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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - Discussion

Animal

By Animal,
in New York City Metro

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
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Good luck to you guys up in the NW burbs ! What sometimes ends up happening when cold air hangs on a bit longer is that you get a 6"+ accumulation followed by a wintry mix and then not as much rain as expected. Sometimes the "drenching rain that will melt all the accumulation" never ends up happening, or only melts a few inches of it

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snywx

snywx

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  On 2/1/2014 at 4:36 PM, WintersGrasp said:

Good luck to you guys up in the NW burbs ! What sometimes ends up happening when cold air hangs on a bit longer is that you get a 6"+ accumulation followed by a wintry mix and then not as much rain as expected. Sometimes the "drenching rain that will melt all the accumulation" never ends up happening, or only melts a few inches of it

 

It very rarely rains with these setups up here. Its literally night and day in comparison to the coast with swfes. We may end as some fzdz but the snow usually comes in like a wall and over produces. 

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rgwp96

rgwp96

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  On 2/1/2014 at 4:52 PM, snywx said:

It very rarely rains with these setups up here. Its literally night and day in comparison to the coast with swfes. We may end as some fzdz but the snow usually comes in like a wall and over produces. 

usually , but the 12z gfs would bring alot of rain area wide. im hoping for 5-6 followed by a ton of sleet than ending as fdzl or drzl.  of course id really want all snow but thats not happening

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chietanen

chietanen

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  On 2/1/2014 at 4:20 PM, Darkstar said:

Not sure if I am looking at the same model, but it seems the HV will switch over to a mix after a front end dump on the 12Z GFS.

 I would not go all in for a big snow storm yet.

 

Definitely an improvement, though verbatim shows nearly half an inch of freezing rain after a big dump of snow (for KPOU)

 

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KPOU&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

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  On 2/1/2014 at 4:55 PM, rgwp96 said:

usually , but the 12z gfs would bring alot of rain area wide. im hoping for 5-6 followed by a ton of sleet than ending as fdzl or drzl.  of course id really want all snow but thats not happening

 

I don't think the gfs setup would be a lot of rain, as said above, these storms are pretty predictable in Orange County northward, heavy thump of snow, then some sleet/zr then maybe drizzle or dryslotting. In NYC Metro it's a different animal, they will see heavy rain and probably anyone within 30-40 miles of NYC will change to at least some heavy rain. I'm kind of new on here so for the record I'm usually not that optimistic about storms, but for this particular setup I am pretty confident this will be mostly frozen precip from at least from say Orange/Putnam counties and and points north.

 

If this does bust low on snow, it will be a skating rink in these zones, not a river.

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rgwp96

rgwp96

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  On 2/1/2014 at 4:59 PM, HVSnowLover said:

I don't think the gfs setup would be a lot of rain, as said above, these storms are pretty predictable in Orange County northward, heavy thump of snow, then some sleet/zr then maybe drizzle or dryslotting. In NYC Metro it's a different animal, they will see heavy rain and probably anyone within 30-40 miles of NYC will change to at least some heavy rain. I'm kind of new on here so for the record I'm usually not that optimistic about storms, but for this particular setup I am pretty confident this will be mostly frozen precip from at least from say Orange/Putnam counties and and points north.

 

If this does bust low on snow, it will be a skating rink in these zones, not a river.

u guys would love the ggem. all snow for u guys and would have my area snow to sleet back to snow.  has the low forming on nj coast

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snywx

snywx

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  On 2/1/2014 at 4:59 PM, HVSnowLover said:

I don't think the gfs setup would be a lot of rain, as said above, these storms are pretty predictable in Orange County northward, heavy thump of snow, then some sleet/zr then maybe drizzle or dryslotting. In NYC Metro it's a different animal, they will see heavy rain and probably anyone within 30-40 miles of NYC will change to at least some heavy rain. I'm kind of new on here so for the record I'm usually not that optimistic about storms, but for this particular setup I am pretty confident this will be mostly frozen precip from at least from say Orange/Putnam counties and and points north.

 

If this does bust low on snow, it will be a skating rink in these zones, not a river.

 

I agree 100%.. Temps will most likely stay below freezing through the entire event so if mid levels warm faster than anticipated then its really gonna be a disaster up here.

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

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  On 2/1/2014 at 5:11 PM, rgwp96 said:

yup has low forming way south than gfs on nj coast. u guys would be all snow

That's why I'm not worried about rain with this threat, GFS only has a little rain here at the end and it's the northern most model at the moment. I think the HV is in a good spot with this one. CMC might be a bit too far south but we'll have to see, last nights Euro wasn't too far off from what the CMC is showing.

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itsdnice

itsdnice

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From the 7:10pm NWS Albany discussion. They seem pretty confident in this system I'd say.

 

INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES AT ALL LEVELS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE ALL SNOW ALL ZONES...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOMETIME
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING.  EXPECTING SUBSTANTIAL
OVERRUNNING...AND BROAD-REACHING REGIONAL IMPACT...WITH AN EXCELLENT
CHANCE THAT OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOOKING AT VERY
SIGNIFICANT PURE SNOW POTENTIAL.  MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LOOKS IN
ORDER FOR MOST OF THE CALENDAR DAY WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN WITH RAPID
PROGRESSION...THIS COULD BE OUR HEAVIEST SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON.
ALREADY 3 TO 6 INCHES COULD BE ON THE GROUND BY DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO EASILY CATEGORICAL THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE FOR WEDNESDAY.

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rgwp96

rgwp96

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  On 2/1/2014 at 10:53 PM, Darkstar said:

I reviewed the Mt Holly & Upton discussion for the mid week threat.

Mt Holly - not to impressed - sleet freezing rain likely.

Upton - More impressed  - snow mostly interior, some mix possible at some point. 

 

Monday event - 1-2 inches seems likely.

yea i just mentioned that about mt holly. every model shows a healthy front end snow event in many of there zones yet they mention no snow at all?

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chietanen

chietanen

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  On 2/2/2014 at 12:36 AM, itsdnice said:

From the 7:10pm NWS Albany discussion. They seem pretty confident in this system I'd say.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES AT ALL LEVELS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH

TO PRODUCE ALL SNOW ALL ZONES...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOMETIME

AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING SUBSTANTIAL

OVERRUNNING...AND BROAD-REACHING REGIONAL IMPACT...WITH AN EXCELLENT

CHANCE THAT OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOOKING AT VERY

SIGNIFICANT PURE SNOW POTENTIAL. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LOOKS IN

ORDER FOR MOST OF THE CALENDAR DAY WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN WITH RAPID

PROGRESSION...THIS COULD BE OUR HEAVIEST SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON.

ALREADY 3 TO 6 INCHES COULD BE ON THE GROUND BY DAYBREAK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO EASILY CATEGORICAL THIS FAR IN

ADVANCE FOR WEDNESDAY.

Albany is usually pretty bearish when it comes to snow potential, so this is nice to see. Though I will say that they also usually seem to weigh their forecast heavily from the Capital District north.

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Animal

Animal

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  On 2/2/2014 at 12:44 AM, rgwp96 said:

yea i just mentioned that about mt holly. every model shows a healthy front end snow event in many of there zones yet they mention no snow at all?

 

 

they have been terrible in our area this season. Also as it is the weekend. I don't think Tony or Walt are at the wheel!

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NepaJames8602

NepaJames8602

Posted
Posted
  On 2/2/2014 at 12:52 AM, itsdnice said:

I wish BGM was as positive in the their last discussion ..then again we are still 4 days away.

 

Ha, you'll come to learn BGM typically is the most conservative, and the last to pull the trigger for many events. After living in the Binghamton CWA for over 16 years now, you become accustom to it.

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