 2-4" for parts of Rockland & Westchester counties..I'll take it- a few more inches would put me around 75 for the season. Truly remarkable. Sounds like after a thaw out later this week, may have a shot at some more before month is out. And we still have March to go to add on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I'll take it- a few more inches would put me around 75 for the season. Truly remarkable. Sounds like after a thaw out later this week, may have a shot at some more before month is out. And we still have March to go to add on. Yeah many of us here in OC have an outside shot at 90-100" this yr. Last time I think that happened was 02-03 season. 09-10 was pretty close for you guys on that side of the county with 85-90" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yeah many of us here in OC have an outside shot at 90-100" this yr. Last time I think that happened was 02-03 season. 09-10 was pretty close for you guys on that side of the county with 85-90" Yeah that was an awesome year for sure - we definitely still have time for that - couple more big ones and we can get there. Hopefully tonight late down a few, and then we still have 11 days to go this month. And with march and early April you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yeah many of us here in OC have an outside shot at 90-100" this yr. Last time I think that happened was 02-03 season. 09-10 was pretty close for you guys on that side of the county with 85-90" Yeah that was an awesome year for sure - we definitely still have time for that - couple more big ones and we can get there. Hopefully tonight late down a few, and then we still have 11 days to go this month. And with march and early April you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I see upton is going with 3-6 for the Hudson valley for this next system. Would be another decent event if it verifies for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Which means 7 or 8 for us locally as has been the trend with us jackpotting this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 You guys happen to see the 12z NAM .. its pretty wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z NAM MGJ -- .54" SWF -- .53" POU -- .46" FWN -- .56" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Which means 7 or 8 for us locally as has been the trend with us jackpotting this winter The way things are going lately, nothing would surprise me. Between the snow pack and tonight most likely being our 5th night in a row seeing snowfall around here, it's really incredible. The only time I've seen anything like this was over 15 yrs ago on a trip to ski Beaver Creek and Vail in Colorado - 7 ft of snow fell in the 7 days I was there. That was simply surreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z NAM MGJ -- .54" SWF -- .53" POU -- .46" FWN -- .56" You happen to have MSV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 You guys happen to see the 12z NAM .. its pretty wet. No doubt - seems like every system wants to over perform for us now. Guess we will see how this one goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z NAM MGJ -- .54" SWF -- .53" POU -- .46" FWN -- .56" Would you mind including MMU on these? Please. The main model threads always direct all attention the the city and coast. Tough to gage my area some time. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 You happen to have MSV? MSV - .40" Would you mind including MMU on these? Please. The main model threads always direct all attention the the city and coast. Tough to gage my area some time. Thanks! MMU -- .82" That main thread is unreadable.. Jetpens, Earthlight are pretty much the only ones I read down there the rest just clutter up the thread with weenie wish cast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 MSV - .40" MMU -- .82" That main thread is unreadable.. Jetpens, Earthlight are pretty much the only ones I read down there the rest just clutter up the thread with weenie wish cast . Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 MSV - .40" MMU -- .82" That main thread is unreadable.. Jetpens, Earthlight are pretty much the only ones I read down there the rest just clutter up the thread with weenie wish cast . Thanks! Wow. MMU is showing that much? I am in rockaway. Maybe 5-10 miles north west (at most) of there. This could be a sneaky little storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Thanks! Wow. MMU is showing that much? I am in rockaway. Maybe 5-10 miles north west (at most) of there. This could be a sneaky little storm! Keep in mind its the NAM.. As of now its still a 2-4" storm for u but lets see what the rest of the 12z guidance has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Keep in mind its the NAM.. As of now its still a 2-4" storm for u but lets see what the rest of the 12z guidance has to say. Agreed 100%. But even if I cut that total in half it's still looking like a nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Keep in mind its the NAM.. As of now its still a 2-4" storm for u but lets see what the rest of the 12z guidance has to say. Starts a narrow SW-NE band of enhanced precip down near MMU which points right at Eastern Orange Cty. but abruptly ends near the state border. significant difference in amount of snow over a short difference depending how far NE that band stretches in truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The 4km NAM is still much wetter than its parent, but shows some significant downsloping into the northern Hudson Valley and again into the CT River Valley. Great for just about everyone though. Chietanen, that's interesting actually... was that a case of the moisture being so low to the ground that there were no ice nuclei? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Starts a narrow SW-NE band of enhanced precip down near MMU which points right at Eastern Orange Cty. but abruptly ends near the state border. significant difference in amount of snow over a short difference depending how far NE that band stretches in truth It will be interesting too see what the HRRR and the RAP show later. Going out later to find a roof snow shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 No doubt - seems like every system wants to over perform for us now. Guess we will see how this one goes. Is there any scientific or meteorological reason that nearly every single system this year has trended better/stronger in the near term? It's really quite remarkable. The 4km NAM is still much wetter than its parent, but shows some significant downsloping into the northern Hudson Valley and again into the CT River Valley. Great for just about everyone though. Chietanen, that's interesting actually... was that a case of the moisture being so low to the ground that there were no ice nuclei? It was a really fine mist. I was thinking some low level moisture as you suggested. I don't really envy these school districts. Most are out or nearly out of snow days at this point. Tomorrow's event looks moderate but the timing will be high impact. Plus the storminess looks to continue after the brief warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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