Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall

[BuffaloWeather]

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAYMORNING. SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURSDURING THE TRANSITION.A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATEACCUMULATION OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A MIXED BAG OFPRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY THENCHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO JUST RAINBY MONDAY.FINALLY...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEXT TUESDAYAND WEDNESDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR ENTERS THE REGION.

Lake effect snow is so much more fun than the synoptic stuff. Cannot wait to see the band off lake Erie!

[Leelee]

I'm getting excited for that Tuesday night period. Looks like all the ingredients are there for good LES in many models. Lows north of the Great Lakes circulating cold, moist air on that W-SW flow. Hopefully it stays that way.

[heavy_wx]

I'm getting excited for that Tuesday night period. Looks like all the ingredients are there for good LES in many models. Lows north of the Great Lakes circulating cold, moist air on that W-SW flow. Hopefully it stays that way.

 

Could be one of the first solid lake-effect events of the year with the 12z GFS keeping decent flow in place until at least Thursday. Also a nice start for the lake-effect grant that will be in the area mainly east of Lake Ontario this winter.

[BuffaloWeather]

I'm getting excited for that Tuesday night period. Looks like all the ingredients are there for good LES in many models. Lows north of the Great Lakes circulating cold, moist air on that W-SW flow. Hopefully it stays that way.

 

Hey lee are you the same lee from the Bills forums, If so Hi! I see you post on there sometimes . And Yeah I am pumped for that timeframe, even if its a short lived event there is something about Lake effect that blows all other winter storms out of the water haha.

[BuffaloWeather]

Latest from NWS:

 

LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP MID LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE AIRMASS BECOMES PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH ABOUT -16C AT 850MB ON
TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THAT WEDNESDAY. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FITS THE ANALOG FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES. THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE MEAN WNW FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT 12Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MOST NOTABLE OF THESE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. EACH OF THESE WAVES CAN RESULT IN SUBTLE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CHANGES WHICH CAN MOVE LAKE BANDS AROUND AND ALSO
MODULATE INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION.

WHILE THE DETAILS CANNOT BE PREDICTED WITH ANY CONFIDENCE AT THIS
LEAD TIME...THE PATTERN NONETHELESS APPEARS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES. STAY TUNED.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I'll be in Rochester on Saturday and Sunday. Will there be any light snow in that region on Saturday morning?

[Leelee]

Hey lee are you the same lee from the Bills forums, If so Hi! I see you post on there sometimes . And Yeah I am pumped for that timeframe, even if its a short lived event there is something about Lake effect that blows all other winter storms out of the water haha.

Yes, I am. I don't get along well with homers.

 

I'm kinda surprised NWS said a mean WNW flow. I still have hope for Tuesday night period. It's been a few years since we got a nice 250-255 flow event that buried me (S Buffalo/W Seneca area). We always get sandwiched in nothing with the NW stuff.

[BuffaloWeather]

Yes, I am. I don't get along well with homers.

 

I'm kinda surprised NWS said a mean WNW flow. I still have hope for Tuesday night period. It's been a few years since we got a nice 250-255 flow event that buried me (S Buffalo/W Seneca area). We always get sandwiched in nothing with the NW stuff.

 

haha! I actually find that the Bills forums are much more optimistic and nicer than the Sabres forums on HFboards. I mean no playoffs for 14 years and they still have hope in there team making the playoffs at 4-8, thats a true fan! I think everyone is going to get something from the LES, there are a few shortwaves in the flow that will spray most of the region with some LES. But its still to far out to get excited. Hopefully OSU can chime in on the potential soon!

[heavy_wx]

The CIPS analogs based on the 120h forecast from the 00z GFS are pretty favorable for a significant lake-effect snow event. The top two analogs, 1/19/08 and 1/7/04 were both impressive events. The 1/19/08 storm gave some locations east of Lake Ontario three feet of accumulation and one foot east of Lake Erie. The other event had maximum accumulations over two feet east of both lakes.

[LakeEffectKing]

 

The CIPS analogs based on the 120h forecast from the 00z GFS are pretty favorable for a significant lake-effect snow event. The top two analogs, 1/19/08 and 1/7/04 were both impressive events. The 1/19/08 storm gave some locations east of Lake Ontario three feet of accumulation and one foot east of Lake Erie. The other event had maximum accumulations over two feet east of both lakes.

 First good test of the ongoing LES study group! http://wxxinews.org/post/scientists-gather-locally-study-lake-effect-snow

If I didn't have so much to freakin do at work, I'd be up E. of Ontario in a heartbeat! Hopefully there will be an event over X-mas (I get 12 days off )

Looks to be a really good event! But I've seen better 5 day lead setups fall apart to a few flurries! Good times though!!

[OSUmetstud]

I'd look to Tuesday afternoon/evening for BUF metro to get into the LES action.  After, it looks well south. 

[OSUmetstud]

Yes, I am. I don't get along well with homers.

 

I'm kinda surprised NWS said a mean WNW flow. I still have hope for Tuesday night period. It's been a few years since we got a nice 250-255 flow event that buried me (S Buffalo/W Seneca area). We always get sandwiched in nothing with the NW stuff.

that was an epic event in december 2010 for that area.  And the last two winters haven't been kind to anyone in this region lol.  

[OSUmetstud]

Btw, I moved from West Seneca to Lackawanna back in July.  Probably doesn't mean all that much in the snow department I'd think.  I'm a couple miles further south but also a mile further west.  I'm on Abbott Rd, about 3.5 miles north of the Ralph.  

[BuffaloWeather]

I'd look to Tuesday afternoon/evening for BUF metro to get into the LES action.  After, it looks well south. 

 

Monday night as well as mentioned by the NWS or is the atmosphere to dry at that time? The NWS mentions several shortwaves coming through that may cause veering as well. I know slight differences in wind direction are hard to predict this far out as well.

[OSUmetstud]

Monday night as well as mentioned by the NWS or is the atmosphere to dry at that time? The NWS mentions several shortwaves coming through that may cause veering as well. I know slight differences in wind direction are hard to predict this far out as well.

I think Monday night looks a bit too dry, plus we are still under cold air advection (downward vertical motion) behind the cold front.  I think the PV placement is too dominant to our north to see a full scale wind direction shift from WNW to WSW/SW after the shortwave passage on Tuesday night.  

[OSUmetstud]

Btw, I believe Buffalo NWS does think there will be a significant metro impact otherwise they wouldn't have sounded so giddy in forecast discussion.  

[BuffaloWeather]

Btw, I believe Buffalo NWS does think there will be a significant metro impact otherwise they wouldn't have sounded so giddy in forecast discussion.  

 

Haha! You should see Tom Niziol on TWC when Buffalo is going to receive LES if you want to see Giddy.

[heavy_wx]

 

 First good test of the ongoing LES study group! http://wxxinews.org/post/scientists-gather-locally-study-lake-effect-snow

If I didn't have so much to freakin do at work, I'd be up E. of Ontario in a heartbeat! Hopefully there will be an event over X-mas (I get 12 days off )

Looks to be a really good event! But I've seen better 5 day lead setups fall apart to a few flurries! Good times though!!

 

Yeah, it's definitely good timing for the grant up there. Hopefully it stays looking favorable. By the way, here is the facebook page for the project in case anyone is interested in following the field research.

 

https://www.facebook.com/OWLeSProject

[OSUmetstud]

I feel like I graduated from SUNY Oswego too early lol.  We were discussing the prospects of that project before I graduated in 2007.  It was cool to work as a research assistant though on a smaller LES modeling project with NWS BUF and COMET before I left.  

[Leelee]

Various outlets were excited about Metro LES potential a couple days ago, that's died down to a chance and other words to cover themselves.

 

Maybe the NWS is excited about the ski areas getting snow.

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks to me like they are still calling for it.

 

Buffalo NWS:

 

BY MONDAY EVENING...OUR AIRMASS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
LAKE RESPONSE NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND WILL CONTINUE TO GET EVEN
COLDER THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER A STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
THIS STATED...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL BE
SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND WILL
PRODUCE BOTH A FAIRLY LOW CAP OF AROUND 4-5 KFT AND NOTABLE DRYING
BELOW THE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
LIMITED IN NATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CONFINED POPS NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES TO THE LOW-MID CHANCE RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
REST OF THE AREA REMAINING MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP BACK TO THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.

 

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING FROM HUDSON BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -15C TUESDAY AND TO -18C/-20C BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SUCH
A PATTERN IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE LOOKS TO
BECOME MOST FAVORABLE SOMETIME FROM LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPTICK IN BACKGROUND
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE.

AT THIS STILL-DISTANT JUNCTURE...DEPICTING THE EXACT LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AT ANY GIVEN POINT IN TIME
REMAINS A HIGHLY DIFFICULT EXERCISE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF NUMEROUS
SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...
WHICH WILL PRODUCE UNDULATIONS IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW THAT
SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECT BOTH BAND PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY. THIS
STATED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT ON
DEPICTING THE MOST NOTEWORTHY OF THESE PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A MORE
STEADY-STATE WESTERLY FLOW POTENTIALLY SETTING UP AFTER THAT TIME.
STAY TUNED!

 

CPC:

 

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BACK-TO-BACK COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, FOLLOWED BY LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SQUALLS DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. POST-FRONTAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL DOWNWIND OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE.

[BuffaloWeather]

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT

SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH

THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES.

* TIMING AND HAZARDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR LESS TONIGHT AND AN

INCH OR LESS MONDAY. ICE ACCUMULATING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN

INCH. SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 INCHES OR MORE FROM

TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.

[heavy_wx]

Wednesday is looking very favorable on the Euro off of both lakes on a general westerly flow. The parameters east of Lake Ontario are a bit more impressive with a high moisture profile and little shear up to at least 700 mb. 850 mb temperatures around -13C will lead to high lake induced instability as well as a significant layer in the dendritic snow growth zone.

 

The CIPS analogs centered over Wednesday at 12z are pretty bullish as well, with a mean snowfall over 72 hrs well over a foot on the tug hill and over ten inches east of Lake Erie.

[OSUmetstud]

ugh lol

 

INDS SHOULD BACK TO MORE OF
A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY
SEND THE STILL-LIMITED LAKE SNOWS BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE BUFFALO
AND WATERTOWN AREAS. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THESE MAY BEGIN TO PICK
UP A LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH
ACTS TO LIFT THE CAP SOMEWHAT WHILE ALSO BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE...BOTH THE AMOUNT AND RATE OF
THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC SETUP REMAINS IN
QUESTION GIVEN CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...FOR NOW FEEL IT BEST TO AIM A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE AND
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY BY BUMPING POPS UP TO LIKELY NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES...WHERE SOME MINOR ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR SO APPEAR TO BE
POSSIBLE.

[OSUmetstud]

It's quite obvious the 18z NAM has very heavy snow for BUF around 00z Tuesday evening.  It has -30 ubar/sec through the SGZ and well-aligned 250 flow with a moderately/extremely unstable moist profile on BUFKIT. 

 

Those of us in BUF metro and the immediate suburbs have to hope that the band organizes quickly as the shortwave approaches and really goes to town before the flow quickly goes westerly after it's passage.  

[OSUmetstud]

This should be a good event but not a great event, and here is why.  The PV location, which is dictated by the hemispheric pattern is wholly too far north.  We don't have a -NAO which would shove the PV further south and squash the fast flow dictated by the SE ridge.  The best LES conditions are always on the cold side of the upper level jet, where cold air and moisture are deep and shear is light.  You'll always have mitigating issues on the fringe which is where our area of the world is located at the moment.  

 

[heavy_wx]

This should be a good event but not a great event, and here is why.  The PV location, which is dictated by the hemispheric pattern is wholly too far north.  We don't have a -NAO which would shove the PV further south and squash the fast flow dictated by the SE ridge.  The best LES conditions are always on the cold side of the upper level jet, where cold air and moisture are deep and shear is light.  You'll always have mitigating issues on the fringe which is where our area of the world is located at the moment.

 

Perhaps. There isn't much shear between the surface and 800 mb on the Euro for 00z Thursday east of Lake Ontario. The winds do get pretty strong (about 45 kts) around 700 mb so that will be something to watch. Otherwise, the profile is pretty moist up to 700 mb, the instability is high and the westerly flow is pretty well-aligned.

 

Another advantage to having a -NAO would be to prolong the favorable conditions by having a strong blocking ridge. This event may produce a significant band but it probably won't be sustained over more than a couple days, reducing the chance of any epic totals.

[OSUmetstud]

Perhaps. There isn't much shear between the surface and 800 mb on the Euro for 00z Thursday east of Lake Ontario. The winds do get pretty strong (about 45 kts) around 700 mb so that will be something to watch. Otherwise, the profile is pretty moist up to 700 mb, the instability is high and the westerly flow is pretty well-aligned.

 

Another advantage to having a -NAO would be to prolong the favorable conditions by having a strong blocking ridge. This event may produce a significant band but it probably won't be sustained over more than a couple days, reducing the chance of any epic totals.

I said the best for a reason though lol.  I'm sure this will be a good event for east of Lake Ontario.  I'm looking at LE3 on the 18z gfs on BUFKIT and there are some moisture and shear issues on Wednesday and Thursday.  Those issues wouldn't be there if the PV were another 500-600 miles south.  The strip from Superior to south Quebec is ideal, not central Hudson Bay.  

[heavy_wx]

I said the best for a reason though lol.  I'm sure this will be a good event for east of Lake Ontario.  I'm looking at LE3 on the 18z gfs on BUFKIT and there are some moisture and shear issues on Wednesday and Thursday.  Those issues wouldn't be there if the PV were another 500-600 miles south.  The strip from Superior to south Quebec is ideal, not central Hudson Bay.  

 

True, a lot of the prolific lake-effect events did have the PV over Quebec and the 500 mb wind max south of the area. January 2004 is a good example.

 

[OSUmetstud]

yep...feb 2007, dec 2001, nov 2000, dec 1995, all have that look.  

True, a lot of the prolific lake-effect events did have the PV over Quebec and the 500 mb wind max south of the area. January 2004 is a good example.