snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Here we go again... smh A chance of snow, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday NightSnow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 24. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. MondaySnow, freezing rain, and sleet before 9am, then rain and sleet between 9am and noon, then a chance of rain after noon. High near 37. East wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Would u mind posting an accurate map that you seem to be getting your references from or the site your getting your info off of please...cause I've only lived in new windsor 1 year.. I also lived in Middletown, and highland falls and rarely saw 50" inches of snow at an annual average I said Highland Mills Not Highland Falls.. And many many ppl would agree that you can tack on 2-3" to these averages. Doesn't really account for elevation changes which are drastic on both the east and west side of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I said Highland Mills Not Highland Falls.. And many many ppl would agree that you can tack on 2-3" to these averages. Doesn't really account for elevation changes which are drastic on both the east and west side of the county.If you look at the past 10 years or so you maybe able to tack on a little but overall I still find that map rather accurate with the exception of the elevation changes as you mentioned. We've talked about this for years, your elevation often helps you out a bit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 If you look at the past 10 years or so you maybe able to tack on a little but overall I still find that map rather accurate with the exception of the elevation changes as you mentioned. We've talked about this for years, your elevation often helps you out a bit there. Yes i def agree.. 50"+ is primarily for ppl above 750' or so. Like I said earlier in the main thread that 95% of the county falls in the 45" range. Orangecountysnowz says that county as a whole averages below 40" which is extremely inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 If you look at the past 10 years or so you maybe able to tack on a little but overall I still find that map rather accurate with the exception of the elevation changes as you mentioned. We've talked about this for years, your elevation often helps you out a bit there. And it looks like Upton adjusted the map for LI as you can see a small spot of 30-35".. Probably due to the last 5 yrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 hey bud how much did you end up with? nothing here... an icy glaze on the deck and a pile of sleet on the patio table. haha. Ripping snow in highland lakes.Rd 2 in the wings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I said Highland Mills Not Highland Falls.. And many many ppl would agree that you can tack on 2-3" to these averages. Doesn't really account for elevation changes which are drastic on both the east and west side of the county. I understand I was saying that I had lived in highland falls and middletown... I just haven't experienced on man average what that map shows... And from most accounts of the maps I've researched I found that Orange County has fallen between the 35-45" inch but i don't really wanna discuss it anymore cause it's a silly topic to argue about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I understand I was saying that I had lived in highland falls and middletown... I just haven't experienced on man average what that map shows... And from most accounts of the maps I've researched I found that Orange County has fallen between the 35-45" inch but i don't really wanna discuss it anymore cause it's a silly topic to argue about No one is arguing... Just providing you the map that was established by the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yes i def agree.. 50"+ is primarily for ppl above 750' or so. Like I said earlier in the main thread that 95% of the county falls in the 45" range. Orangecountysnowz says that county as a whole averages below 40" which is extremely inaccurate. I'm with ya. That change on LI is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm with ya. That change on LI is interesting. Yeah it def is... They have cashed in though on some good snows the last few yrs. Whats your average Rob? 43-45"? And you sit at around 400' right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yeah it def is... They have cashed in though on some good snows the last few yrs. Whats your average Rob? 43-45"? And you sit at around 400' right? Yep and yep. 385' but I'm tucked in close to the Walkill so I'm in a lower spot compared to the area right around me. I think my average is 44". I remember us discussing this last year I think and after adding my records I found the Upton map to be spot on for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yep and yep. 385' but I'm tucked in close to the Walkill so I'm in a lower spot compared to the area right around me. I think my average is 44". I remember us discussing this last year I think and after adding my records I found the Upton map to be spot on for me. yeah I remember us discussing it a few times. 44" seems legit for your area. Uptons map is pretty accurate with the exception of elevated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrad Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I suspect that enhanced area of 30-35 on LI is due to the location of the NWS Upton Office. It looks pretty close to Upton to me, where the NWS mets properly measure snow (on a snowboard/every 6 hours). I bet quite a bit of fallen snow gets missed by other observers on Long Island that melts or gets compacted, especially in changeover events before it can be measured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Here we go again... smh A chance of snow, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday NightSnow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 24. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. MondaySnow, freezing rain, and sleet before 9am, then rain and sleet between 9am and noon, then a chance of rain after noon. High near 37. East wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. this second disturbance was always our better chance of accumulating snow. not to often do those rain to snow scenerios happen in this area. more times than not the precip races out of here faster than modeled. reverse goes for over running events, usually the precip is here faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 All I had left @ 3pm from last nights blizzard lol smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 More snow cometh for Sunday night as per the 12Z global ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I suspect that enhanced area of 30-35 on LI is due to the location of the NWS Upton Office. It looks pretty close to Upton to me, where the NWS mets properly measure snow (on a snowboard/every 6 hours). I bet quite a bit of fallen snow gets missed by other observers on Long Island that melts or gets compacted, especially in changeover events before it can be measured. Thank you very much. That is 100% correct. Its basically the only station on Long Island with an accurate long term snowfall record. This is something I've been trying to convey for a while, (not always successfully) but you expressed it exactly right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Thank you very much. That is 100% correct. Its basically the only station on Long Island with an accurate long term snowfall record. This is something I've been trying to convey for a while, (not always successfully) but you expressed it exactly right. Whats your average out there on the north shore... 35" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Whats your average out there on the north shore... 35" ? I'd guess about 32"...its a tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 More snow cometh for Sunday night as per the 12Z global ensemble. Very brief period of snow sunday evening - don't take a nap---- Until we get the indicies into a more favorable position its going to be VERY difficult to have any significant snowstorms around here - a neg EPO has a hard time doing it by itself.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'd guess about 32"...its a tough call. Yeah I've seen you mention it before but couldn't recall the exact number.. I would think once east of the Nassau/Suffolk border on the north shore averages would increase a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yeah I've seen you mention it before but couldn't recall the exact number.. I would think once east of the Nassau/Suffolk border on the north shore averages would increase a few inches. Sorry If I've been a shrill jerk lately...life 'n stuff, you know...I apologize to everyone I was discourteous to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Sorry If I've been a shrill jerk lately...life 'n stuff, you know...I apologize to everyone I was discourteous to. Its all good.. No hard feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Currently 27/24... Not as dry as I thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 Good evening weather fans, Mt Holly NWS has issued a winter weather advisory for 2 inches of snow & sleet for late tomorrow for Sussex County. My faith is not changed after last night. Goal 100 inches of snow this winter! The active weather pattern continues. Going out Jack Hole, WY in 6 weeks in search of Powder! Regards, DS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 hey bud how much did you end up with? nothing here... an icy glaze on the deck and a pile of sleet on the patio table. haha. About the same as you. I was up at 6 AM and everything was a sheet of ice. If I was going to log a snow total it would be a trace. It was sleeting with snow at a good clip prior to when I went to bed. I was expecting more snow last night. Mt Holly NWS provided a solid forecast though. Hopefully this is the last bust of the season. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Currently 24/20 out there... Still not as dry as I thought it would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 Currently 24/20 out there... Still not as dry as I thought it would be Upton NWS is going rather big( for this event) for far N & W burbs with 2-4.. Hoping that we get the mins for snow. temp 22F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Upton NWS is going rather big( for this event) for far N & W burbs with 2-4.. Hoping that we get the mins for snow. temp 22F and 1 inch for NYC attm. I could see it trending up a little and to be washed way when the precip changes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Upton NWS is going rather big( for this event) for far N & W burbs with 2-4.. Hoping that we get the mins for snow. temp 22F I know the NAM is worthless but its been trending northward each run with the front end thump. As of right now I think 1" followed by ip/zr. I guess time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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