HeinzGuy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 7.5 here in Kingston. Lightening up now. Tough to measure with some blowing/drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Keeping my expectations low. I read reports that the 2nd rd looks good and bad. Short range good/bad etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Keeping my expectations low. I read reports that the 2nd rd looks good and bad. Short range good/bad etc. It's been a heck of a storm so far even an additional 4-6 would yield some really nice snow intensities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Check radar sounding down by Delaware, moisture offshore is great it's starting to build moisture inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm not liking the way the radar looks south of us I think it's to early to be concerned or excited. I do like its convective look and steadily increasing coverage / expansion. I saw WXRisk mention a a report of 6" in 2.5 hrs with the activity in VA. There is a lot of energy there. Tonight could be another high performer but exactly where is still the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Did a rough core sample - 0.7" of liquid on 7.1" frozen. Almost exactly 10:1 ratios which makes sense... several hours of light poorly formed flakes and a few periods of cataclysmic ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18z NAM gives many in the area .75"+ of precip tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18z NAM gives many in the area .75"+ of precip tonight.. What's ratios look like for tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18z NAM gives many in the area .75"+ of precip tonight.. hrr gives me 8-10 lol. all this is new precip for me since its from 18z. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=hrrr_jet:&runtime=2014021318&plot_type=acsnw_t3sfc&fcst=15&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hopefully we don't see that deformation band shift east as sometimes can be the case at crunch time. The last few runs of the RAP as well as the recent HRRR seem to favor the eastern side of the Hudson into western NE, a slight shift east from where most of the global models were favoring. We ended up with about 8.25" new snow here. Took several measurements and that was about the average. edit: And, just like that, the 19z HRRR now focuses it right over the Hudson. There may some really crazy totals in this band if it behaves as modeled (not for location which we know is up in the air, but for intensity). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick5892 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Total from first batch. 11". Did very well. It all came down in about 4 hours tho. Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 ^^ Y'all on the west side of the river can keep it if you want. Really. I won't mind. Actually it would bother me but only just so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Let's not forget an addition 8-12+ isn't out of the question... I currently have 10" and my forcast from NWS is 18-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Let's not forget an addition 8-12+ isn't out of the question... I currently have 10" and my forcast from NWS is 18-24" Not at all, in fact it will likely happen for some people in this forum. I'm looking at a snow map from the 19z HRRR and it's got a spot of 40" on the Putnam/Dutchess border (new snow). Not gonna happen to that extent, but it's fun to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not at all, in fact it will likely happen for some people in this forum. I'm looking at a snow map from the 19z HRRR and it's got a spot of 40" on the Putnam/Dutchess border (new snow). Not gonna happen to that extent, but it's fun to look at I feel pretty good about tonight after seeing the 18z models pretty spit on with the dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Upton mentions the chance for thunderstorms in their updated forecast, gotta love that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Upton mentions the chance for thunderstorms in their updated forecast, gotta love that! They said 4-9 additional and 16-22 total lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 They said 4-9 additional and 16-22 total lol Why do you find that funny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Albany AFD regarding tonight: HOWEVER...THE H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NC/VA ISBECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THISCLOSED LOW WILL CAPTURE THE SFC CYCLONE...AND ALLOW VERY HEAVYSNOWFALL TO RETURN TONIGHT. OUR CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR ANORTH TO SOUTH OR SLIGHTLY N/NW TO S/SE ORIENTED MESOSCALESNOWBAND TO HIT MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.BASED ON CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA THESE MESOSCALE SNOWBANDS AREVERY LIKELY WITH THE H700 CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING FROM ERNPA/NJ/DELMARVA REGION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z/FRI.ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW IS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT PIVOTINGMESOSCALE SNOWBAND IS LIKELY TO SET UP. ALSO...THE LEFT FRONT QUADOR LEFT EXIT REGION REGION OF 130-140+ KT JET STREAK WILL BEMOVING ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH STRONG OMEGA/UPWARD VERTICALMOTION OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.A QUICK CHECK OF CROSS-SECTIONS DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM THENAM AND GFS TONIGHT SHOW STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES WITHSTEEPLY SLOPED FGEN BENEATH NEGATIVE EPV /AT 400-500 HPA/ BTWN 00Z-06Z WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE SYSTEM...AND THE OPTIMAL DENDRITICGROWTH ZONE /-10C TO -16C/ INTERSECTS THIS AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND OMEGADURING THIS TIME FRAME. SOME HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3INCHES LOOK LIKELY. THE STRONG MESOSCALE BANDING IN ASSOCIATIONWITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLESOF THUNDER IN THE HEAVIER SNOW /THUNDER SNOW !/. SOME CG LTGSTRIKES CONTINUE OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION LATE THISAFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not at all, in fact it will likely happen for some people in this forum. I'm looking at a snow map from the 19z HRRR and it's got a spot of 40" on the Putnam/Dutchess border (new snow). Not gonna happen to that extent, but it's fun to look at I saw that too. Very very aggressive with even 1 to 1.5" plus in parts of NJ. Lot of energy with these storm still to pass thru so would not be surprised it the backside over performs but not sure is see another 18". But it seems 4-8 / 6-12 is quite possible for areas that max out in those bands. LHV on north could do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 For Suffolk, Long Island URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY334 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014...STRONG WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT...NYZ078-080-140630-/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140214T1100Z/NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-334 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5INCHES...HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 11TO 18 INCHES.* SNOWFALL RATES...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR TONIGHT.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPHEARLY...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 20 TO30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH LATE TONIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.* TIMING...LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRANSITION TOSLEET AND SNOW LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOWAROUND MIDNIGHT AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. A FEW RUMBLES OFTHUNDER ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATETONIGHT.* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. THE HEAVY WETSNOW WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.WEAK...FLAT ROOF STRUCTURES MAY ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO COLLAPSEIF NOT CLEARED OF SNOW AND ICE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Additional totals for tonight on RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html This HRRR LOOP is insane we get absolutely painted for an addition 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Radar is starting to fill in nicely. I think it's going to look very impressive in 2-3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Radar is starting to fill in nicely. I think it's going to look very impressive in 2-3 hours. U read NOAAS recent forecast disc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 U read NOAAS recent forecast disc No, I did not. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwest NJ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I hope I can get into these heavy bands in Sussex NJ. I wonder how far west they will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 No, I did not. Link? http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Starting to get it's act together: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0Q-1-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think were all in for a treat...first person to hear thundersnow buys drinks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.